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Sunday Warm Up and Latest on the Winter Storm

Good Sunday morning bloggers,

Highs on Sunday were in the 50s and 60s across western Kansas Saturday.  This warm air will win out today, for one day, as we will see highs in the 50s! (MAP #1)

MAP #1: SUNDAY @3PM

BREEZY AND MILD TODAY

BREEZY AND MILD TODAY

The changes begin on Monday, and what happens Monday and Tuesday will set up what happens with the potential winter storm.  The reason this is the case, is that a storm system will track across the middle of the USA Monday.  The best chance for rain is in eastern Missouri, although we could see a brief rain shower.  It is not the rain that is the main feature to watch, but rather the cold blast behind the system.  The strength of the cold blast will help to determine what precipitation types occur in our area Wednesday night-Thursday as the storm moves out of the Rockies and induces warm/moist air to come north to try and replace the existing cold air.  Remember, from Saturday’s blog, that the depth of cold air above you determines whether you see rain, freezing rain, sleet or snow. MAPS #2 and #3.

MAP #2: 6 PM MONDAY.  THE COLD BLAST ARRIVES

 Blog1

MAP #3: GRAPH SHOWING PRECIPITATION TYPES

icestorm

Based on the latest data and thinking, if the precipitation starts early enough on Wednesday evening, it may start as snow it many locations as the cold air will still be deep.  As warmer air moves in aloft Wednesday night, the snow will lift north as precipitation changes to freezing rain and sleet.  At this time, an ice storm will be possible Wednesday night into Thursday morning.  Liquid amounts could reach .75″ to .95″!  The more sleet, the less power line problems there will be, but roads will be a mess.  The more freezing rain then the worse the power lines, but better for the roads.  Pouring rain with temps in the 20s would make most surfaces wet expect overpasses, elevated surfaces.  If there is sleet and snow first then the rain, roads will be a mess.  SEE MAPS #4 AND #5 for the latest thinking.

MAP #4: WEDNESDAY 530 PM

IT MAY BEGIN AS SNOW IF IT STARTS EARLY ENOUGH

IT MAY BEGIN AS SNOW IF IT STARTS EARLY ENOUGH

MAP #5: WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  Notice how the rain, ice and snow are all in the viewing area.  This makes for a tough forecast as a shift of 50-100 miles will make a huge difference.  The shift would come in the location and depth of the cold air over your location.  We will have an update this evening.

AN ICE STORM?

AN ICE STORM?

Have a great Sunday and enjoy the 50s!

Jeff Penner

 

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123 comments to Sunday Warm Up and Latest on the Winter Storm

  • Kole Christian

    What is the high temperature for Thursday at this point?

    • The high temperature on Thursday will likely be near 32 degrees. There are still a lot of questions this far out.

      • We have three more days to track this potential storm before it arrives. It does look like a wet storm with a very good chance of that 1/2″ to 1″ liquid forecast. The first thing to look for is how strong the cold front is tomorrow night into Tuesday.

        Hang on bloggers, we are in for a fun week of weather watching, and there is a follow up storm system for one week from now. Winter’s grade could go up if both of these storm systems produce.

        If you wonder where this storm is within the cycling pattern go check out the long blog I wrote on Weather 2020: http://www.weather2020.com click on the blog over there. Have a great day. Let’s watch Jeff explain this storm at 5 and 10 PM on 41 Action News.

  • Kole Christian

    “http://wxmaps.org/pix/mcigfs.png”

    Has been trending towards more snow. Still too far out though. I think we have to give credit to Gary though. He said last that a major storm would affect us towards the end of this week, rain or snow, looks like he’s going to be good.

  • Kole Christian

    Right*

  • Greenstein

    Jeff,
    Great blog as per usual. While I know the storm is still days away, do you believe there will be any measurable snow totals within the 435 loop metro area?

  • f00dl3

    It’s gonna go poof! Each model run has been less and less!

