Good morning bloggers,
Kansas City Weather Time-line:
- Today: Mostly sunny and much warmer. High: 37°
- Tonight: Clear & not as cold with increasing clouds late. Low: 23°
- Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of a mixture of precipitation LATE in the day. High: 38°
- Thursday: Mostly sunny with much warmer temperatures. High: 49°
Wednesday’s storm system is another tricky one. Why? Because it is yet another storm system that is just beginning to form as it passes us by Wednesday evening. This will make it another difficult forecast and we will discuss below.
It has been over 100 days since it was 70 degrees, back on November 16th. And, we are moving into that part of the weather pattern that produced the last 70 degree day, as November 16th is exactly 114 days before next Monday. And, if you have been following the LRC this year, then you would know that we are cycling through around a 57 day cycle, give or take a few days. 114 days is 57 times 2! This lines up with March 10th, and that just happens to be when we have one big warm-up in the forecast. Jack Harry, our sports director, said no way that we will be 65 next Monday, what we have on the 7 day forecast right now. And, I reminded him that three weeks ago I told him it would be at least 60° Big 12 Tournament week. He wrote it down, but of course he forgot that he did that. No biggie there! Unfortunately we are in a very cold weather pattern, and this fact is not changing. One of the main aspects of the LRC is our assessment that the weather pattern is cycling and regularly. The part of the weather pattern that produced the big severe weather outbreak in November is returning next week. There may or may not be severe weather this time around, we will have to see how it all sets up, but one thing for certain, that one warm day is in the forecast for Monday, and it is not a coincidence that it just happens to be 114 days after our last 70 degree day. It may hit 70 Monday. And, just in case you are wondering what happened in November, well it was cold just before that 70° day, and it was cold just after that 70° day. The weather pattern, according to the LRC, had set up by that date, but we were still learning what it meant for the winter. And, I just checked 57 days before March 10th, which is January 12. On that day, 57 days before, it was 61 degrees!
The LRC sets up between around October 1st and November 10th. Once this weather pattern set up, let’s say since November 1st, we have had 77 days below average and 47 days above the average temperature.
Days below average:
- 4 out of 4 in March, including today
- 21 out of 28 in February
- 19 out of 31 in January
- 17 out of 31 in December
- 16 out of 30 in November
What will happen between now and much warmer Monday? The average high is 50° and we may have one day this week, possibly Friday, where we jump above average. The roller-coaster ride will become more extreme as we move through March, as often happens in this third month of the year. Overall, however, the colder days will still win out as winter keeps winning battles with spring right into April.
Okay, now, let’s look at the new data coming out this morning. The storm approaching us Wednesday is just forming into a storm as it passes by, which makes this another complex weather forecast for Kansas City. Let’s begin by looking at the upper levels of the atmosphere by 6 AM Wednesday:
This first map shows the 500 mb flow forecast valid at 6 AM tomorrow. The storm system, well it isn’t a storm yet. There are three or four waves just disorganized and moving out into the plains states as the flow comes over the Rocky Mountains. Take a look at that one wave in eastern Colorado. That will become the main wave as the storm tries to become better organized by the end of the day. And, because it isn’t organized, there may be enough sunshine filtering through that we may have to up the high temperature tomorrow into the upper 30s to near 40 from where we are right now. I am not sure on that part of the weather forecast yet.
By the end of the day, as you can see on the right, the upper level disturbance is forecast to become much more organized within 12 hours. The vorticity maximum, what we meteorologists call a “vort max”, is forecast to intensify just west of Wichita, KS. This will place Kansas City in a thin area of rising motion and it may be just strong enough to produce a small area of snow in a line as you can see on this next map below:
Can you see how difficult forecasting such a small area of snow can be? This is our challenge for Wednesday into Wednesday evening. How will this evolve? This may be a band of snow, just 50 miles wide, that slowly moves east and southeast as the storm gets a bit stronger as it is passing by to our south. But, it could also be just a band of “almost snow” in the form of thick clouds, if that makes sense. What makes this suspect to begin with is the fact that it isn’t really a storm until it gets well to our south tomorrow night near the Gulf coast.
Have a terrific Tuesday! Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog!