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Sunny’s Rain Dance

Good morning bloggers,

Sunny

Sunny The Weather Dog was caught in action this morning doing a rain dance. I think it is going to work for the south KC metro area. Farther north and east, in the middle of the worsening drought, is the lease likely area to see rain today.

Screen Shot 2018-07-26 at 7.32.07 AM

The area of rain was increasing, with a few thunderstorms as you can see above, at 7:33 AM.  This band of rain was shifting southeast and it appears to be growing and heading our way. This will create a rather cool summer day in the areas that have the rain into the afternoon with temperatures in the 60s in spots.

Kansas City’s Weather Time-Line:

  • Today: A 90% chance of rain this morning.  Temperatures will drop into the 60s in the areas that get the rain.  It will warm into the 80s over northern Missouri where the rain will miss once again.
  • Tonight: Clearing out with dry conditions. Low:  63°
  • Friday:  Mostly sunny with a few clouds. High: 82°
  • Saturday:  Mostly cloudy with a few showers and thunderstorms possible. The chance of rain is 50%.  High:  80°

I read something fascinating on the Weather Underground blog today.  In our Weather2020 LRC based hurricane forecast, our target area for this season is the northeast Gulf of Mexico.  We have been forecasting, since January, that it would become more active in this region than in most other areas of the Atlantic Basin. It already has with the early Subtropical Storm Alberto, but peak hurricane season is weeks away.  Take a look at the recent interesting conditions over the oceans.

From the Weather Underground Blog:

Gulf Of Mexico Currents loop-current-jul21

Above:  Ocean currents in the Gulf of Mexico as depicted by the U.S. Navy HYCOM model on July 21, 2018.

Above: Ocean currents in the Gulf of Mexico as depicted by the U.S. Navy HYCOM model on July 21, 2018. Colors represent the speed of the current, in centimeters per second. Dark red colors are approximately 1.2 m/s (4 mph) in the Loop Current as it traverses the Florida Straits and up the U.S. East Coast (where it is called the Gulf Stream). The Loop Current was flowing directly from the Caribbean through the Florida Straits and up the east coast of Florida, while an clockwise-rotating eddy that broke off from the Loop Current in ealy July was spinning in the central Gulf of Mexico. A smaller counter-clockwise rotating cool eddy was just to its west, and another clockwise-rotating warm eddy farther to the west. Image credit: U.S. Navy.

There’s potential trouble cooking in the Gulf of Mexico for the coming peak portion of the Atlantic hurricane season: a near-record amount of heat energy in the ocean waters. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are near average, 29° – 30° C (84° – 86° F) in the eastern Gulf, where persistent cloud cover and windy conditions in recent days have acted to keep SSTs from warming to above-average levels. However, SSTs are 30° – 31°C (86° – 88°F) in the central and western Gulf, more than 1°C (1.8°F) above average. That’s a lot of heat in the waters for potential hurricanes to feast on.

Sea Temps sst-jul25

But SSTs don’t tell the whole story. When a slow-moving hurricane traverses a shallow area of warm ocean waters, the hurricane’s powerful winds will churn up cold waters from the depths, cooling the surface and putting the brakes on any rapid intensification the hurricane may have had in mind. But when unusually warm ocean waters extend to great depth—down 100 meters or more below the surface—the hurricane’s churning winds simply stir up more warm water, allowing dangerous rapid intensification to occur if wind shear is low. Last year’s trio of great hurricanes—Harvey, Irma, and Maria—all underwent rapid intensification into major hurricanes when they were located over waters with above-average SSTs, where the warm waters extended to great depth. Thus, total Ocean Heat Content (OHC) is a key metric used to determine the potential for hurricane rapid intensification.

We will be monitoring this closely.  Activity is expected to begin increasing after around the 5th to 10th of August.  There is more on the blog at Weather Underground, so go over to that blog and read more.  Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. Join in the conversation on the Weather2020 blog.  Have a great day.

Gary

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