    Model Run SN IP ZR RA (TOT)
    GFS 16/00 8.56 2.85 0.12 0.04 1.35
    GFS 16/06 3.00 4.39 0.00 0.13 1.11
    GFS 16/12 10.01 1.28 0.00 0.16 1.21
    GFS 16/18 13.73 0.00 0.00 0.05 1.19
    GFS 17/00 10.72 0.01 0.05 0.03 0.98
    GFS 17/06 6.59 0.02 0.32 0.02 0.89

    • sedsinkc

      I wouldn’t say it will go poof, but if we wind up with only half an inch of liquid equiv from an ice storm that would be a good thing. I had noticed since Fri that the UL and surface storms appear to weaken as they move into the Plains and toward the western Great Lakes and was surprised at how high the projected precip totals were.

  • Emaw

    We’re going to get buried, remember, whatever model shows the most snow that’s the one that’s right!

  • Skylar

    We’re getting close enough that the NAM is starting to be useful. If you compare the 06z GFS with the new NAM at the same time, the NAM is notably farther south with the cold air and the low.

    06z GFS: “http://1.usa.gov/14ZLfyF”

    12z NAM: “http://1.usa.gov/UuLU97″

  • Kole Christian

    Considering this is KC I imagine we get 4 inches of wet snow and then rain melts it off later in the day.

  • Kole Christian

    Foodl3 you are correct. But it still gives us an idea of what might happen. Both GFS and Nam are in line to give us snow.

  • HeatMiser

    Snow storm with sleet and freezing rain mixed in at times. It’s gonna get ugly people.

  • Theo

    Models = FAIL all winter season, even the trending (on location of snow). Wait until the storm comes on shore Tueday. Then we’ll have a good idea of who’s gonna get whacked.

    Early bet? Looks like Omaha to Minneapolis 12+ inches of snow. I have purchased salt and seasoning in case I have to eat crow for KCI getting 1n inch or more of snow in Feb.

  • Emaw

    KCI is going to get 1″ per hour come Thursday let alone 1″ in February . Katy bar the door! This is going to be epic. By the way I was able to get out of my driveway yesterday, it took me a while to dig out after Friday night’s storm but I got her done.

  • Dobber

    I wonder if some bloggers fear winter weather? Did your parents not teach you how to drive in it?

  • Emaw

    Dobber , who might you be referring to?

  • Skylar

    The new GFS is pretty similar to the 06z, just a bit cooler.

  • f00dl3

    QPF keeps going down…

    • Skylar

      Can you post a link? The 12z was wetter for KC according to this: “http://1.usa.gov/VYtrDC”

      • f00dl3

        Yeah – your right. Guess I was looking at 60 hour increments. “http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=MO&stn=KMCI&model=gfs&time=current&field=pcompare” shows it good.

  • StormyWX

    Wait, so I’m confused, sorry. You’re telling me that SLEET would be worse for the roads compared to ICE? How is that?

    • Dobber

      Yes sleet is hard to plow/salt. It would be a mess

    • jeffnskc

      Stormy: Thought the same thing. Think I’d rather drive on sleet than ice.

    • Skylar

      I think Jeff was saying that if the freezing rain falls hard enough, it won’t actually get a chance to freeze on roadways leaving them mostly wet. If there’s already snow and sleet, then you’ll have all of that on roads plus a layer of ice.

  • weatherkcmo

    So according to Jeff this will be an all or mostly sleet and ice event?

  • HeatMiser

    We will get a mind blowing blizzard! Hold on to your seats kids, it’s gonna be a bumpy ride.

  • AFPILOTWXJUNKIE

    Okay, so Jeff called for snow starting off then ice/sleet for the remainder. I for one think he is wrong. Guess we will see.

  • Kole Christian

    I’m nor surprise moisture is going down, I figured 12 inches was unreasonable but some people must have bought into it.

  • Kole Christian

    Something to consider with this storm, snow ratios are going to be low with the near freezing temperatures. 10-1 or less

  • u10girls

    Sorry guys ****poof***

  • stjoeattorney

    if you believe these maps! 06gfs snow map link. “http://grib2.com/gfs/CONUS_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_114HR.gif”

  • Brocksmama

    I do not like winter weather because I have a hard enough time walking with my bad foot. I have a dog that has to be walked and having to traverse icy sidewalks makes it dangerous for me to walk.

