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The Average High Is 50

Good morning bloggers,

Kansas City Weather Time-line:

  • Today:  Mostly sunny and much warmer.  High: 37°
  • Tonight: Clear & not as cold with increasing clouds late. Low:  23°
  • Wednesday:  Mostly cloudy with a chance of a mixture of precipitation LATE in the day.  High:  38°
  • Thursday:  Mostly sunny with much warmer temperatures. High:  49°

Wednesday’s storm system is another tricky one. Why? Because it is yet another storm system that is just beginning to form as it passes us by Wednesday evening. This will make it another difficult forecast and we will discuss below.

Weather discussion:

It has been over 100 days since it was 70 degrees, back on November 16th.  And, we are moving into that part of the weather pattern that produced the last 70 degree day, as November 16th is exactly 114 days before next Monday. And, if you have been following the LRC this year, then you would know that we are cycling through around a 57 day cycle, give or take a few days. 114 days is 57 times 2!  This lines up with March 10th, and that just happens to be when we have one big warm-up in the forecast. Jack Harry, our sports director, said no way that we will be 65 next Monday, what we have on the 7 day forecast right now.  And, I reminded him that three weeks ago I told him it would be at least 60° Big 12 Tournament week. He wrote it down, but of course he forgot that he did that.  No biggie there!  Unfortunately we are in a very cold weather pattern, and this fact is not changing. One of the main aspects of the LRC is our assessment that the weather pattern is cycling and regularly.  The part of the weather pattern that produced the big severe weather outbreak in November is returning next week. There may or may not be severe weather this time around, we will have to see how it all sets up, but one thing for certain, that one warm day is in the forecast for Monday, and it is not a coincidence that it just happens to be 114 days after our last 70 degree day. It may hit 70 Monday. And, just in case you are wondering what happened in November, well it was cold just before that 70° day, and it was cold just after that 70° day. The weather pattern, according to the LRC, had set up by that date, but we were still learning what it meant for the winter.  And, I just checked 57 days before March 10th, which is January 12. On that day, 57 days before, it was 61 degrees!

The LRC sets up between around October 1st and November 10th. Once this weather pattern set up, let’s say since November 1st, we have had 77 days below average and 47 days above the average temperature.

Days below average:

  • 4 out of 4 in March, including today
  • 21 out of 28 in February
  • 19 out of 31 in January
  • 17 out of 31 in December
  • 16 out of 30 in November

What will happen between now and much warmer Monday?  The average high is 50° and we may have one day this week, possibly Friday, where we jump above average.  The roller-coaster ride will become more extreme as we move through March, as often happens in this third month of the year.  Overall, however, the colder days will still win out as winter keeps winning battles with spring right into April.

Okay, now, let’s look at the new data coming out this morning. The storm approaching us Wednesday is just forming into a storm as it passes by, which makes this another complex weather forecast for Kansas City.  Let’s begin by looking at the upper levels of the atmosphere by 6 AM Wednesday:

2This first map shows the 500 mb flow forecast valid at 6 AM tomorrow. The storm system, well it isn’t a storm yet.  There are three or four waves just disorganized and moving out into the plains states as the flow comes over the Rocky Mountains.  Take a look at that one wave in eastern Colorado. That will become the main wave as the storm tries to become better organized by the end of the day.  And, because it isn’t organized, there may be enough sunshine filtering through that we may have to up the high temperature tomorrow into the upper 30s to near 40 from where we are right now. I am not sure on that part of the weather forecast yet.

3By the end of the day, as you can see on the right, the upper level disturbance is forecast to become much more organized within 12 hours.  The vorticity maximum, what we meteorologists call a “vort max”, is forecast to intensify just west of Wichita, KS.  This will place Kansas City in a thin area of rising motion and it may be just strong enough to produce a small area of snow in a line as you can see on this next map below:

1

Can you see how difficult forecasting such a small area of snow can be? This is our challenge for Wednesday into Wednesday evening. How will this evolve?  This may be a band of snow, just 50 miles wide, that slowly moves east and southeast as the storm gets a bit stronger as it is passing by to our south.  But, it could also be just a band of “almost snow” in the form of thick clouds, if that makes sense. What makes this suspect to begin with is the fact that it isn’t really a storm until it gets well to our south tomorrow night near the Gulf coast.

Have a terrific Tuesday! Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog!

Gary

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43 comments to The Average High Is 50

  • calikufan

    So long as the arctic air is gone for good,I’m happy. I can tolerate days in the 30s but I’m over the teens and colder.

  • luvsno

    Good morning Gary !
    I have a question ….yesterday somebody commented that you said March would be active, and wondered how that would correlate with January, which was a dry month. Question is did you say that March would e active ? And if so, I agree that January was very dry and not really active. So how can March be active when January was not ?
    I do believe in the LRC..

  • Farmgirl

    Gary, is Monday’s warm up going to be accompanied by strong winds? I’d like to take the day off and go riding, but if it going to be howling like it usually does when we get a brief warm-up I’ll save the day for May or June. ;)

  • Terri

    What does the LRC have for us on or about the start of May? Will we be seeing May blizzards again this year, or just storms?

  • frigate

    Did I miss February’s stats? Not suprised with the 21 out of 28 days were below normal…but would like to know how much below normal and the rank. I would think in the top 10 coldest February’s in KC and it will be interesting to see the final winter stats as well.

  • I would love to know what you mean by colder days in March. I, like many others, am completely over the sub-zero/single digits lows. Please tell me that part’s over with!!!!

