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The 2012-2013 Blogger Forecasts & A Look Into The Holiday Week

Good morning bloggers,

Can you tell I had a very long day yesterday?  Wow, I posted last years forecasts and not this year’s from you.  I can’t believe I did that, but now we can compare your thoughts of this weather pattern to what you predicted last year.   A few of your forecasts are posted below, and I am not half asleep this time LOL.  But, first let’s take a peak into next week:

I plotted the 06z GFS 500 mb forecast map from the overnight model run. This map above shows the500 mb forecast valid noon on Thanksgiving Day. A lot can still happen between now and later next week, but confidence is growing that it will be a dry and rather mild/warm Thanksgiving Day. And, the entire week looks rather calm over much of the nation. Let’s see if this trend continues on today’s runs.  The squiggly blue line is drawn through the upper level ridge that is forecast to be right over Kansas next week.  Storm systems are off the west coast and off the New England coast.  If this pattern verifies next week we could easily have another Thanksgiving Day near 70 degrees.  There is not a storm in sight for us. Will this trend continue into winter?  More on this in the coming days.

41 Action News Bloggers Winter Forecast Thoughts on  winter 2012-2013

Our winter forecast will be coming out on Monday, November 19th.  We are in the midst of a very bad drought that continues deep into fall with no end in sight right now.  I asked our most faithful weather enthusiasts, the 41 Action Weather Bloggers to have some fun and make their own winter predictions.

Blogger Davidmcg came in with this comment, “Winter?  We’ll definitely have one, we always do.  I think the temperature fluctuations will be extreme.  The real weather factor this year, at least northwest of KC, north of Topeka for us out here will be the wind, again. In the city you don’t notice the wind the way we do here in the farm land.  The summer drought of 2012 will be remembered, now the winter drought of 2012/2013 will be remembered.”  Wow, David, those are some pretty strong statements.  The drought continues to worsen and your forecast just may come true.

We received a lot of other forecasts from the bloggers like this one, “Snowfall-6-10 inches for the metro, below average precipitation, and below average temperatures”.  And, this one from Frigate, “I don’t think it takes a rocket scientist to know precipitation will be below average this season…the question is how far below average?  I think we will have more snow events (no snow storms) than last year with most being in the 1/2″ to 1 1/2″ range, so I am not expecting more than 12 inches of snow”.  KCDebi came in with this short forecast, “Cold, dry, and boring”.  Mukustink had thoughts, “I believe we will have under 10 inches of snow this year.  Drought continues with below average precipitation, I do believe another boring winter is here”.  And, Mowermike comes in with this bold forecast, “21.6 inches of snow, above average precipitation, near average temperatures, two icing events (1 moderate), highest temperature 68 and the lowest temperature -9.

We had many other bloggers participate.  Sedsinkc forecasts “8-12 inches mostly from clipper systems with a wild card of getting a few lows over the entire winter that dig into the southwestern US.  If these lows take favorable tracks, these could cause more snow or ice here.  If the lows track to our south, we get mostly missed.”  And, StormyWX says, “I’ll go with 10-12 inches.  It will be sort of boring again”.  Theo came in with a forecast of 17.5″ of snow.

It sounds like the bloggers are expecting a very boring winter with another year struggling to have any snow.  We are putting the final touches on our winter forecast and we will present it on Monday night at 6 PM on 41 Action News.

Okay, there you go.  I still can’t believe I posted last year’s forecasts yesterday. Does that tell you how boring this weather pattern is? Or, how much the Chiefs wore me out the night before.  Anyway, it is looking nice Thanksgiving week and I will go over the details on 41 Action News tonight.

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather blog!  Let us know if you have any questions or comments.

Gary

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18 comments to The 2012-2013 Blogger Forecasts & A Look Into The Holiday Week

  • McCabe58

    It only took you almost 17 hours to fix this Gary……….. I guess you are human, but I guarantee you saw the mistake well before you fixed it. Pretty lame post if you ask me, but the weather is pretty lame right now as well so might as well talk about anything! Are there ANY storms in sight for the next 10 days? Is this pattern really different? Do you see any end in sight? Those are a couple questions I’d like to know.. Thanks for the effort though, Gary.