  • Kcchamps

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer&param=precip_p36&cycle=12&image=gfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_105_precip_p36.gif

    Latest GFS still gives us around 1″ of precip all of that will fall while temps are in the mid to upper 20s

  • HeatMiser

    Yeah, it’s gonna be a bad storm for us with lots of snow so get prepared now!

  • Emaw

    Any model that doesn’t show heavy snow is wrong, throw it out!

  • HeatMiser

    Another KC weather channel meteorologist says all precip types are possible, but mentions the first snow total predictions I’ve heard…said over 6 inches is possible.

    Cracks me up…”So weather guy, what type of precip will we get?” “Um, rain, sleet, snow, or rain.” Thank’s for the daring forecast and thanks for clearing that up for us. LOL

  • Kole Christian

    There’s a lot more models showing snow right now. My prediction right now about 4 days out is 4 inches with a glaze of ice on top.

  • Kole Christian

    Any other predictions at this juncture?

  • McCabe58

    Seems like there’s a lot of little kids posting on the blog today. Could you maybe try and post what you’re actually seeing from the latest models, instead of acting immature and trying to scare people who don’t know you guys are being sarcastic?

    • HeatMiser

      Oh god, it’s McCabe again spouting off holier than thou platitudes. Shhhhhh McCabe.

      Now, that we have that unpleasantness out of the way….expect 6-10 inches of snow, sleet and ice.

  • Skylar

    Who was it that used to say 6-10″ for every storm back in 2010 and 2011?

  • Emaw

    This blog does not discriminate , all ages are welcome.

  • Kole Christian

    I hope people don’t plan their lives around comments on a blog. We might get 2 feet. But it’s just not reasonable.

  • mattmaisch

    12Z GFS completely different on the track of the ULL vs the 06Z run. Much further south this time. The ULL will drive this whole thing. The further south it goes the more significant of an event this will be for us. If it goes further south, the entire column will stay cold enough for snowfall and we will likely be hit hard. If it goes further north, we will rise above freezing on Thursday, and any ice that we had previously experienced will likely melt. The current GFS shows a favorable track if you want snowfall. 10″ or so according to the IWM map posted below.

    “http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013021712&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=144″

  • AFPILOTWXJUNKIE

    I say we will get between 4-12″ of snow sleet ice. Majority snow.

    I like to hedge my bets so I bought some points.

    Anybody going to set the line it snowfall? I’m thinking 4. Over under at -1.5

  • mattmaisch

    The 12Z ECMWF also indicating a different solution than the 00Z did. Futher south as well, but it is still bullish on turning this thing to the north more quickly than the GFS. Harder to read this model, but it is still more encouraging than the prior run was.

  • sedsinkc

    Another, zoomed-in take on GFS snowfall forecast, fwiw. about 5-10″ for immediate KC metro, more north “http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=EAX”

  • sedsinkc

    Also fwiw, not buying it. Still think the ULL goes too far north. I think it’s more like 1-2 inches of snow in KC max, the rest ice or ice/some rain.

  • mattmaisch

    Latest GEM (Canadian Moedel) also with a nice solution for KC. Notice the 540 thickness to our south and the location of the ULL also south of KC. This would be a very favorable track for heavy snow in KC. This model has been very bullish on this solution.

    “http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=gemglb&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNM&hh2=114&fixhh=1&hh=108″

  • Kole Christian

    Matt,

    I hope we get that much.

  • sedsinkc

    Of all the models out there, I like the Canadian the least in general. That’s my personal bias. We’ll see how this plays out, this is fun.

  • Kole Christian

    It’s nice having a storm like this to track.

  • erock89

    does this upcoming storm fit the LRC? If so can someone explain how it does? Thanks!

  • HeatMiser

    I think we will have a way clearer picture of how this will sort out tomorrow.

