Good morning bloggers,
Temperatures dropped to near zero this morning. The official low, as of 6 AM was ONE lonely degree. A storm system will go through a transition and then the energy will track north of Kansas City. In the past couple of weeks these storm systems have found different ways to bring us the weakest possible precipitation solution, if that makes sense. This storm’s energy will track north of KC Sunday afternoon and this means our window for snow will open and close very quickly. Will it be enough to get one inch of snow?
This series of four forecast maps shows the simulated radar for various times beginning this evening. The storm system approaching is starving for moisture and will have very limited supply to work with. As discussed on 41 Action News and in the previous blog entry there are north winds all the way down the Mexico coast and into the Gulf of Mexico. With the lack of moisture we will have to rely on lifting of the cold air mass. Any lifting at all will result in areas of snow as it is very easy to saturate such a cold air mass, but with the storm tracking to our north on Sunday in the upper levels, this lifting will be very short lived. And, as a result the chance of the snowflake contest ending is not a certainty.
This next forecast map shows the snow rapidly expanding by midnight. The way this snow develops should be a good example of why forecasting the weather in our part of the world is so very difficult. It will go from nothing on radar to a large area of snow approaching in just a few hours.
This area of snow will rapidly expand, move northeast, and then abruptly end or taper off to some pretty snow flurries.
The snow will likely spread in and immediately start accumulating by 3 to 4 AM at the latest. But, then by 6 AM, just two to three hours later the back edge of the snow may very well be approaching:
If this new NAM model is exactly right and this latest data is correct on the amount of precipitation, then we will get around 0.07″ liquid which would likely be enough for around one inch of snow. But, what if it is off and we only get 0.02″, or the other direction and we get 0.13″. This is likely all this storm has the potential of producing. So, this is why we are in the dusting to 2″ range. The trend is for this event to struggle to produce the one inch necessary for ending the snowflake contest.
So, three storm systems will have passed by KC in the past ten days and we will have pretty much gone oh for three! It is not a good trend for the season, but it’s very early. Let’s try to enjoy this small window of weather excitement.
Have a great day!