Good morning bloggers,
Can you tell I had a very long day yesterday? Wow, I posted last years forecasts and not this year’s from you. I can’t believe I did that, but now we can compare your thoughts of this weather pattern to what you predicted last year. A few of your forecasts are posted below, and I am not half asleep this time LOL. But, first let’s take a peak into next week:
I plotted the 06z GFS 500 mb forecast map from the overnight model run. This map above shows the500 mb forecast valid noon on Thanksgiving Day. A lot can still happen between now and later next week, but confidence is growing that it will be a dry and rather mild/warm Thanksgiving Day. And, the entire week looks rather calm over much of the nation. Let’s see if this trend continues on today’s runs. The squiggly blue line is drawn through the upper level ridge that is forecast to be right over Kansas next week. Storm systems are off the west coast and off the New England coast. If this pattern verifies next week we could easily have another Thanksgiving Day near 70 degrees. There is not a storm in sight for us. Will this trend continue into winter? More on this in the coming days.
41 Action News Bloggers Winter Forecast Thoughts on winter 2012-2013
Our winter forecast will be coming out on Monday, November 19th. We are in the midst of a very bad drought that continues deep into fall with no end in sight right now. I asked our most faithful weather enthusiasts, the 41 Action Weather Bloggers to have some fun and make their own winter predictions.
Blogger Davidmcg came in with this comment, “Winter? We’ll definitely have one, we always do. I think the temperature fluctuations will be extreme. The real weather factor this year, at least northwest of KC, north of Topeka for us out here will be the wind, again. In the city you don’t notice the wind the way we do here in the farm land. The summer drought of 2012 will be remembered, now the winter drought of 2012/2013 will be remembered.” Wow, David, those are some pretty strong statements. The drought continues to worsen and your forecast just may come true.
We received a lot of other forecasts from the bloggers like this one, “Snowfall-6-10 inches for the metro, below average precipitation, and below average temperatures”. And, this one from Frigate, “I don’t think it takes a rocket scientist to know precipitation will be below average this season…the question is how far below average? I think we will have more snow events (no snow storms) than last year with most being in the 1/2″ to 1 1/2″ range, so I am not expecting more than 12 inches of snow”. KCDebi came in with this short forecast, “Cold, dry, and boring”. Mukustink had thoughts, “I believe we will have under 10 inches of snow this year. Drought continues with below average precipitation, I do believe another boring winter is here”. And, Mowermike comes in with this bold forecast, “21.6 inches of snow, above average precipitation, near average temperatures, two icing events (1 moderate), highest temperature 68 and the lowest temperature -9.
We had many other bloggers participate. Sedsinkc forecasts “8-12 inches mostly from clipper systems with a wild card of getting a few lows over the entire winter that dig into the southwestern US. If these lows take favorable tracks, these could cause more snow or ice here. If the lows track to our south, we get mostly missed.” And, StormyWX says, “I’ll go with 10-12 inches. It will be sort of boring again”. Theo came in with a forecast of 17.5″ of snow.
It sounds like the bloggers are expecting a very boring winter with another year struggling to have any snow. We are putting the final touches on our winter forecast and we will present it on Monday night at 6 PM on 41 Action News.
Okay, there you go. I still can’t believe I posted last year’s forecasts yesterday. Does that tell you how boring this weather pattern is? Or, how much the Chiefs wore me out the night before. Anyway, it is looking nice Thanksgiving week and I will go over the details on 41 Action News tonight.
Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather blog! Let us know if you have any questions or comments.