  • McCabe58

    The national weather service in pleasant hill seems to agree with Jeff on the snow to start then changing to sleet/freezing rain. It’s going to change alot before the storm actually comes on shore, so I’m going to try and contain my excitement. The ice storm back in 03′ I believe was really fun as a kid, but now that I have kids and my own place and all I don’t like the idea of ice as much lol. Bring on the snow though!

  • Screaming Yellow Zonker

    Are we talking about a possible 2002-level event? Reason I ask…this is off topic but I have a bad person living with me at the moment and I do not want to be trapped with him in the house for any length of time, and the worse the power problems the worse that situation will be. I’m going to have to evict him and he knows it. He doesn’t have anywhere to go and is entirely dependent on me and the atmosphere is bad. I stay away from him as much as possible. I’d much, much rather go out and shovel 12 inches of snow with a plastic spoon than be trapped indoors with him, especially with power problems happening. No, he won’t help shovel. He’s some kind of mentally ill, I think, and I just haven’t been able to get him out of my house yet. I’d rather be the one outdoors shoveling than indoors with him in any case. Long story. Back to the subject–are we talking about a 2002-level event or will it be less ice than we got in 2002 if we get ice? Ever since 2002, Gary usually comes on TV and says “this won’t be a 2002-level event.” Anytime, Gary, anytime.

    • willy

      Either you’re a novelist or need to just take some action and kick the dude out. Be safe.

      • Screaming Yellow Zonker

        To address your first point, yes, I do happen to be a writer. I may overexplain at times; goes with the territory. I wish someone would overexplain how we’re not going to get downed power lines this Thursday.

        To address your second point, yes, I have the paperwork in the works to evict him after March 2. Do you expect me to do it in an ice storm? During the night in 2002’s ice storm, the weatherman said “You are taking your life in your hands if you go outdoors.” More on that in a moment. I love to overexplain, so I will explain how I was listening to TV in 2002 with no power, and how things are sadly different in 2013 from 2002 on that front.

        In 2002 I had this little Radio Shack battery-operated TV that would go for hours. It was such a comfort during the ice storm when the power was off. But these days, with broadcast TV having changed to digital, I have a very hard time getting a signal in the basement. I have a portable TV, but it doesn’t take batteries, so it will lose its charge much sooner than that old-style one used to with its AA batteries. But the worst thing is the digital TV signal. It doesn’t carry nearly as well as the old VHF signal, and I really miss the old VHF and UHF TV during weather emergencies. Miss the way you could simply change out batteries, too.

    • HeatMiser

      Damn did you digress into the wilderness.

  • Skylar

    The GFS has been showing for several runs the possibility of some light snow on Monday, especially off to the southeast. The new NAM is now showing this too.

  • f00dl3

    (This is how I see it right now – this is NOT this stations forecast! This is based on my interpretations of the models and knowledge of past storm tracks such as this.)

    What we know right now based on the last 2 days worth of model trends is this:

    – The storm will have between 0.90″ and 1.30″ of liquid moisture to work with.

    – Right now it appears that it will be a mix of all precipitation types in the Kansas City metro area. Snow changing to sleet, possibly mixing with freezing rain before changing back to sleet at the end. There is also the chance that if a comma head forms we could clipped by some moderate snow on the back end of the storm.

    – The threat for a prolonged period of ONLY freezing rain appears minimal at this time. This is NOT the ice storm of 2002. Maximum freezing rain only accumulations would probably be 0.2″ or less.

    – Snow accumulations in the Kansas City metro area based on the past 2 days worth of model runs would be from a dusting on the south side to as much as 5″ in the Platte City area.

    – Sleet accumulations could be significant. (Based on a 6:1 ratio*) SLEET accumulations across the metro area could be 2-5″.

  • f00dl3

    *6:1 sleet:water ratio is given strength of cold surface air. Provided temperatures may be 25-33, it may lean a higher ratio. Sleet:water ratios can be anywhere from 3:1 to 8:1 based on what I have found – if I’m wrong let me know!

  • Greenstein

    What is the potential for advisories, watches, and/or warnings being issued for the area? Any idea when those may start showing up?

    • Skylar

      They usually post watches 48 hours in advance, so they could go up as early as the afternoon update tomorrow.

