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Take A Look At The Cycling Pattern: The LRC Moving Into The End Of 2017

Good morning bloggers,

Kansas City Holiday Weather Forecast Time-Line:

  • Today:  Fog and low clouds most of the morning. There should be some clearing, but remember, this is one of the shortest days of  the year for daylight, from sunrise to sunset, as winter begins Thursday.  Light winds will become northeasterly around 10 mph later in the day.  High:  49°
  • Wednesday:  Mostly cloudy and mild.  Light east wind shifting to the southeast later in the day.  High:  47°
  • Thursday:  Increasing clouds with a chance of sprinkles.  High:  57°
  • Friday:  Mostly cloudy. High:  35°
  • Saturday:  Partly cloudy. High:  31°
  • Christmas Eve:  Cloudy with a chance of snow showers or flurries.  High:  25°
  • Christmas Day:  Partly cloudy with a a few snow showers possible.  High:  23°

We are now just six days from Christmas Day and there are still a few uncertainties about the holiday forecast.  For Kansas City, we are still waiting for our first inch of snow, but we are still far from alone.  Omaha, Des Moines, Goodland, Dodge City, and Wichita, KS are also still waiting.

The Cycling Pattern:

The weather pattern has settled into a roughly 47-day cycle, likely in a 43 to 51 day cycle, as we have been describing to you for the past few weeks. Our initial forecast cycle length in October of 45 days or so seems to have worked by using a harmonic fluctuation technique.  The weather pattern is cycling according to the LRC. If the pattern was cycling in the 60-day range, then harmonic fluctuations would be a 30-day half harmonic, a 15-day quarter harmonic and so on. So, if it is indeed 47 days, then 23.5 days would be a half harmonic, 15.7 days would be a one third harmonic, and this is what we used early on. I used a 15-day harmonic to find the cycle.  I know; pretty complex isn’t it. But, just know that it did seem to work.  Now, take a look at 47 days before Wednesday, November 3, and how it lines up with December 2o, 2017, or 47 days apart:

LRC COMPARISON Cycles 2 & 3 2017_2018

The storm coming into the Pacific northwest is lining up almost perfectly with how it lined up 47 days earlier. Look at features numbered 1 through 5.  This is actually a rather incredible exhibit of this years pattern.  So, why is it not quite coming together once again for Kansas City?

How does this all tie together into the bigger picture? Remember, it is not just this one snapshot in time, a great comparison for sure, but it is the entire weather pattern that is cycling. Each complete 47-day cycle will continue to repeat through winter, spring, and summer.

Today’s Weather Video:

The Cycling Weather Pattern as of December 19, 2017 from Weather2020 on Vimeo.

In this video, I am trying to show you this part of the pattern and showcase one of the reasons why it is a struggle for the models to develop any storm that will impact KC in this part of the pattern. Oh, yes, I have known this, but there are always some twists and turns, seasonal differences to the pattern, that provide hope for something different to happen. Overall, however, as we are experiencing, the same things seem to keep happening. This could all change New Year’s week, but it also could warm up? If there is enough cold air available, it just may come through for KC before the year is out.

Thank you for spending a few minutes reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. Go over to Weather2020 and click on the blog over there to join in and share in this weather experience.  I will discuss all of this on 41 Action News tonight.

Gary

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1 comment to Take A Look At The Cycling Pattern: The LRC Moving Into The End Of 2017

  • plowguy65

    This continued lack of snow is so frustrating! However, as someone who would have to work on Christmas if it did snow, I am all for waiting just a little bit longer.