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The Cold Pattern Continues: The Reason Why & The Explanation

Good morning bloggers,

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IMG_3135Thunder Graupel! Yes, this is what happened yesterday on the south side of the KC metro area. I was standing outside about to do an Instagram video (you can follow Sunny The Weather Dog on Instagram), and a Facebook Live and just as I was about to start we had a very loud roaring, the sound of thunder from a lightning bolt that likely forked across the sky above Kansas City Easter Sunday afternoon.  There would be three or four more rolling sounds of thunder in the next hour even though the thunderstorm producing the lightning was around 30 miles away.  What happened next was just as fascinating; graupel.  Yes snow pellets, or really a conglomeration of snow, sleet, rain, and hail all spun together in these little snow pellets, not quite sleet, not quite hail, not quite rain, and not quite snow, as you can see in my hand here.  It came down hard and I ended up with exactly 1″ accumulation. KCI Airport had 1.0″ of snow for a season total of 6.8″ now. 6.8 inches of snow in NINE snowfalls. You can do the math! Add in the past three winters before this one and we are at around 41 snows and 32″ of snow total or less than a 1″ per snow average. Now, we did not miss it by much. 5 to 6 inches of snow fell over some locations in northern Missouri.

What is causing this cold weather pattern? What is the reason? Take a look at this map to map comparison:

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The explanation for what is going on is the LRC. The weather pattern is cycling regularly around every 44 to 51 days, centered on 47 to 48 days. The top left map above is the pattern on November 9th, and the bottom right map is from March 30th. These two dates are exactly 141 days apart, or 47 times 3.  All four cycles can be seen on this one snapshot in time.  The explanation of this pattern is the cycle and pattern that set up last October and November, and it will continue through next September.  Yes, this part of the pattern will cycle back through in mid-May and right before July 4th.

The reason for why it is so cold right now is the blocking that developed a few weeks ago in early March and it has developed again now:

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You can see the blocking highs on Wednesdays forecast map above.  These high height areas help force the jet stream to be a bit stronger and farther south. In March, this had the most impact on the northeastern United States and over California with major storm after major storm. Over the plains the impacts have finally been felt with this recent snow in Missouri and our graupel thunderstorm.

This next map shows the Arctic high forming this week. And, this likely means another very strong cold front will blast through, in fact two of them. One of them on Tuesday, and then the second one later in the week.

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The first system is getting organized today and tonight. Here is a surface forecast valid at midnight central time tonight.

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Thank you for sharing in this weather experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. Go over to the blog at Weather2020.com to join in the conversation.  Have a great day.

Gary

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1 comment to The Cold Pattern Continues: The Reason Why & The Explanation

  • overlandpark4me

    Weather Underground is trying to put in 1-3 inches of snow on Friday lol. I don’t think so.