  • Skylar

    The NAM seems to be the opposite of the Euro, it has the low going into the Panhandle of Texas by El Paso.

  • Kole Christian

    Greenstein,

    If the NWS issues any watches or warnings they will likely issue them Tuesday night or more likely Wednesday morning.

    • Jacob Honeycutt

      Actually with the data suggesting a storm like this and the fact that all the data is for the most part agreeing, they will likely post a winter storm watch for the area by tomorrow night.

  • f00dl3

    Latest NAM has a deep surface cold air mass at 21/06 with the 0 degree line near Joplin, but has the 500mb 540 line almost to the Iowa border. That’s a bit concerning for freezing rain.

  • f00dl3

    Note the NAM also has the 850 millibar 0 line south of Joplin – and actually staying put through the first 2 images of the storm’s progression. This would lead to sleet. If that erodes, it would change to rain. Ignore the freezing rain comment – 18z NAM would have a sleet storm :)

  • Kole Christian

    18z is an off run, so hopefully that freezing rain part won’t come true.

  • f00dl3

    For what it’s worth, the Weather Channel is really out there in terms of what they are forecasting – morning low of 28 with a high in the lower 40s????! If that panned out, we’d only have a short window for problems.

    I don’t even consider TWC a reputable forecasting source, so I’m throwing that out the window right now :)

  • Skylar

    EAX just posted this:

    “Here is your Sunday afternoon update on what is looking to become a MAJOR winter storm across much of the Central United States, with impacts beginning Wednesday night and continuing into Friday. The good news is that while this system is still about 2500 miles northwest over the Pacific ocean, model guidance we utilize is coming into better agreement with the track of this system as it approaches. Unfortunately, this track does suggest widespread winter weather with precipitation in the form of snow initially, with many areas in Kansas and Missouri changing over to sleet or freezing rain. There is increasing confidence that heavy snow will be possible over Nebraska, Iowa and parts of Kansas, with moderate snow accumulations also possible over the northern half of Missouri. As always, any slight deviation in this system can cause a shift in where mixed precipitation or heavy snow falls. While today’s post discusses the broad scale impact of this event, over the next few days we’ll begin to discuss amounts and the impact on the local area.”

  • HeatMiser

    I just saw an update on TWC and they said KC is a tough call… a wiggle one way and we get nothing, a wiggle the other way and we get more than six inches. Joe Bastardi on Weatherbell.com shows KC and surrounding area getting more than a foot of snow.

  • McCabe58

    I wouldn’t pay too close attention to what TWC says.. Not very accurate IMO.

  • AFPILOTWXJUNKIE

    18z GFS is out

  • Baseball Mike

    Good afternoon weather team–I haven’t blogged for quite a while–seems as though all the weather services are struggling with this storm. Even the Topeka weather service here is not sure–they are keeping their temps pretty warm for the duration of the storm. I am guessing we will see the whole scope by tomorrow if even then. Some other weather blogs I have read across Kansas are stating it could be a crippling storm for some of us. Michael/Berryton/Topeka

  • Skylar

    Looks like this run is farther south. I don’t think these maps are very reliable, but it does show higher snow amounts.

    “http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013021718&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=126″

  • Kcchamps

    Latest GFS has 1-1.25″ of precip for the metro and has a colder solution

  • AFPILOTWXJUNKIE

    “http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer&param=1000_500_thick&cycle=18&image=gfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_093_1000_500_thick.gif”

    That 540 line is going to be tricky. But the trend has been to continue south move. IWM says we are going to get 11 inch…..around. Think about that.

  • Emaw

    Apocalyptic !

  • weatherkcmo

    Come one! We know better than to get excited this far out.

  • OlatheMatt

    Well we know SOMETHING is coming. I will probably go grocery shopping on Tuesday evening just in case the power goes out and the roads are really bad. If ice comes and we get battered with it than you know power lines will be down. I dont plan on driving anywhere Wednesday through Friday.

