Good Sunday morning bloggers,
Our forecast high of 43° today will make it the warmest day since February 18th. This will begin the snow melt in a serious way. We need to melt the snow, so that the moisture can get into the soil. Right now it is just sitting there. Highs will approach 60° in western Kansas, but these temperatures will not reach here this time as our next storm system drops in from the northern Rockies, pushing the warm air south instead of east, see map #1.
MAP #1: TODAY AT 3 PM
As this next storm system drops in from the northwest, we wil see lots of clouds and perhaps a band of rain showers Monday evening. That will be interesting to watch as it falls on the snow pack. The new data has trended towards the system tracking farther north and east, so this puts the chance for accumulating snow in our area Tuesday in jeopardy. We will get a cold blast and flurries with the chance of seeing a period of light snow. Minneapolis, Milwaukee, Chicago and Des Moines will have the best chance of seeing 4-8″ of snow! See maps 2-4 below.
MAP #2: MONDAY AT 6 PM
MONDAY EVENING RAIN SHOWERS
MAP #3: TUESDAY WILL BE WINDY & COLD.
TUESDAY COLD BLAST
MAP #4: HEAVY SNOW ACROSS IOWA, MINNESOTA, WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS
If you look at the far left in the map above you will see a ridge. This will move in by the end of the week, bringing our area more consistent mild weather.
So, the next several days, watch for black ice in the morning and keep a lot of windshield washer fluid handy for the afternoon.
Have a great rest of your weekend!
Jeff Penner
Jeff,
If the forecasted NAO doesnt go neutral and stays negative and the AO stays negative with REX high trying to move east, would that not blow a warmup and put us in a fast NW flow of quick weather events?
Could also get very wet next weekend. NWS concerned about flooding in the plains next weekend with all the snow pack should that closed low track our way.
With the recent wetter FEB. we actually finished above average on total precip. for Dec. Jan. and Feb. Some well above average in the 4-county area.
The drouhgt has gone from exceptional in August last summer to just severe currently,(d-4 to a d-2) I see this improving trend continuing through the Spring. Much of MO. has improved big time and some so much that drought headlines have been removed.
We finally got into a good weather pattern, hopefully this will continue.
Got aways to go on snow melt, I measured late yesterday and still have a 16″ base on my north facings and a 10″ base on the south facings. However, early March sun angle works a lot faster on a snow pack then a Jan. sun angle.
BTW…the Royals will have a very good chance of winning the division this year.
Mike, you had me sold until the Royals comment.
Wonder how long these 10ft piles of snow at work will take to melt.
H.
When are we going to get the spring forecast? We normally would have gotten it last week.
I was one of the people who was having issues getting the blog to load correctly (it would always load the Feb. 25th). One person suggested deleting my browser history. This worked, so thank you whoever it was that suggested it.
I forget who that was, but they mentioned it on the weather2020 blog, at least that is where I read it. I had to do that too! Thanks again to whomever it was!
Bring on the storms! More moisture sounds good to me, I don’t care if it is snow or rain just as long as we get some!
Well, that sucks!
I can see, smell and feel the meltdown process, I feel like I am melting with the snow! Oh Winter!! Please make a good fight and come back!!! #Ilovewinter #ilovesnow #ihatespring
Is anyone going to post a link to any of the latest model runs ? It would be interesting to see how much snow they’re forecasting to fall up towards Des Moines and Chicago.
“http://grib2.com/gfs/CONUS_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_144HR.gif”
there ya go smart a$$
It was a simple weather related question Mike. Why so touchy? And was the name calling really necessary ? I believe that’s against the rules. Thanks for the link, I guess, GEESH !
Come on EMAW, you were not concerned about snow NE of here. You where calling out the folks on here that discuss potential weather events with maps. This is your mojo, most comments from you are loaded with extreme sarcasm.
Nothing wrong with it, I just don’t understand the fun in it. Sorry for the smart a$$ comment, but that’s exactly what you were trying to do.
Poor Emaw is so misunderstood. LoL!
Mike, guilty as charged, but when I do post things like that are anti-snow or sarcastic it’s all in fun I never make it personal with anybody, but for some reason people take it personally, why, I don’t know, it’s just weather. I started reading this blog years ago when Gary first started it because I like weather and it was interesting and entertaining to see other’s thoughts as well. With that said I will continue to post as I always have (I’m sure you’re thrilled) just try not take it so seriously man, you love snow and I don’t, big deal! This is a great time of year, spring approaching , March madness, Royals baseball, it’s all good .Thanks for the apology, no sarcasm intended with this post.
Even though the snow will melt, this ^^^ makes me very happy.
And go Royals!
EMAW,
Yes!! Great time of year! If everyone remembers correctly, you all were mowing your lawns the first week of March.(very warm March last year) This year, you can’t even see the grass.(not yet)I do believe that this wild pattern will continue through March and winter isn’t quite done yet.
Has anyone looked at the longer range of the GFS and to some extent the ECMWF, many strong cold fronts after the 12th of March or so. We’ll see how all that pans out, but we could be in for some late winter weather this year.Late growing season looks likely.
Everyone should check their sump pumps, they haven’t worked too much in the last year. Many failed during the heavy rains of Isaac. Should we see some heavy rains next weekend some unfortunately will likely find out if they had any foundation cracks due to the drought. Sump pumps need to be tested every so often to prime them, if this is lost due to not being used, it won’t kick on when it is needed. 6 people on my block figured that out when their basements flooded following the heavy rains of Issac.
“…winter isn’t quite done yet.” I’m counting on your statement, so it better happen!!!!!!!!!!
I am on the side of the snow haters. I am 57 and have never had a positive experience with snow, but have had a lot of negatives.
Everyone is entitled to an opinion, of course, but I would rather have 40 days and 40 nights of rain than another snowfall this year.
Severe thunderstorm warning in Montana with snow on the backside of the thunderstorm! Now that’s awesome!
That’s cool for sure!
Of course this system is now forecasted to go NE of Missouri. Its not allowed to snow anywhere I live…….when I moved from Blue Springs, you guys had 2 massive snow years and I have had nothing but crap since moving to St Louis area.
We all know Mike is the weather pet of Gary and the blog. He is Gary’s 3rd pet. I keep waiting to see Mike on a Friday doing tricks at the desk and Gary giving him a treat.
Spring is almost here! Royals fans are full of hope and yet we know by the All Start break their hopes will be broken. Their hopes will turn to can we at least not end up in last place.
Let’s hope for some rain to help melt soem of this snow. Looks like Buffalo around here.
Ahh! No not everybody will be dancing, Gary!!!!!!