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The Cycling Weather Pattern Presentation

Good morning weather bloggers & Weather2020.com bloggers,

The blogs have been combined and the process is almost complete. Sometime next week we will likely be opening up the comments on the Action Weather Blog on KSHB.com. The comments will stay open on Weather2020.com as well, but I can imagine most of the bloggers will be coming to the popular KSHB blog to comment in the future. We look forward to sharing with you our weather expertise, analysis, and more.  The rules will be very strict to keep trolls out of the blog that messed with it in the past. There will be immediate banning of any blogger who clearly breaks the rules. This is a great place to share in this weather experience. It will be a positive experience, and one of the rules will be strictly enforced. If the moderators deem that any blogger is creating a negative experience, then that blogger will be banned.  If the blogger that gets banned wants to be reinstated, then and only then they must email us to discuss why there was a banning and to discuss if they would like to abide by the rules of the blog and then there will be a decision to allow the blogger to get back into the conversation.

Friday is a big day, but there are even bigger days ahead of us. I will be presenting the Cycling Weather Pattern Hypothesis, to be renamed the CWP from the going name LRC until the peer review process is over.  We have a paper written, and it will be submitted for review in various journals until it is accepted.  We are in the process of doing this now.  Part of this presentation will be in my talk on Friday morning which we are broadcasting live on www.Facebook.com/GaryLezak. Go like that page and watch in the morning. Before I show you some high-lights here, let’s look at the pattern tonight.

The surface forecast at 4 AM:

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There is a cold front moving through Friday morning, early in the day in Kansas City. A band of thunderstorms will be likely near this front.  As you can see above, this front is located near KC at 4 AM with thunderstorms along it, and you can also see the remnants of Tropical Storm Cindy over southeastern Arkansas.  This storm has been producing many small spin-ups with many tornado warnings. Let’s track the front and Cindy together in our comments section Weather2020.com.

The Cycling Pattern Hypothesis (CPH):

The cycling weather pattern has been shared on both blogs for many years. The LRC will now be named the CPH for now.  In this years examples we have shown pattern recognition, the ART to the CPH, in dozens examples as we do each year. This year’s pattern has been cycling in the 56-61 day range since it started in October, centered on 58.5 days, or narrowing in on 58-59 days. This is of extreme importance because there is a huge astronomical event in a total eclipse of the sun on August 21st, around 1:15 PM near Kansas City.  When is August 21st?  59 days from June 23rd, or Friday, today if you are reading this on Friday.  Can you believe that here I am presenting the hypothesis on the day that just happens to fall on the most important cycle date.

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Astronemers are likely the best forecasters in the world and they get very little credit. Look at what they know:

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They are so good at knowing these cycles that they can predict down to the second at when the eclipse will begin. Think about this?  And, we have been sharing with you the cycling weather pattern according to my hypothesis for years. The weather pattern is also cycling regularly, but due to the fact that it is a fluid and has “earthly” factors, the cycle oscillates.  This year’s pattern is in the 56-61 day range:

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There are three main aspects to our hypothesis as you can see above. In the past we have shown you, what is called, Qualitative Analysis or the map to map comparisons. This is the ART. But, now we have the science:

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This graph above shows the Cycling Pattern Index (CPI).  You can see the first four cycles of the pattern. We use Chicago for the CPI as most of the cycling pattern within the westerly belt gets reflected well at the Chicago latitude.  When there is a dip into negative territory this would be a likely storm moving by. Notice how the cycles really line up well when these storm systems and ridges are moving by. There are harmonics of the pattern that really line up extremely well:

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We noticed that the map to map comparisons in cycles 2 and 4 were ridiculously similar.  Analysis has been done quantitatively (SCIENCE) to find out if our “ART” in the pattern recognition lines up with the mathematical analysis. The graph above shows how 59 days lines up. We analyzed all of the possible cycle lengths in the 50 to 65 day range that we saw artistically. Look at the results:

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I was able to find the cycle in December to likely be in the 58.5 day range, and we shared it with you in the blogs.  And, now as you can see above it has been verified and validated. The most likely cycle length in these 20 day periods is indeed 58.5 days. Eswar Iyer did this analysis. Eswar is about to receive his Masters in Meteorology degree from the University of Oklahoma.

When did I find that the pattern was likely cycling and regularly?  Take a look at my second slide in Friday’s presentation:

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This is a mural on my wall at home. It is the only picture in my office. I have friends from college who say I talked about this around 1982 or 1983, but it was the winter of 1987-1988 that the “lightbulb” went off. Oklahoma City averages 8 inches of snow a year. 30 years ago, this next winter, there was a one inch snowstorm in November. In December there was a one foot snowstorm followed by a major ice storm around the holidays. That is my CRX in the KWTV-9 parking lot.  In late January there was another one foot snowstorm. WHAT? Really? A second one foot snowstorm in a city that averages 8 inches of snow a year?  It was that second one foot snowstorm, around 45 days after the first one, that I noticed something incredible.  The pattern looked almost identical. This is what sparked this 30-year, or really life-long quest to bring this technology to the world. It took 15 more years from that point in 1988 to finally realize that it was the entire pattern within the westerly belt that is cycling. And, here we are 30 years later and there has yet to be anything published on this extremely important technology. I believe and feel it will create a paradigm shift in meteorology.  And, yes, it can be used to predict specific events 100 to 300 days into the future. There is a huge limit, however.  A new, unique pattern will set up next fall. Forecasting the weather using our hypothesis is likely impossible in October. Maybe in November it starts to become possible, then in December it becomes a great tool. And, then from January through September it may very well be shown to be the best weather model in the world.  There is a lot more research and work to do.

Thank you for sharing in this weather experience. Have a great weekend. Watch the presentation and let’s see what questions get thrown our way. I plan on attending the big AMS conference in Austin, TX next January and plan on presenting the peer reviewed paper and published article at that time.

Gary

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