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The Changing Pattern – Three Weeks Into This

Good morning bloggers,

Kansas City Weather Time-Line:

  • Today:  Mostly sunny and breezy with temperatures warming to near 70°
  • Tonight:  Turning much colder, windy, with a few periods of clouds.  Low:  34°
  • Friday:  Mostly sunny with a few clouds at times. Windy and colder. Northwest winds 20-35 mph.  High:  44°
  • Saturday:  Freeze Warning. Low:  29°

Weather Discussion:

Let me begin by explaining how fascinating this cycling weather pattern is as we discuss these first three weeks of this years LRC.  There are many of you that have followed our discussions in the blogs and on television for years, some of you for 15 years. And, there are others that are brand new to this concept. There are three main aspects to the LRC.

The LRC:

  • A unique weather pattern sets up every year between around October 1st and November 30th.  The first day of the new pattern is around the end of the first week of October or around October 7th give or take a few days. We have identified a possible caused of this beginning to the cycle as the sun sets at the North Pole on the Autumnal Equinox, and then it is twilight for almost two weeks and this twilight ends around October 5th to 7th each year. This is about the same time that the LRC begins.
  • Long-term long wave troughs and ridges set up and become established for the entire next year from October through September. These features are where storm systems reach their peak strength and weakest strength most often
  • The pattern is cycling and regularly.  This cycle becomes established in October and November, but it can not be identified and verified until we go deeper into the second cycle of the pattern, and this usually happens in December and our confidence is achieved by early January at the latest.

We have identified a quantifiable way of finding the cycle a bit earlier and this is part of our research paper this is in the review process.  The weather pattern is now likely set for the year but we have only seen these first three weeks of this weather pattern.

1The weather pattern is definitely unique. This means it has never happened before, which is one of the main aspects of the LRC.  One of the big features to monitor is over Alaska and over Greenland. This map on the left shows the height anomalies at 500 mb, around 18,000 feet up.  Notice the above average heights from Alaska to the North Pole with the below average heights over Canada extending south into the Great Lakes.  This is valid around one week from now.  Some blocking at high latitudes is trying to develop.  This will lead to some very cold air forming over northern Canada during this next ten day to two week stretch.

What happens next is very important and we will see a lot of what this pattern will mean for this up coming winter season soon.  But, we have to experience it first. I can’t stress this more. These other forecasts that have come out way too early, in my opinion, did not include the biggest piece of the weather puzzle.  This puzzle is now coming together and this map on the left is important for many reasons, and i am just now beginning to “see” the answer to this winters forecast problem. There are many questions and answers that will continue to come up and I will share them with you in this Action Weather blog featuring Weather2020 and the cycling pattern.  Go to Weather2020.com and ask us any questions you would like. This subject will be discussed a lot more as we get closer to issuing our winter forecast in just four weeks.

A fantasy weather model at 372 hours? Well, likely yes, but this “look” has now happened many times since the pattern began around that first week of October.  There is a storm over Kansas and Missouri on this November 10th, forecast, and the kicker upstream as well is something we have seen multiple times. This was discussed in the video blog earlier in the week, so go back and take a look.

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Again, I stress patience. If I was going to make a preliminary look into winter based on these first 21 days I would lean to KC having at least average snowfall this season. We have had a total of 24 inches in three years or 1000 days of weather patterns. 24 inches in 1,000 days. So, 18 inches of snow or more would certainly seem like a lot to any of us who have just experienced these past three winters. Another stat I will be throwing out there is the fact that there have been 31 days with measurable snowfall the past three winter seasons. 31 dates and only 24″ of snow. I will let you do the math on that one.

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You can enter the snowflake contest now.  I will have my forecast as we get close to the deadline, unless a good chance starts realistically showing up. Have a great day!

Gary

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