Hey bloggers,
I so much apologize for this blog going down today, of all days. It is likely a result of too much traffic. I will try to find out what the root of the problem was, but you bloggers have been just tremendous in the past week. We are truly making this a great place to share our weather experience. And, if you tried out the W2020 blog you can see how this storm fits into the pattern.
I will write up a new blog around 9 PM. I have to go to a surprise party right now.
The data continues to trend into a major winter storm that will be centered near KC. There are still a few uncertainties, but this is what makes weather so exciting. We are predicting the future, and over 50 days ago, 100 days ago, I knew a storm would hit us around Monday or Tuesday. Just check out next week’s forecast that I made when I was in Las Vegas New Year’s week.
I promise a new blog around 9 PM, 10 at the latest. Jeff Penner is doing a fantastic job tracking this on 41 Action News. Let’s watch him at 10. It’s a big challenge and I know Jeff will do great.
Gary
What are the chances shes gonna shift south like the last one did to lincoln and omaha area?
None, everyone’s predicting a north east turn to go up thru Missouri putting us in the comma head of the storm.
I don’t know anything about IT…but I do know that this hasn’t worked well for many hours now. Anyone know why it wouldn’t be fully fixed by now? Do their IT guys just suck, or is it just a big job to fix?
Will we actually get 12 inches at kci this time?
Nope still not working
18z NAM would give the metro 16-18″
18z GFS would give us 2-FEET!
NWS says their predicting lower than what the models are saying. They said that if the models continue showing the same thing that they’ll raise their predictions.
Kole, how do you know this?
Blog seems to be working better too.
I’m new to the models. Anyone know when this evening’s 00z runs will be announced, and anyone know of the best websites to look for them at?
How ironic. I come on here and it loads, then go to the next page it loads, but when I go to the title that says it’s working it had the error. Still, this is much better than earlier.
As for the snow, KC’s largest snowstorms mostly occur near the end of winter when we start getting more moisture again so the NAM and the GFS might not be totally crazy. 
2ft of snow sounds like the storms from the 60s my dad talks about where they had to open roads with dozers around my home town could be interesting.
I hope you’re right. If we ask for an inch over 2 feet we’ll break the all time record.
The all time record for the whole state is 37″ in Olathe in 1912 (also where KC’s highest snowfall came from).
I asked Gary if this could be as crippling a storm as it sounds with so much snow and drifting. He said definitely it could, but he’s looking to make sure it doesn’t become a cutoff low, “cutoff low, weatherman’s woe”.
NWS now has me getting 7-13″ up from 5-10″ that came with the afternoon update.
where are you?
Skylar, that’d be amazing if we broke the all-time record.
WELL WE WILL SEE AS IT APPEARS AS A SURFACE LOW SUNDAY AND WHERE IT IS IN RELATION TO FORECASTS.
IF THERE IS 18-21 NCHES OF HEAVY WET SNOW OR SLEET, FRZNG RAIN ON THE OLD SNOW
SERIOUS ””’ ROOF CAVE INS ARE LIKELY ””’
THE INTERNATIONAL BUILDING CODES WERE NOT MEANT TO HOLD THESE LOADS UNLESS YOU HAVE A 12/12 PITCHED ROOF.
crash crash crash…this might be a stupid question but why not have the blog handled by Blogspot or an external host of some kind?
On the other hand we don’t get storms like this all the time! But this blog is a Public Address system unto itself and needs funding from some source when things happen…
Premium memberships? I dunno…tip bucket?
the latest GFS is Crazy 24 to 30 inch booooom goes my roof!!!
How about putting up some first thought snowfall totals at 10!
NOPE BLOG NOT FIXED. SEE YA ALL TOMORROW MAYBE BY THEN THEY WILL GET THEIR S**T TOGETHER. THIS SHOULDN’T BE HAPPENING TO OF ALL PEOPLE A NEWS AGENCY
Gary said he’ll try to put blog up nine or ten at latest. You can go over and look a blog now, so I think it will be up.
…………..poof………..huh, whad ya say?………..POOOOOOOOOF BABY!
Bring it on!
Did…someone say…the “p” word???? Slowly I turn, step by step, inch by inch…
Haha!
Hey is this the same Scott that works at CED?
roof cave ins would suck as I’m on the second floor of a 1950′s apartment complex…let’s not go there. The snow is fine, my roof caves and I’m hating life.
You can see the trolls are getting restless from being wrong and being ignored.
LoL
It’s been nice not having them around. REAL nice.
Yea I agree. Blog is still having troubles.