  • luvsno

    Here is a couple of interesting stats for March/April….from luvsno archives (i have kept “diaries”….calendars….for unusual weather events for years. No I am not a hoarder…my calendars are neatly arranged in chronological order in a bureau drawer..small calendars)

    1994
    March
    8th…..Lake of the Ozarks & SW Mo….Snow….18-24 inches

    April
    4th….Kansas City ….73 degrees
    5th…32 degrees with 12 degree windchill …sleet & thundersnow !
    14th….82 degrees

    This is why this is the BEST part of the country for unique weather :)

  • yourmom

    I can take the cold, just without the cold precip. Too much trouble to deal with that and too dangerous.

  • f00dl3

    So in other words I’m still going cycling tomorrow. Even if it does snow, it’s gonna be just light flurries that will not really cause an bad ice situation due to the fact the ground is already frozen – no melting/refrezing.

  • f00dl3

    a* not an

  • stjoeattorney

    Ok, just read NWS discussion they did not learn. They are throwing out the NAM the MAN this year. While a small snow event, all models point to 0.05 or less liquid, but the NAM has just over three times more so slightly over 0.15+ inches.

    Simple someone in the area will pick up an unforecasted 2-2.5 inches of snow on Wendesday. Never ceases to amaze me that NWS and others just do not learn. This is also common after an off forecast a non event turns into light snow that needs scouped.

    It will get forecasted as it falls or has fallen and is fully developed on radar.

  • Drought Miser

    Okay Gary just mentioned 70 degrees next week on air… I mentioned this yesterday Ummm what modeling run was this ? Is this all Lrc driven ?? Accu+Wx app had it on there yesterday…if they are coattailing the Lrc man oh man I would be upset if it was my theory or hypothesis or whatever I’m supposed to call it.

  • stjoeattorney

    I stand by what I said now NWS in discussion has 1-2 inches… Must have read My post

  • Emaw

    Gary,
    That 7 day is strong, 5 out of the 7 at or above average! Correct me if im wrong but I dont think we’re in for ridiculous amounts of wind either. Just for the record I have .25″ of melted precip. In my gage from the weekend here in north Olathe.

  • Drought Miser

    I like how Gary and Jack mess with each other on air those two are hilarious and just set for a clash, Jack is so set in his ways and Gary always ready with his facts for a rebuttal from Jack it’s funny stuff Itell you!!

  • yourmom

    It was warmer today, Gary said it would be like this. Is that ok to say? I saw dan Henry at a hardware store one time. I still regret I didn’t tell him how much I liked him.

  • batman

    I have a question. Gary you said that Monday maybe 70 degrees and that it’s going to be 70 degrees because it fits the LRC from 114 days ago. If this is the case thenwhat was the temp 57 days ago? Should that not have been 70 degree’s as well? If it wasn’t then why would you know that this Monday would be 70 when just 57 days ago it wasn’t? I hope I didn’t confuse anyone.

    • Drought Miser

      Ummm I’ll answer that since I’m catching on to the Lrc… Gary added 57 and 57 which equals 114 days if you count back 114 days from next Monday…. drumroll please it was our last 70 degrees day of the fall crazy stuff folks but hey I’m sold on the Theory !!!

      • batman

        Drought miser I understand 114 days ago was 70. I’m asking what what the tempature 57 days ago. 57 days ago was the tempature also 70 degrees? I don’t believe you understood my question.

        • luvsno

          batman……
          57 days ago was Jan 6.
          From the KSHB Blog 1-6-14 (Kalee Dionne)

          “We dropped down to -10° this morning w/ wind chill values from 20° to 35° and that pictures explains how I feel about this. We will continue to see temperatures stay below zero through the afternoon and wind chill values around -20°, so if you can stay inside do it! I know many of you are like me and have to get out and go to work and I’ll leave you with some good news. Starting tomorrow afternoon, we will warm up to near 30° in the afternoon. Just get through today and it will be much better the rest of the week and the weekend we will see temperatures up near 50°. YIPPIE!!!”

  • batman

    Luvsno thanks for the information. Maybe you can tell me how it’s know that Monday would be 70 just because 114 days ago it was and yet 57 day’s ago it was colder then a well diggers rear end and way below normal.

    • Joe

      Batman,

      It fits the cycles. I believe we are in the 3rd (?) cycle of the LRC thus, Gary predicting the warm front. It is a bit stronger this time around with the absence of the acrctic air and in addition to the longer days/higher sun angles. If I understand or am beginning to understand the LRC, each cycle, when back around, produces similar results with subtle differences based on the time of the year.

      Gary, sorry if I butchered the explanation however, thats my very basic understanding

  • batman

    Where can one get past data from like temps and maps and such? Is there a NWS site that you can get that information from?

    • Drought Miser

      Look for Seds In KC when he posts he always has a lot of facts so he might be able to tell you what Web pages are good for climatology for any given area mostly KC, good luck

    • BigSteve

      If you go to TWC site for KCMO and click on ‘monthly’ instead of the 5-day or 10-day forecast, they give you the observed high, low, and precip amount for every day.

    • luvsno

      batman….
      Here is a neat link for subtracting/adding days

      “http://www.timeanddate.com/date/dateadd.html”

      Then come back here to the blog and in the right hand column look for the blog calendar….just go to the month/day that was calculated in above link.

  • GarySaid71Degrees

    Might it come true? The actual 71 degree day promised long, long ago?

    71.

    That’s the number of comments by Heat Mizer every post, come to think of it.