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“Superstorm Sandy” Part of the Pattern

Good Saturday morning bloggers,

Well, today in KC it will be breezy and cool with highs around 50°.  In Boston they have 25-30″ on the ground with snow and high wind the rest of the day and temperatures in the low 20s.  I would like to have the Boston weather!

I want to spend time today talking about the LRC.  I have worked with Gary and his theory for 20 years and it amazes me every day! 

The LRC theory states that a unique pattern sets up in October to early November, develops a cycle and then repeats through the winter, spring and even summer.  So, back on October 29th when “Superstorm Sandy” occurred Gary and I said this will be a big part of this year’s LRC, the big features always come back.  As we went into November we saw that the cycle was 50-55 days.  We saw that New England was in a “hot spot”.  This meant they were in an area where storm systems intensify and want to be located.  Our area was not in a “hot spot”, storm systems just fly through here.  They do not want to be near Kansas City.

Sandy was not the only storm for the northeast.  A snowstorm occurred a weak later.  There were also two other storm systems into the first 10 days of November that raced through the middle of the USA and became storms in the east.  As we went into winter we called this period the “Supertorm Sandy” part of the pattern.  This means there are 4 storm systems for the northeast during these 10-14 days with 1-2 of them having a good chance to become large.

So, based on the 50-55 day cycle and the New England “hot spot” we forecasted the northeast to see major impacting storm systems around December 20-22 and February 10-13.  There is proof on 41 Action News blogs and our new website weather2020.com.  December 20th saw a decent storm system with some rain and snow, but hurricane force wind gusts along the Jersey shore to Cape Cod.  This did not make huge headlines, but it was there.

Now here we are 103 days after Sandy, with a major Super Blizzard in the northeast.  Take 103, divide by 2 and you get 51.5.  This is right in the time frame of the 50-55 day cycle we discovered with this years LRC back in November.  Look below at the water vapor images from October 29th, Sandy and today, the Blizzard!  Wow!  I am amazed!

MAP #1: SUPERSTORM SANDY OCTOBER 29TH

SUPERSTORM SANDY

SUPERSTORM SANDY

MAP #2: THE SUPER BLIZZARD…FEBRUARY 9TH

SUPER BLIZZARD...FEBRUARY 9TH

SUPER BLIZZARD…FEBRUARY 9TH

The similarites are frightening!  A hurricane and winter storm taking on the same look 103 days apart, predcited by the LRC and not by the GFS or ECMWF.  So, this why we believe that the LRC is “BEST FORECASTING TOOL IN THE FIELD OF METEOROLOGY TODAY!”  Of cousre, you have to learn how to use it.  It is a complex puzzle and we are learing more every year.  The next storm in the series is already showing up.  We will talks about this below.
——————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————

Now, lets get to our weather here in Kansas City.  The next storm to affect the USA is now in the southwest United States.  This one will track into the northern Plains Sunday, bringing a more conventional 6-12″ blizzard.  We are on the south side of this storm, so clouds, wind and some rain showers is what we will expect.  The best chance for rain showers will be tonight.  Sunday will be a windy day with highs in the low 50s and a mix of sun and clouds.  See the three maps below.

MAP #3: TONIGHT AT 12:30 AM

RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT

RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT

Total rainfall across the area will be .05″ to .25″…mot much, but we will take what we can get!

MAP #3: 3PM SUNDAY…6-12″ blizzard for the northern Plains.

NORTHENR PLAINS SNOW STORM

NORTHENR PLAINS SNOW STORM

MAP #4: 50s and windy for Kansas City

Blog5

This storm is part of the “Superstorm Sandy” part of the pattern.  It will affect the northeast in a weak way.  Remember, on the 20th, there was a blizzard in the central and northern Plains and we had 2-3″ of snow with 55 mph winds.

The next Nor’easter is likely next week as the current storm lifts into southeast Canada and a new system drops south through the Rockies Monday.  This system will track east through the southern Plains then head northeast up the east coast.  See the next map.

MAP #6: WEDNESDAY.  THIS ONE HAS POTENTIAL TO BE BIG,  BUT COMPARED TO THE CURRENT ONE IT WILL BE SMALL!