New NAM at 8:30 and GFS at 9:30.
Thanks!! Where’s the best site to find them?
Here as long as the system cooperates. Give it 15 minutes or so after the release for each.
Thanks
You can also go to http://www.instantweathermaps.com I’ve been having some fun on there today… little by little the NAM is coming in, can’t wait till its completely in.
Is the the same Scott that works at CED?
You bet! Lol. This blog’s been great the last week when it’s working.
High tomorrow around 40 should provide ample melting to alleviate roof load problems. However if there is atill concern two solution are available. Open the atic and turn up the heat. Secondly you could purchase a roof rake.
Blizzard Watch issued for me in Hays.
http://www.hayskansasweather.com
I hope you guys get slammed by another big storm! Good luck!
It will be nice to have a prolonged snowstorm to sit back and enjoy..the last one, one was in danger of missing it for blinking it happened so fast.
http://wxcaster4.com/gfs/CONUS_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_10-1_90HR.gif
Yeah, I want a two day long storm.
Wow, blog is finally working well again.
The KC NWS office posted a potential snow totals map with lower totals than the Topeka office. I wonder why? (Topeka showed KC with more than the KC office did.)
They were lower for the last storm than Topeka too, I think EAX is just being more cautious, they didn’t up their predictions for the last storm until we were very close to it.
I had 4 panic attacks since the blog was down. The other 2×2 station had 13 blog comments. Gary we enjoy tormenting you especially during major storms so we need blog reliability.
Yeah, I was developing a nervous tick while it was down. The shakes weren’t so bad, but the non stop bawling wasn’t pretty.
GFS is going crazy with the snow out west
Please, I’m hoping.
*NAM, sorry.
It again gives us 12-20″+
“http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013022400&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=063″
Cool!
A little early wi the 63 hour. Try 24 inches…st joe looks to be over 2 feet
I was just trying to get the info out sooner
what are you hoping?
NAM has us still painted with a bullseye.
“http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013022400&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=066″
That the trend continues.
Nearly 3 feet by St Joseph
“http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013022400&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=078″
Hopefully Gary will put up a new blog soon.
When does new gfs come out
30 minutes
Gary, ready for your new blog…bring it on!!!!
If only having to reload the page a couple of times to get away from the “Error Establishing A Database Connection” qualifies as fixed, then count me in… It was pretty much impossible for awhile, now not nearly so bad although I wonder what will happen when everybody piles on.
Amazing how only a week or two changes the outlook of a winter. This is looking to be quite the combination.
“http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_ETA212_SFC_ACCUMSNOWFALL-KUCHERA_66HR.gif”
latest 0z NAM!
The blog is not fixed. Gary I would wait until tomorrow for a new blog. Hopefully by then they can reset all servers or move to a new server overnight.
I cant load links on phone. How much in northland
18-20″+!
He can still put the blog up….if yu can get there to read this you can get to a new blog. There’s no reason for him not to post up a new blog.
Blog server is definitely frustrating to access. We had similar issues two and three years back just before the blizzards. I believe Gary had mentioned then that the station was considering a better server or outside server farm. Not sure if that ever spanned out. Looking forward to the storm but not so much the aftermath. I guess I’m somewhat in denial that we could get such significant snowfall if the models are remotely accurate on this storm. I guess we’ll see!
Any idea when the NWS will be upgrading this to a WSW or Blizzard watch/Warning?
Tomorrow maybe. As of 9 tonight they are still only saying 6-10, so not sure what it’s going to take to convince them it’s going to be much more.
2 more panic attacks , database error!!!
Thanks champs
Yeah, blog still having serious issues no doubt. But, I want to hear Gary’s latest thoughts on storm.
6 is still warning criteria. Doesnt look to be enough wind for blizzard
Accuweather said gusts to 50 mph and we will be in blizzard. We’ll see if they were right or wrong on that account I guess…time will tell.
EAX only issued its first blizzard warning in 2009, so they’re pretty rare. If they’re going to issue a blizzard warning is will be at the last minute.
Wow another monster headed our way. Time to stock up on snacks for another round of snow induced house arrest. Joy…
I am set. Case of beer – check. Margarita fixins – check. Chips and dip – check. Ready for anything! Snow blower is tuned, oil changed, settings adjusted…just add snow!
Holding my breath for the GFS run.
These are insane snowfall forecasts by the SREF models!
