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Sunny & Frigid!

Good morning bloggers,

Temperatures dropped to near zero this morning. The official low, as of 6 AM was ONE lonely degree.  A storm system will go through a transition and then the energy will track north of Kansas City. In the past couple of weeks these storm systems have found different ways to bring us the weakest possible precipitation solution, if that makes sense.  This storm’s energy will track north of KC Sunday afternoon and this means our window for snow will open and close very quickly. Will it be enough to get one inch of snow?

1This series of four forecast maps shows the simulated radar for various times beginning this evening. The storm system approaching is starving for moisture and will have very limited supply to work with. As discussed on 41 Action News and in the previous blog entry there are north winds all the way down the Mexico coast and into the Gulf of Mexico. With the lack of moisture we will have to rely on lifting of the cold air mass. Any lifting at all will result in areas of snow as it is very easy to saturate such a cold air mass, but with the storm tracking to our north on Sunday in the upper levels, this lifting will be very short lived.  And, as a result the chance of the snowflake contest ending is not a certainty.

This next forecast map shows the snow rapidly expanding by midnight. The way this snow develops should be a good example of why forecasting the weather in our part of the world is so very difficult. It will go from nothing on radar to a large area of snow approaching in just a few hours.

2

 

This area of snow will rapidly expand, move northeast, and then abruptly end or taper off to some pretty snow flurries.

3

 

The snow will likely spread in and immediately start accumulating by 3 to 4 AM at the latest. But, then by 6 AM, just two to three hours later the back edge of the snow may very well be approaching:

4

 

If this new NAM model is exactly right and this latest data is correct on the amount of precipitation, then we will get around 0.07″ liquid which would likely be enough for around one inch of snow. But, what if it is off and we only get 0.02″, or the other direction and we get 0.13″.  This is likely all this storm has the potential of producing. So, this is why we are in the dusting to 2″ range. The trend is for this event to struggle to produce the one inch necessary for ending the snowflake contest.

So, three storm systems will have passed by KC in the past ten days and we will have pretty much gone oh for three! It is not a good trend for the season, but it’s very early.  Let’s try to enjoy this small window of weather excitement.

Have a great day!

Gary

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95 comments to Sunny & Frigid!

  • Drought Miser

    Ok cool updated blog thanks Gary!!
    It is a confusing storm !!
    1. Very cold DRY air in place and still funneling southward.
    2. Not very organized.
    3. Where’s the moisture going to come from?
    4. Forecasted way to far out (always a Jinx)

  • Drought Miser

    Uummm where’s Kalee? Oh never mind it’s Saturday and Apon is on the air. She is doing a much better job in live broadcast’s I knew all she needed was some warming up to the new team, so Cudo’s to whomsoever is coaching her good job!

    • Drought Miser

      Huummm sometimes when you write something and then read it it back it looks like it has a differnt meaning, my post looks like I’m saying Apon is doing a better job the Kalee, that is not what I meant thier both doing great! I meant Apon is doing better then when she first started live broadcast’s. :)

  • erock89

    Channel 1+3 is saying 2-4 inches possibly more. He is saying something about a jet stream intensifying the moisture? Is that true?

    • Drought Miser

      One thing that is true is that if this storm misses us that’s three in a row kinda like the Chief’s 0 for 3, oh and Belt man went to the Yanks Booooo, on a more positive note the Chief’s will win tomorrow and Winter is still not here!!!

    • luvsno

      You obviously have not watched 3 + 1 this morning. She says 1 – 2 inches. Their head met always does this on a Friday night. He bumps totals up, then the next day…Saturdays, the weekend met always differ. Then come Monday night, the head met has nothing to say about his own Friday night forecast for the weekend not verifying.
      At least 41 is pretty consistent between head met and weekend mets.

  • SouthOlatheGraham

    Channel 8+1 is saying a widespread 1-3 inches
    Channel 4+1 is saying 1-3 inches but near 2 inches in the metro.
    Channel 3+1 is saying 1-4 inches maybe more… He said something about the jet stream increasing over head producing more lift?

  • DaleGribble

    Folks, I don’t mean to be rude, but most of the forecasting models you are all using are insufficient. I don’t mean to slight my dear buddy Gary — he makes due with what he has — but we need the big guns on this one.