THE NEXT NOR'EASTER

THE NEXT NOR’EASTER

Have a great weekend!

Jeff Penner

 

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44 comments to “Superstorm Sandy” Part of the Pattern

  • AFPILOTWXJUNKIE

    Just had a little snow flurry pass through PC. Maybe 10 flakes lol.

    Okay, LRC question. What makes October set te pattern? Does this mean we will be in this pattern through the summer or does a new pattern emerge as warmer weather factors begin to play into the equation?

  • rred95

    Would you provide a link of your long range prediction per lrc of todays blizzard in north east. Or direct me where i can find it.

  • Henley

    Looks like we’re back to the irrepressibly dull, drab and awful, boring KC weather

  • Dobber

    I was kinda of wanting you to point out when our 2-4 chances of snow with 1 being substantial will happen Jeff? I mean its great and all you predicted another “super storm” for the east. You are based out of Kc, lets here the forecast for us?!

    • Dobber,

      I can tell you exactly where the two to four chances are. One is tonight into Tuesday. And, the “chance” is going south of us. It produced the first snow in the last cycle, but this time we are getting missed. The second chance will arrive within ten days after this period, and there may be one or two more. For Kansas City it has been a struggle all season. This is why we are still sitting at under 5 inches for the season. Each one of our snows has been just a short 4 hour windows of snow opportunity. We know that our region is not in one of the hot spots. So, it makes it difficult to hit four hour windows of opportunities in the long range forecasts. For a place like Boston, New York, and New Jersey, well, they are in one of the expected hot spots and it is easier to make these long range forecasts for these areas.

      If I would have been more articulate on my forecast I would have stated something like this: We will have two to four more chances for snow, but we are still not in a “good” spot for anything significant. And, these chances may flow south or north of our area.

      It is frustrating for snow enthusiasts, or businesses that rely on snow. I will still be a bit surprised if we go this next two week stretch without at least one of these snow chances materializing. Hopefully we go more into one of the hot spots next winter.

      Gary

  • cornstalk

    Like I have stated before, if there is a storm anywhere in the country in the 50 to 55 day time range, it will be proof of the LRC. It doesn’t matter if it originated in the tropics like Sandy or not. If it doesn’t fit the pattern, it only counts it it hits the metro area.

    • RickMckc

      With regard to your comment, here is something interesting I just read about the current blizzard:

      Meteorologist Jeff Masters, of Weather Underground, said the winter storm was a collision of two storms and may end up among the Boston area’s Top 5 most intense ever.

      “When you add two respectable storms together, you’re going to get a knockout punch with this one,” he said.

      “http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/02/08/northeast-blizzard-warnings_n_2644643.html”

      I believe Superstorm Sandy was the combo of two storms as well, not just a tropical system.

  • Emaw

    “I would like to have the Boston weather!” 2-3 feet of snow, hurricane force winds, hundreds of thousands of people without power/heat, high tide with coastal flooding. I’m sure the vast majority of people in New England would gladly let you have it! Good lord.

  • sedsinkc

    Looked at snowfall reports from NWS office that covers New York City and SW Connecticut. My old home town of Meriden Connecticut, where I witnessed the Blizzard of ’78, received 30 inches of snow in less than 24 hours. We only got 20 inches in 1978 over 36 hours. New Haven county, where Meriden is located, appears to have been the hardest hit of anywhere in southern New England. Wallingford, which is the town just south of Meriden, received 35 inches, and another town in New Haven county received 38 inches. This area was near a major “pivot point” for the heavy snow bands from this storm, a concept I mentioned yesterday. I also mentioned yesterday that given the dynamics of this storm, a 40″ total was not out of the question. It came very close to that. Some spots in this region had snowfall for a time last night at a rate of 5-6 inches per hour. Glad I don’t have to shovel that, what a nightmare.

  • dpollard

    I would say there is about a 90% chance that KC doesn’t see any more accumulation until December 2013 or January 2014. In fact, I have concerns that this drought could continue for another year or two, much like the dust bowl which lasted about 4 years. We may see 2 more winters like this before we even think about coming close to normal. I may just put my snow blowers in storage until 2015.

  • StormyWX

    “A snowstorm occurred a weak later.”

