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The Cycling Pattern Hypothesis Accuracy: Drought To Deluge-Wet or Dry Close By

Good morning bloggers,

Today we will look at the fascinating distribution of rainfall through the plains.  In the early winter Weather2020 made a prediction that a drought would develop and expand in response to the mean ridge that has been a major part of this years cycling pattern.  This mean ridge was one of the biggest reasons for why snowfall totals were so low this past winter over many areas.  The pattern continues to cycle according to the Cycling Pattern Hypothesis and the new and unique pattern is still five to six weeks away from setting up.  Remember, this years pattern is cycling in the 56-61 day range centered on 58.5 days.  We have been using 59 as the main cycle length, but it still oscillates in that 56-61 day range. This is how Weather2020 made an incredibly accurate prediction for what was going to happen on eclipse day 55 days before  Mondays total eclipse of the sun.  Weather2020 has been making incredibly increasingly more accurate forecasts for years and we continue to learn more as we conduct our research.  Today is yet another example of seeing how having knowledge of the cycling pattern works.  What happened in Kansas City 59 days ago?  Do you remember?  It was late June. 59 days before August 23rd is June 25th.  Take a look:

  • June 25th in Kansas City:  Sunny with high pressure in control.  There were light winds. High: 76°, Low: 54°
  • 59 days later today:  Sunny with high pressure in control.  There will be very light winds. High:  79°, Low:  56°

Incredible. Just think about it. There was a pretty lively discussion on the blog yesterday, and we have had many discussions over the past 15 years that we have been sharing this with you.  Oh, yes, our peers are pretty skeptical, but skepticism is part of being a scientist. They need to open their mind a bit more to what is actually happening in the cycling pattern within the westerly belt. And, yes, we have a peer review paper that is currently being revised for submission. We will be sharing this paper in a few months.  You can get down to a specific date, all the way down to the level of predicting where a tornado is most likely going to occur using this technology.  We predicted the Super Bowl forecast for the outdoor event in East Rutherford New Jersey.  Here is the link to that forecast from over 3 years ago that made it into NJ.com:  Super Bowl Prediction Published  And, today’s example is a perfect example of how a prediction of todays weather could have been made for todays date.  We don’t mind the criticism at all. Those of you who are skeptical that we can do any of this is somewhat baffling to us, but also understandable.  We will present our hypothesis in a peer review format soon, but we have been presenting it here for years already.

So, where is the drought that we predicted would grow this spring and summer. Kansas City is certainly in about the exact opposite of a drought right? Well look at the drought monitor:

current_usdm

Well, there it is. The drought actually did develop. So many of our readers are from Kansas City, so when I am wrong for this one region, my goodness, do we hear about it, and we should.  Did I expect 28.80 inches of rain to fall during the summer months near Kansas City? NO WAY? We were under that ridge, right. Well, the ridges never stopped moving.  The cycling pattern produced this set up for the summer, but the drought did indeed form and not that far away.  Take a look at these rainfall totals:

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I think Mother Nature wanted to just let me have it for predicting a dry pattern.  Is there a way to have made a prediction for this one rather localized area to be targeted over and over again using the Cycling Pattern Hypothesis? I believe there is a way, and we have done it many times. But, this one I did not forecast well at all.  And, as a result my water bill was an all time low this summer as I never turned on my water the entire summer. That is pretty hard to believe.

So, what is next?

Screen Shot 2017-08-23 at 7.25.56 AM

High pressure is in control for a few days while we watch a potential hurricane developing in the Gulf of Mexico. Harvey will likely regenerate today and the water is very warm, it will move slowly, and it may have enough time to strengthen significantly. This will grab weather attention around the USA in the next 48 hours. Could this have been predicted using the Cycling Pattern Hypothesis? YES, and we did make this prediction, and I can show you how it can be done.  We made a prediction for this to form around eclipse week, and it was discussed in this blog.

Have a great day and thank you for sharing in this weather experience. Join in the conversation over on the Weather2020 blog if you want.  Go Royals!

Gary

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1 comment to The Cycling Pattern Hypothesis Accuracy: Drought To Deluge-Wet or Dry Close By

  • Sheryl3

    Gary,
    The new pattern sets up every fall, and that seems to be true. What influences the change in the cycle from year to year causing a new cycle to develop and the old cycle to end?
    Thanks!
    Sheryl