    Just got off the ham radio with an acquaintance. Now, I don’t want to reveal the identity of this person, but let me just say he’s a “company guy”. Anyway, he has access to the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) supercomputer, more sophisticated than anything we have. He also jimmied it up with flux-capacitor re-channelling (to fine-tune the modeling even more) and, folks, this storm is going to be a doozy.

    Will we get 1 foot of snow? 3 feet?

    Possibly. Get to the stores, get ready, and load up. Improve upon your skills. Do you know how to skin a deer (if you need food)? Do you know how to make emergency antibiotics in case of infection?

    Don’t be caught off guard, people.

  • VerySkeptical

    Sorry snow lovers, another hyped BUST.

  • TRUMAN

    Headed out to get bread, milk, booze, cigs, snow shovels, ammo, generators, gas mask, mre’s, and anything else I can think of to get me through this dusting of snow. Stay safe everyone.

  • SouthOlatheGraham

    My guess is 1-2 inches in the metro area with 2-4 inches north and west of KCI

  • erock89

    So Gary using your LRC when should our next chance be for snow?

  • Emaw

    A good sign of things to come for us possibly, it’s warmer in Alaska right now than it is here. 2nd half of the month should be much closer to normal temperature wise.

    • luvsno

      Emaw, yes, it is warmer in Alaska. I grew up in Seward. 2 brothers still living up there. One in Anchorage and one in Seward. I spoke to the Seward bro last night, and they have been getting rain..they call it messy rain, since it has been frozen (below zero) for a couple pf weeks. They would rather have the below zeros back ! Huh ??? lo
      I told him to quit dumping that cold air out to the lower 48…he can have it back !!

      But it happens this way a lot of times. They are warm when we are cold, and vice-versa.

  • jstone

    This is why I picked the third week of January as the first inch of snow. I am most likely wrong, but after last winter, who knows!

  • terrydsnowy

    Gray most of there anythere station’s are staying that the snow will last most of the day and come to an end around Sunday evening. I thank 1 inch or less is kinda of cutting it close. I thank a dusting to 2 or 3 inches on the safe side.

  • kellyinkc

    “http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sP2EzVSyY0k”
    snows a coming!
    I used to work in grocery stores in high school and college, this is pretty close to the mentality. LOL

  • SouthOlatheGraham

    NAM is showing 1-2 metro wide with 3 inches just north of I-70 in Central KS & Northeast KS with 4 inches in North Central KS…

  • kellyinkc

    time to go mix fuel for the 2 stroke blower!

  • chiefs

    12z gfs = so so sad snow lovers :( so so sad 1 inch at best if its right

  • Emaw

    Kelly, you’ll probably be able to use your leaf blower for this one . . .

  • Emaw

    You beat me to it!

  • kellyinkc

    on light fluffy snow it works awesome.

  • MikeL

    The 00z GFS and now the 12z GFS is also trying to setup a roughly 1″-3″ snow track in southern KS and along I-44 in Missouri around Monday night and Tuesday after the Sunday storm misses our area. The misses just keep coming…

  • Jrock

    My forecast!!!
    Misery/MU will choke again like they always do in big games!!
    Go Auburn!!!
    Chiefs will lose to a worthless redskins team, then blame the freezing rain on the loss.
    1/2 inch of snow for the KC Metro and the snow competition lives on.

  • TRUMAN

    What channel is the KU football game on today?

  • terrydsnowy

    We are going to get snow on Sunday. Come on some of you bloggers we are going to get some snow it may not be a lot. Some of you act like we are going to get missed all together.

    • Drought Miser

      Well we are all a little gunshy when it comes to KC snowcast’s 100 times burnt 200 times shy stick around a bit and you’ll catch on to the old Bait and switch and the Hype and Run, Flakes then None, the list goes on and on…. Yes I want snow but I’m not hanging my hopes on a wishcast

  • TRUMAN

    What’s the new models looking like? Any change or are they staying the same as the last run?

    • Drought Miser

      Actually model runs this close to an event all but remain constant… and they have been consitant =low snow totals :(

  • TRUMAN

    Agreed!!! It’s all about the hype.