    “weak”

    You mean to say week. Just pointing that out there.

  • Rock Hardon

    “So, this why we believe that the LRC is “BEST FORECASTING TOOL IN THE FIELD OF METEOROLOGY TODAY!”

    Please define “we”. Is it the people who work for the boss that developed the “theory”? Or is it people beyond Kansas City? If it is beyond KC, please provide the links to the White Papers and research documents that proclaim the LRC as the best forecasting tool in meteorogy today

    Gary has been promising a peer review for the bast 6 years. Last week, when questioned about the progress on the review, he said it would be another 5-6 years for a peer review.

    One would think such a revolutionary theory would be widely accepted throughout the weather forecasting community but searching for opinions on the LRC outside of KC has brought up nothing. Or is it that Gary is just a misunderstood genius like Einstein whose contribution to society will only be measured years after the heretics are silenced.

    • RickMckc

      Tell me again – why does anyone think Gary needs to do this?

      The guy says he has developed a system that he thinks gives him an advantage. Either it does or it does not. So what if he can “prove” it? Clearly, that’s not a major part of his mission. Do you have to justify to the people around you exactly why and how you do the work you do?

      Frankly, I’m kind of surprised that Gary even talks about his theory publicly. He doesn’t have to. It’s not required.

      It comes down to whether or not you trust his forecasts. Why bother with him or this blog if you don’t?

      • Rock Hardon

        Rick,

        Amazingly enough I do have to justify to those around me why and how I do the work I do. I also have to be able to prove, with factual documentation and data, everything I say.I am not allowed to come up with open ended theories that cannot be proven out and put them forth as the gospel under the guise of “it’s a work in progress” I also don’t get attaboys and high praise for doing my job right. Where I work that is the minimal expectation and is considered just getting by. I guess it’s all about standards, expectations, and professional integrity. Business lives and dies by it, entertainers and snake oil salesmen use it only when it benefits their cause.

        • mmack66

          Good grief, cut him some slack. He’s trying to predict the future with ever changing information.

          Also, most meteorological activity is a “work in progress” because weather is ever the same from one day to the next.

    • Rock,

      We is basically Gary and I. The reason is that if you were to use the GFS or ECMWF 5-7 days ago you would have not gone for a major storm. Using the LRC, you would have had a better chance going for a bigger storm. It is the best tool we feel is available. Not perfect, just better than the models. Also, using the LRC a 50 to 70 day forecast has the same questions as a 5 to 7 day forecast. We know there will be a storm in this region at this time, but the exact track is still something decided days to hours prior.

      I hope this answers your question, and it is still a puzzle that we do not have all the answers. We are still learning new things every week, every day.

      Have a great weekend!

      Jeff Penner

  • rred95

    Seds thanks for the live stream link yesterday to boston area keep me entertained and even somewhat satisified my fix for a decent snowfall.

    • sedsinkc

      You’re welcome rred. I watched the Boston feed and another occasional feed from Hartford all day, and went to bed after midnight feeling, as you did, like I received a bit of a snow “fix” even though we had none here and our prospects for any more snow this winter look bleak.

  • Emaw

    If a business in our area “relys” on snow in the winter to be profitable they’re missing the boat . I worked in the lawn/landscape industry for 15 years prior to going to work in public service. One thing for sure was the fact that we never relyed on snow it was just icing on the cake, we busted ass to make sure we had enough work to carry us through the winter. In this part of the country if you’re waiting for it to snow to make money that’s not very smart business.

    • chiefs

      I agree. It works both ways thou. I know in my business snow really hurts us. We might bring in less than half the normal cash on a snowy day So the less snow the better for us

  • sedsinkc

    Emaw, you are so right. Young people, or people relatively new to this area, should understand that the high snow totals locally in the winters of 2009-2010 and 2010-2011 were most unusual. The winters of 2011-2012 and this one (so far) are also very unusual, but in the opposite way. The bottom line is that this is not an area of the country where you can rely on snowfall to make a good living. Snowfall removal work should be viewed as occasional, supplemental income.

