Good Sunday morning bloggers,
Highs on Sunday were in the 50s and 60s across western Kansas Saturday. This warm air will win out today, for one day, as we will see highs in the 50s! (MAP #1)
MAP #1: SUNDAY @3PM
The changes begin on Monday, and what happens Monday and Tuesday will set up what happens with the potential winter storm. The reason this is the case, is that a storm system will track across the middle of the USA Monday. The best chance for rain is in eastern Missouri, although we could see a brief rain shower. It is not the rain that is the main feature to watch, but rather the cold blast behind the system. The strength of the cold blast will help to determine what precipitation types occur in our area Wednesday night-Thursday as the storm moves out of the Rockies and induces warm/moist air to come north to try and replace the existing cold air. Remember, from Saturday’s blog, that the depth of cold air above you determines whether you see rain, freezing rain, sleet or snow. MAPS #2 and #3.
MAP #2: 6 PM MONDAY. THE COLD BLAST ARRIVES
MAP #3: GRAPH SHOWING PRECIPITATION TYPES
Based on the latest data and thinking, if the precipitation starts early enough on Wednesday evening, it may start as snow it many locations as the cold air will still be deep. As warmer air moves in aloft Wednesday night, the snow will lift north as precipitation changes to freezing rain and sleet. At this time, an ice storm will be possible Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Liquid amounts could reach .75″ to .95″! The more sleet, the less power line problems there will be, but roads will be a mess. The more freezing rain then the worse the power lines, but better for the roads. Pouring rain with temps in the 20s would make most surfaces wet expect overpasses, elevated surfaces. If there is sleet and snow first then the rain, roads will be a mess. SEE MAPS #4 AND #5 for the latest thinking.
MAP #4: WEDNESDAY 530 PM
MAP #5: WEDNESDAY NIGHT. Notice how the rain, ice and snow are all in the viewing area. This makes for a tough forecast as a shift of 50-100 miles will make a huge difference. The shift would come in the location and depth of the cold air over your location. We will have an update this evening.
Have a great Sunday and enjoy the 50s!