Wichita
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index2.php?YMD=20130223&RT=21&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=ICT&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=6&mLAT=38.43181104931222&mLON=-93.933521875&mTYP=roadmap
Dodge City
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index2.php?YMD=20130223&RT=21&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=DDC&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=6&mLAT=38.43181104931222&mLON=-93.933521875&mTYP=roadmap
This my friends would be a historic crippling blizzard! Everyone pay extremely close attention!
Oh, we have been.
Dude, I think you might be close to the record for single posts by an individual over the past couple of day.
Therefore I, the Queen of Blog Civility and Manners (as I was rudely christened by a troll last week), hereby award you the title of Master of Blog Hospitality. Nice job!
GFS has dropped WAY down now. Only 8-10 inches now 72 hours out.
shouldnt gfs be out by now?
Yes here’s the GFS
“http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013022400&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=069″
It drops the low down to 992mb, then the precip starts falling apart afterward. On the last storm it started to get too dry for a few runs, so that might what this is. There’s no poof here.
I had a feeling that would happen!
KC still in bulls eye area
GFS under does precip and NAM over does it. Split the difference.
What do you mean this would be? Do you mean this will be?
This storm like the blog appears to be a disaster!
Gary is posting the new blog entry on the LRC site
what is url to lrc website
The latest. More coming shortly
http://www.weather2020.com/blog/
how do you get a picture on your account?
Gary,
Where’s that new blog at?
Blog is a little better now. We need an update!
http://www.weather2020.com/another-storm-targets-middle-america/#comment-164 here you go.
The new blog is at “www.weather2020.com/blog” guys.
Extremely frustrated today. Not only has the blog been down all day…no met on this site will offer anything other than a cliffhanger paragraph. NO FORECAST and we are less than 48 hours away!!!! We could get nothing, we could get 2 feet. COME ON…..ISSUE A FORECAST!!!!!
Settle down dude, tomorrow you shall get a great forecast.
I’ve been checking the latest GFS and the bad news is that the GFS is only giving us 2-4 inches of snow. i think its mainly because the precipitation and the low pressure of the storm aren’t matching up correctly which is causing the lack of accumulation. But dont be disappointed because the NAM gave us 24-32 inches! I think this is because if the low pressure makes a northwest turn, then the precipitation will let up and everything will start accumulating again! My guess is that we will get around 1-3 inches! Totesmagoats123 over and out!
So the NAM comes out at 2:00 a.m. Not sure I’ll make it that long.
New NAM and GFS show over 20 inches for KC
People need to understand that this blog isnt gary’s first priority. Just be patient and let him enjoy his time off before this next storm.
wow the times of entries on this blog are all out of order. still every other time i cant get in
Latest models? Anyone?
NAM still downloading only thru the 36 hr mark all looks the same
How come some links posted in comments are clickable and some aren’t? Is it possible to make all links clickable in comments? It makes life a lot easier for those using phones and tablets to read the blogs.
Given the fact that 12-13″ of snow is the most any one 24hr span has seen,I’d say this storm should play out just as the last one did.
The x-factor is the potential for this to slow as it move along I-44,thus going on longer the 24hrs. If it does as some suggest,totals could be historic.
Both the NAM and GFS have become much better over the last few years and busted forecast are rare. So the fact they have move very little from run to run is notable.
The NAM has the track a little farther south and less prec. for the north side of town. Still a 10:1 rate will give the south side 14-20″ of snow,If we get all snow.
“http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013022406&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=057″
latest NAM has 12-16″ for the metro
the NAM has 1.50-1.75″ of precip for much of the metro and most would likely be SNOW
“http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer¶m=precip_p36&cycle=06&image=nam%2F06%2Fnam_namer_060_precip_p36.gif”
So what would us up in Liberty be looking at if this model is right?
you look to be in the 12-14″ range, JUST north of the 16-18″, things could change though so keep updated
“http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_MESO-ETA212_SFC_ACCUMSNOWFALL-KUCHERA_60HR.gif”
latest NAM has 16-18″ of SNOW right through the metro with 12-14″ around that!
The blog is behaving very strangely right now, the bottom three posts are stuck there and new posts are appearing before them. Odd.
Anyway, I hope this doesn’t trend Southward far, otherwise we could slip out of the bullseye just like we slipped into it with the last storm.
Hey kcchamps, how do u get the maps off of wxcaster4.com? I click on model forecast charts but have no clue what to do next…
“http://wxcaster.com/regional_snowfall.htm”
here ya go
latest GFS has 12-16″ for the metro
Thank you! Also did u see at 48 hours out nam shows kc getting nothing…seems like the system is slowing down and the time frame for the storm is going to be later?