  • luvsno

    I am beginning to think that “rock” is one of those who was previously one of the persons banned from the Blog…but somehow has managed to skirt around the moderators with new name and new email address. He sounds too familiar. Please can you do something about his user name Gary and Jeff ?!
    This blog was starting to be very enjoyable again, like it used to be, but once again here “they” come.

  • rred95

    Im really suprised that username(rock hard on) is even allowed. And then gary and jeff respond to his questions, that will just provoke him. Yeah, its probably tushchaser.

  • OMG people have different opinions and this makes the blog unenjoyable? Really I think it makes it interesting. I would have to agree that if the LRC was the “best” forecasting tool available then everyone would be wanting to learn it! The NWS and every met out there would pay top dollar if it was the “best” forecasting tool out there. If it was the “best” tool out there I sure of a heck wouldn’t be working at a TV station. I would have sold the theory to the NWS and have a seminar that other mets would pay to learn this great tool. It’s statements like this that make people say really.

    The European model had this northeast storm pegged a weak out. The nam is horrible even 2 days out. People ask tough questions and they are said to be trouble makers. I call it checks and balances. There are things that don’t line up with the LRC and those are always not answered or it’s called an anomoly or something. Most people learned after WWII to ask questions and not take everything as gospel. Keep the good questions coming. If you want to praise Gary and all of his Glory go to his Facebook Fan page that’s what it’s for. If you want to come to a weather blog then you better expect all kinds of opinions pro and con. Have a great weekend everyone!!

  • Emaw

    Looks like we’re going to have a quick line of showers blow through in the next couple hours.

    • AFPILOTWXJUNKIE

      Looks like a few cells developing as well…don’t see any severe weather with that. But hey. A quick few downpours and we get some of that moisture. So much for, ” The best chance for rain showers will be tonight.”

      Looks to me best chance is in a little bit.

  • AFPILOTWXJUNKIE

    “http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013020912&time=INSTANT&var=SRATEI&hour=312″

    If you believe the models this is our chance for snow. I for one do not. But hey nothing like dashing your hopes on the rock that is KC.

  • sedsinkc

    Last comment on this (hooray). There is now a 40″ snowfall officially reported for the New England blizzard at Hamden, CT in New Haven county. My home town Meriden, about 10 or 12 miles from Hamden, now reporting 36″ total on latest statement from NWS New York. “http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OKX&product=PNS”

  • kellyinkc

    Incredible snow amounts wish we got some. I just got a Wind Advisory alert for Sunday.
    I got some flak on Yahoo when I mentioned the similarities of this and Sandy. Then I mentioned in about 50 days they might get hit again. Time will tell.

  • blue8091

    Great blog post today Jeff/Gary! 20 years of working together is impressive and also lots of work on the LRC. Sandy was 2 storms that collided…and looked very similar. 30″+ snow…that’s crazy! I remember earlier maps that have been posted highlighting the hot spots for this winter and they were right on target….we’re just not target material this winter :( At least we are getting small bits of rain here and there – it’s better than nothing!

  • HeatMiser

    Since we’ve had no winter weather to speak of for two years now, at someone is. 40 inches measured in Connecticut…that’s cool. 5th largest snow total ever for Boston, and largest 24 hr snowfall for Boston. Many places with 3 feet as well. Highest wind gusts were 76-83 mph in various locations. Very impressive.
    Old Man Winter who takes care of the NE U.S. – you are a snowstorm genius! Old Man Winter who takes care of NE KS – you are truly a looser dude.

  • AFPILOTWXJUNKIE

    “http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013020918&time=INSTANT&var=SRATEI&hour=288″

    That’s pretty impressive it hold to form.

  • HeatMiser

    It’s Sunday…did we forget to do a weather blog entry today guys?

  • AFPILOTWXJUNKIE

    Weather is so boring around here they are trying to come up with something I say I guess.

  • stl78

    Windy….mid 50’s n clear….save your energy mr penner

  • AFPILOTWXJUNKIE

    Severe weather outbreak down south. Two tornados reported in southern Mississippi.

  • Emaw

    Yeah, that line of thunderstorms is impressive , stretching from the great lakes all the way to the gulf coast!

  • sedsinkc

    .07 inches of rain in KC North last night. It probably all evaporated in today’s wind and sun.