Temperatures Rise, Rain Chances Drop

Good Sunday bloggers,

Today will be warmer and more humid than Saturday, but highs will stay below 95°, so our heat wave does not start yet.  Remember, we need three consecutive days of 95° or higher to have a heat wave and it looks like tomorrow is day 1.

MONDAY: The “heat wave creating machine”, or anticyclone will be located over the western USA Monday, but the heat will begin to spread east into the Plains on Monday.  Thunderstorms will be most likely across the Great Lakes and upper Midwest as the jet stream and northwest flow is located up there.


WEDNESDAY: The upper level high will elongate to the east and acquire a second circulation over the Tennessee Valley.  This will spread the heat east, putting our region well into the temperatures 95°+.  Thunderstorms will be found on the northern edge of the heat, mostly along and north of I-80.  So, this does help out much of the corn belt with stressful growing conditions, but Kansas and Missouri will be exceptions.


FRIDAY: The anticyclone will grow, but become centered in the western USA once again.  This will put our region in north to northwest flow.  This will open the door next weekend to a possible cold front and some thunderstorms.  We do not have high confidence in this chance of rain, but it will be something to monitor through this hot and dry week.


UPDATED RAINFALL FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY: We will be far from seeing any measurable rain as we are under the influence of  the “heat wave creating machine.”  There will be some decent rain from Minnesota to Ohio with possibly some thunderstorms creeping into northern Missouri Monday.  The Dakotas are in a severe drought and rainfall in those locations will be piddly.


The days since we have officially reached 100° counter has climbed to 1400 days!  We will make a run this week,  but at this time we feel we will fall short, but if Monday and Tuesday end up at 97°-99°, then Wednesday could be the day or even Tuesday.  If Monday and Tuesday end up being 94°-97°, then the streak will likely continue as the air mass is not quite hot enough.  100° or not, it will still be rather hot and below we will have some common and simple heat safety tips and reminders.


Here is a look at the annual average number of fatalities in the USA due to severe weather.  Flooding is higher than tornadoes and when you add flooding and lightning, it is around double of tornadoes.  Flooding can be just as sudden and swift as a tornado, “Turn Around Don’t Drown.”


Do you know what weather phenomena kills the most people per year in the USA?  It is heat with 131 fatalities on average per year, so this week be especially careful when out dealing with the heat.


Here are some simple heat wave tips.  The biggest one is DO NOT leave the kids or pets in the car as temperatures inside can rise to 140° in 5-10 minutes.  Also, stay hydrated if you are outside for any length of time.


We say stay hydrated and drink plenty of water, but here are some details on how much water you need.


Have a great week and stay cool.

Jeff Penner


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