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The Daily Search for Rain

Good Tuesday bloggers,

The new data is rolling in and there are going to be rain chances Thursday-Sunday as a series of disturbances track in from the northwest. A front will be wavering across the Plains as well. So, these features will produce rain and thunderstorms, but as we know there are going to be locations that receive very little to nothing.

We will go day by day through Sunday with the new data, in the search for rain.

TODAY-WEDNESDAY: Today will be sunny and very nice with lower humidity drifting in on a light north wind. A disturbance will move through Wednesday, but since the humidity will be low, we will see a period of clouds with little to no rain.

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WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY: A new disturbance will come in from the northwest and there will be a nice area of rain and thunderstorms from northern Kansas to Iowa, on our doorstep.

2

THURSDAY MORNING: The rain and thunderstorms will most likely track to the west of our area. However, we will possibly see some showers move through on the eastern edge of the main area of rain and thunderstorms. We will watch this closely as a slight shift east, or if it can hold together another 5-10 hours, we could see a better rain event.

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THURSDAY AFTERNOON: The large area of rain will shift south and weaken. We will be left with clouds and mild temperatures around 80°.

4

FRIDAY: The main rain activity will be organizing in the western Plains. We have a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms on the eastern edge of the main developing area. This main area will impact the weekend.

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SATURDAY: As it stands now, the best chance of widespread rain will be on this day. It also looks like the heaviest will be south of I-70, missing the hard hit drought areas of northern Missouri. If we get this rain in the middle of the day, temperatures will be in the 60s and low 70s!

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SUNDAY: There may be some new rain as the last system moves by.

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RAINFALL FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY: The latest data is still showing very little rain across northern Missouri. This is an area that desperately needs the rain. South of I-70 has the best chance to see significant rain. We still have these areas in a 0.01″ to 2″ rainfall potential, because even in the locations that see the most rain there have been locations that see under 0.10″. There are also locations in the main rain areas that see over 2″ of rain.

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The data used above is from the 12z Tuesday GFS. There are still many questions on timing and track of these systems. There are solutions where the heaviest rain is north of I-70. There are solutions where the best chance of rain is Saturday night and Sunday.

We will follow this each day. Let’s hope whatever the solution, that all yards and farms receive beneficial rain.

Have a great rest of your week.

Jeff Penner

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