  • chiefs

    18z NAM = more of same……big hype….little results

  • Emaw

    That’s a bone dry northeast breeze we’ve got blowing in here.

  • weatherman brad c

    Snow development near dodge city kansas right now.

    Brad

  • TRUMAN

    Followed this blog for years. Same old hype and same suckers fall for it every time. Absolutely hilarious that some people still fall for the hype. Ratings is the money maker. The further out Gary starts shouting significant storm then each day its downplayed til it goes north or south of us. He didn’t even wear that goofey snow sweater so you know its a dud. Must have been a complex storm. I bet the next stom we get is complex also.

  • SouthOlatheGraham

    A cluster of snow has developed in Central KS moving slowly to the north and east… Clouds will be in KC very soon increasing the moisture slowly.

  • stjoeobserver

    RAP and NAM aren’t currently agreeing on location or intensity of the storm it appears. Here’s a look at snowfall rates at 14Z tomorrow:

    RAP:
    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/RAP-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013120720&time=INSTANT&var=SRATEI&hour=018

    NAM:
    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013120718&time=1&var=ASNOWI&hour=020

    The NAM hurries the system right on out of the area quite quickly and takes a much more Northerly track than the RAP is indicating at the present. RAP also has much more focused moisture. Curious to see the next few cycles of RAP as well as watch how the snow develops in Central Kansas and its track tonight.

    RAP also shows significantly more precipitable water than the NAM. Indication NAM isn’t putting enough moisture into the solution? Time will tell.

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/RAP-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013120720&time=INSTANT&var=PWATI&hour=018

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013120718&time=1&var=PWATI&hour=020

  • kellyinkc

    from the NWS. AND no Advisories yet, that says a lot. Withholding buying fresh gas till later.

    Tonight Snow likely, mainly after 3am. Increasing clouds, with a low around 14. East southeast wind 7 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
    Sunday Snow before 11am, then a chance of snow and freezing drizzle. High near 26. East southeast wind 8 to 13 mph becoming light and variable in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.

  • stjoeattorney

    DRY CHECK HE DEW POINTS….

  • Emaw

    Dew point sitting at 0 right now.

  • TRUMAN

    JRock how about them COLORADO BUFFALOS!!!!!!!!!!

  • terrydsnowy

    In wind up

  • terrydsnowy

    in wyandotte KS theysaid we could get 1 to 2 inches of snow.

  • mukustink

    This lrc is letting me down. How do I explain it? I need to look at the data and make it fit somehow. Maybe the cycle length is 67 not 61 or 51 not 61. I will find a way to explain it you can count on that!

  • mukustink

    WOW the RAP has us getting 3-4 inches! I wonder what happened to make it increase? I know wish casting by me! It’s only really showing 1 inch. When’s the next *poof* storm coming??

  • Emaw

    I can’t see us getting anything more than flurries out of this.

  • TRUMAN

    Lezaks
    Ridiculous
    Contraption

  • mukustink

    Emaw you are probably correct. My forecast is a dusting to 4 inches that should about cover it LOL!

  • Hockeynut69

    Lacking Real Consistency!

  • mukustink

    How the heck do you decide a championship on penalty kicks! Only soccer would have something so stupid.

  • TRUMAN

    That’s some funny manure right there but very true!!!!!!

  • mukustink

    If anyone is in Columbia, MO please look for the Missouri defense as they forgot to get on the plane for the SEC Championship Game!

    Does anyone know where to get the TV ratings from? 41 has been running a commercial that says they were #1 in November from 5-6:30PM. It has a footnote at the bottom of the commercial in real tiny letters of course. Just curious as to where one can view the ratings. I looked on the Facebook page of Gary and KSHB but I don’t see anything there saying they are number 1. Just curious because that would be an amazing jump in ratings for them. I don’t have Facebook so it may be “hiding” somwhere that I can’t see.

    Missouri just gave up! That was pathetic defense after the offense failed on 4th down. As usual Missouri chokes on the big game.

  • TRUMAN

    Looked like the chiefs colts playoff game.

  • TRUMAN

    MSU VS OSU getting ready to start. Gonna be a good one!

  • Emaw

    Jack Squat isn’t knocking at the door, he just knocked the door over, this thing is toast!

