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The Changing Pattern

Good morning bloggers,

A unique pattern is setting up right before our eyes and it is likely about half way to becoming set for the season.  It is still evolving. Let’s take a look:

1This map on the left shows the 500 mb flow valid today around 1 PM.  There is a negatively tilted trough in the middle of the nation centered near Kansas City. This system has been carved out by a series of many waves. It should not have stayed so dry yesterday, and yet it did stay dry in KC.  I only saw a few drops of rain.  This storm will produce some significant severe weather today, however, and due south of Kansas City.  More on this severe weather risk in just a second.  There is ridging near the west coast, and California has been very dry at the beginning of this years pattern, which is a concern despite a developing El Niño event.

Look at what happens next as you can see on the right.

2This next map shows the 500 mb map valid at midnight next Tuesday morning.  I made a mistake when I typed in the 1 AM Tuesday, as there will have been the time change by then, and we gain an extra hour. Even better, we get to see the new data an hour earlier for the next five months.  What are we seeing on this map?  Another negatively tilted trough centered near KC.  This should be, and likely will become a rather strong storm system.  Yet, as it is passing be KC, what will it produce.  This is an indication of an anchor trough, and may be a good indication for KC this winter.  These two maps show similar troughs around five days apart.

Screen Shot 2018-10-31 at 7.22.48 AM

In the last 30 days, it has been quite wet over Kansas, western Oklahoma, and Texas, which is very different from last year, as the wet areas now, are right over the strongest drought region from this past year.

El Niño:

Screen Shot 2018-10-31 at 7.22.11 AM

El Niño is the warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean, and it warmed dramatically in the past week.  How strong will this phenomenon become this winter? The models all suggest it will be a weak El Niño, and yet it just strengthened to 1.1°C above average in the Niño 3.4 region.  This will be a factor this winter as well.

Today’s Weather: 

day1otlk_1200

day1probotlk_1200_torn

There is a rather significant tornado risk today, centered over Louisiana. This system is about to produce significant severe weather as there is an enhanced slight risk from southeastern Texas to western Mississippi.  Let’s monitor this closely later today. There is also snow over New Mexico and Colorado.

Screen Shot 2018-10-31 at 7.41.51 AM

So, this storm system is producing all around KC today.  We are near the middle of the storm trough aloft.  So, just because this cycle didn’t produce a major storm here, it doesn’t mean this same part of the pattern will do the exact same thing next time.  In the next cycle there will be much colder air available and I am expecting a stronger storm system that would impact our area a bit more.

Happy Halloween. Trick or Treat!  We will have periods of clouds in KC, a very slight chance of a shower, and a mild day with highs in the 50s.  Have a safe day and thank you for sharing in this weather experience.

Gary

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