    I can see it already, people having their power out and then crying bloody murder that KCPL has not turned on their power within 6 hours. Meanwhile 100,000 other residents are without power and only so many trucks to go out and fix things. The way people behave during natural or weather disasters sometimes really irks me.

    Expect just a big storm that will come and go, but also keep in mind the threat of possible significant icing. There IS danger with this storm system.

    • Theo

      Agree 100% Very few, it seems these days, has any self-reliance at all. Completely reliant upon government services to bail them out (Hurricanes Katrina & Sandy). Also the ice storm of 03.

      Those who fail to prepare deserve it.

  • f00dl3

    All the modelitus stuff being said, I seem to remember a very similar setup during the winter of ’06 or ’07 where all the models were painting this huge snowmaker over us but it ended up being about 3″ of sleet in the northland with an inch of snow on top of it. Not saying it’s gonna be the same result, but does have some memories being brought back.

  • dpollard

    No way does the latest GFS happen! Fantasy! Remember that this is the time to hum that Public Enemy tune…. Don’t Believe the Hype! We will see an increase in clouds and sprinkles/flurries as this storm gets stretched out, we get dry slotted and left to ask, ” how did that just happen again”! The Royals will win 95 games before we have a storm like this! Our winter is over.

    How much snow will KC get?

    .01-.25″…..50 percent chance
    .25-.50″…..25 percent chance
    .50-.75″…..10 percent chance
    .75-1.0″…… 5 percent chance
    1.0″-1.5″……1 percent chance
    Greater than 1.5″…..less than 1 percent chance

    • HeatMiser

      If you don’t believe GFS, then why are you looking at it? If it doesnt say what you want it to say you don’t believe it? LoL

    • AFPILOTWXJUNKIE

      So who is hyping this up? Not any of the METs here, they have run ominously silent.

      While Public Enemy was the group, that line was said by one annoying person, that’s all he said in the entire song, that dude wears a clock around his neck.

  • f00dl3

    To all those concerned about power issues – NONE of the model runs that I have seen show this being a significant freezing rain event. At the most 0.3″ of ice accmulation was shown by a GFS run yesterday, but that has backed off. Current trends are leaning towards sleet and snow.

    My personal belief is that precipitation will fall prodominantly as sleet with maybe a few inches of snow and less than 1/10″ freezing rain accumulation on power lines in the Kansas City metropolitan area.

  • OlatheMatt

    dpollard, which is more likely, the Royals getting a new owner and having true transformation as an organization, OR we get 6-10 inches of snow in the metro.

    • HeatMiser

      The chances of the Royals ever being good are far more remote than the possiblity of us getting 6-10 inches of snow with this storm. That’s an easy one!

  • f00dl3

    Beware that sleet accumulations could be significant in this setup, roads will be a mess! Right now I’m thinking a 3-6″ SLEET band would cut through the metro area, with maybe an inch of snow on top of that.

  • Emaw

    When do you think Sly James will hold his first presser to update the citizens on the impending storm and the city’s plan?

    • OlatheMatt

      KCMO is pretty broke so this storm could really hurt. However, they did manage a way to sneak a secret vote to approve a tax payer funded $100 million street car for 2.5 miles while their school district remains unaccredited. So who knows!

  • stjoeattorney

    12-16 HERE KCI 7-11 WHEELER 4-6 AGAIN

  • miller90

    This setup reminds me of early January 1999. The snow was supposed to be epic, cold air was never thick enough. We got a massive sleet and freezing rain storm. No snow at all.

  • Emaw

    Live shots from beside metro highways should begin sometime Tuesday and will be going full force by the Wednesday morning rush.

  • OlatheMatt

    Oh of course emaw. Here is the thing, they can report live from some bad roads and everyone is saying “STAY OFF THE ROADS!” and do not go out on roads with sleet, ice, snow, unless utmost necessary. They are very slick and dangerous.

    What happens? People still try to get out for their personal errands and get stuck and wonder what happened lol. Even with all the closings, alerts, and in your face news about how bad the roads are people still think they can defeat the weather. Its not me I am worried about on the roads, its the guy passing me on 435 trying to do the speed limit or more when in very bad road conditions.

    Be smart people!