  • TRUMAN

    Gary will remind everyone that the forcast is for the ENTIRE viewing area which includes Des Moines to Joplin and Columbia to Junction City. Is a cya deal.

    • Hang in there guys and gals. Watching radar will almost always throw you off. We have been forecasting, at least 41 Action News has, around an inch of snow. It will be developing in the newt few hours. I will be tracking it. Who is with me? I will start a blog around 3 AM.

      Gary

  • stjoeattorney

    POOF POOF POOF POOF

  • TRUMAN

    And POOF again

  • trinlivco

    Yes poof again. Doesnt matter now that we are in winter mode. Even if we get 50+ in. of snow this winter.North Missouri is locked in a really bad drought. All we can hope for now is a wet spring and a couple of floods on Grand River to end this drought. Hope everyone has a great Christmas. TR

  • TRUMAN

    Know your pain. We have 4200 acres we farm and went through it a few years ago. It isn’t any fun.

  • Kcchamps

    looks like metro and north will get 1-2″

  • Pete Capone

    Wonder how long it will be before Gary sticks his neck out again 5+ days before a “storm”?

  • Emaw

    I will report my total from north Olathe tomorrow.

  • TRUMAN

    How exciting waiting up all night to see a dusting to 1″ of snow. You would think this is South Florida and had never seen a 1″ of snow. Hello folks its December in the Midwest and snow is normal.

  • mukustink

    Really? Folks will stay up all night to see a dusting of snow? If we were going to be getting a foot that would be one thing. Thunder snow would be another reason to stay up but a dusting if we get it. I have a better idea… GET SOME SLEEP!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  • Emaw

    You never know champs . . .

  • snowmiser

    Gary you must have thick skin. These people are bullies, but I guess with making predictions days ahead it’s expected plus your pretty competitive and colorful so people are always going to challenge you since you always want to be the best. What other weatherman in kc is up at 3am on a blog or giving weather updates on none working on twitter? None.

  • TRUMAN

    Hope we don’t lose power tonight.

  • TRUMAN

    Hope we don’t lose power tonight. I only bought 20 gallons of milk and 15 loaves of bread fof this complex and significant snow storm.

  • TRUMAN

    Who needs updates on a dusting of snow? Come on are you serious?

  • LetItSnow

    I won’t believe it will snow until something shows up on the radar. Doesn’t look like much of a storm right now.

  • Supercell

    We are very fortunate to have a meteorologist who is passionate about our weather. No one will be excited about an inch of snow by the time February rolls around, but this is our FIRST inch of snow and there’s a major contest on the line.

    The competition reads this blog religiously and they do their best to plant bloggers who will disrupt our conversations. In many cases it works. But I, along with many others, genuinely enjoy this blog. It’s extremely helpful to have bloggers post maps, read other people’s take on the forecast and have thoughtful discussion. Dissent is healthy, but hatred drives good people away (which is the intent of the planted bloggers). It is my hope the strength and tenacity of the good people who post here will wear out the trolls.

    I won’t be up at 3a, but I’m glad we have someone who will be. That is passion and dedication. We should be so lucky to have the same passion and dedication in our own jobs. It is worthy of applause, not ridicule.

  • TRUMAN

    I think Katie Horner is on here:-)

  • VerySkeptical

    (LRC) Lezak’s Rediculous Contraption. That’s the best thing l have read on this blog in a long time. Love those decreasing totals. What a busted forecast!

  • Freeze Miser

    Old Freeze Miser is with you, Gary! Take the high road. Thanks for all you do. See you on the new blog!

  • weatherman brad c

    Looking forward to the 3am sunday morning blog post gary, just like skc won the mls cup championship I believe that and did it. I also believe when I wake up sunday morning that it will be already snowing to.

    So there is no POOF to it, I know its going to snow and everyone else does to. I believed skc could win tonight and sam with the snow I believe it will snow tomorrow.

    Brad

  • SouthKCMO

    Stupid question, when will we know the dry air is gone, just once it start snowing? Radar is showing snow :)

  • CaptainFlair

    Light snow coming down in the northland by zona Rosa. Light dusting on the streets now. Hopefully this will saturate the air just enough to get this system pumping out some big flakes!