    • McCabe,

      I will answer your questions within the.blog soon. And 17 hours is a long time. Sorry about yesterday. I was in meetings and didn’t check the blog until I came home last night.

  • Hockeynut69

    So has the first pattern been set according to the LRC or is it still developing? And if so, do we know what the length of the cycle is?

    Oh and don’t sweat it on not responding to the blog. This is extra curricular to your main responsibility so that should be the focus and not responding to the blog. I would say you do a great job at responding and life happens, especially when it comes to work.

    Thanks!

    • John,

      Thanks, and yesterday was just one of those long days that started early and it was non stop from there. The first cycle continues. We have seen cycle lengths as small as 34 to 38 days and as long as around 74 to 78 days. We are still identifying the cycle and what this pattern is capable of doing this winter.

  • hobart

    Shouldn’t the new LRC be established by now? If so, how does it differ from last year’s LRC?
    All I’m seeing is the same old dry pattern. What am I missing here?

    • It may seem like the same old dry pattern, but this is a very different pattern. Last year we had multiple wet storms in November. This year we have had one with none in sight. That fact alone should show you how different this pattern is already. Unfortunately we need some more moisture now to cut into the drought and it isn’t showing up.

      • hobart

        So, does that mean we’re looking at an even drier pattern than last year? What do you foresee for precip through the next 12 months? We seem to be heading for another dust bowl.

  • Kansa

    Thanksgiving Day near the 70’s? I will be very thankful if that’s the case!

  • selvco

    “I’ll give you a winter prediction:
    It’s gonna be cold…
    It’s gonna be gray…
    and it’s gonna last you for the rest of your life.”

    Ah, I love that movie… my prediction: over 18 inches of snow mainly from 3-5 large systems, about avg. temps overall but because of a mix of warm and cold stretches (bipolar weather). Plus a severe thunderstorm event.

  • yewtrees

    Gary. Looking back to a blog written almost a year ago, I found a similar pattern happening on Thanksgiving day. This was what you wrote on Nov. 18, 2011 “broad ridge will bring us a big Thanksgiving day warm-up”. Look at that ridge which is strikingly similar. Is it coincident or a repeat cycle?

    “http://weatherblog.kshb.com/two-warming-trends-looking-ahead-through-the-holiday-week/”

  • Weatherfreak01

    Well I have given it some thought and I here are my thoughts of this Winters weather.

    Extreme swings in temps, with the average at the end of Winter being normal temps. Because of these swings in temps, I think we will get 1-2 ice storms (hey, we are due for one). I think above average precipitation, as in rain and for snow fall I am thinking around 15″. It seems like a lot of our storms lately are in the 1-2″ range for rain. I think that for this Winter more than one storm will start off as rain and then transition to ice or snow. Remember one inch of rain can produce 5″ of snow. At least that is what has been mentioned in the blog past years..
    I, like a lot of bloggers blew last years forecast. It will be interesting to see what this year brings us.

  • mukustink

    Gary after yesterday I thought you may have needed ANOTHER vacation :).

  • JLRShar

    Gary- My children are asking: Do solar storms impact our weather here on Earth? And, do they have any impact on setting up weather cycles? Or, if they affect weather, do they do so in a more isolated way- kind of like when a hurricane interacts with our weather cycle? Thanks!

  • Jerry

    I’m a little confused as to how one accidently scrolls through the archives to find an old posts, copies and pastes part of it into a new post, and then proffers it as a current forecast.

    But then again, maybe that’s the basic premise of the LRC that I’ve been missing.

    • Jerry,

      But, that’s not how it happened. I had it saved on my computer as Blogger winter forecasts 2012. I wrote up today’s as Blogger winter forecasts 2013. When I awakened Tuesday morning I called up the wrong one from my computer. It did look a bit strange since I had just written it up, but I was so tired I just posted it. I usually put more thought into it. See, you often are overthinking things.

  • McCabe58

    ^lmao I was wondering the same thing Jerry, doesn’t make much sense at all…

  • RickMckc

    Some of you people are just rude.