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Sunday T-Storms and Severe Harvey Flooding

Good Sunday bloggers,

We have one main day of thunderstorms during the next 7 days and it happens to be today.  We have not had good timing on our rainy days this week.  Remember the day of the eclipse?  And now today, when there are all kinds of outdoor events.  Let’s time out the rain for today.

KC Weather Timeline:

Now to 1-2 PM: Widespread rain and thunderstorms with very heavy downpours and gusty winds.  We do not expect severe weather or major flash flooding. Temperatures 67°-71°.

1-2 PM to 7 PM: Partly to mostly cloudy with temperatures in the 70s.

7 PM to 11 PM: Slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm with temperatures in the 60s.

We are tracking a disturbance north of Manhattan, KS as of 1030 AM. It is moving southeast at 35 mph and once it passes the rain chances will end.  At present course and speed it will take until about 2 PM for this disturbance to move by KC.

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POWERCAST 12 PM SUNDAY: You can see the disturbance, curl, north of Lawrence as the main thunderstorms are lined up along I-35.  Again, we expect very heavy downpours, lightning and gusty winds, but severe weather and flash flooding are not expected.  Now, that being said, in the very heavy downpours watch for brief flowing water and hydroplaning.  It will take until 1-2 PM for this rain to move out.

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POWERCAST 7 PM SUNDAY: The main rain will be long gone with just a slight chance of a new shower or thunderstorm.  After the main rain exits, it should turn out to be a decent afternoon and evening.

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Let’s take a look at Harvey and the week ahead.

As of 930 AM Sunday the center of Harvey was barely moving and located southeast of San Antonio.  The heaviest rain was well northeast and east of the center.  It was still classified as a minimal tropical storm with 45 mph winds.  The wind is not the issue anymore, but the rainfall is about to become insane.

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So far, the rainfall has been incredible and this is just day 2 of 6 or 7.  Look at these amounts estimated by radar so far.  This is ridiculous with amounts already at one to two feet from east of Austin to Galveston.  This is a huge area and will only get worse.

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Harvey is basically going nowhere for several days.  Here is the forecast map for Monday. The center of Harvey is basically in the same location as it is on Sunday.  We will be having nice weather.  This is no coincidence as we will be in the sinking air around Harvey this week.  So, this means we will see nice weather as Harvey produces staggering rainfall in southeast Texas.  There is a chance a few locations will see 50″ of rain!  Yes, 50″ of rain.

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This is the map for Thursday and you can see there is almost no change.  The wind field around Harvey as fallen apart, but the rain continues.  Incredible!  This is likely going to end up as a very ugly and horrific weather event.

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Have a great week,

Jeff Penner

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1 comment to Sunday T-Storms and Severe Harvey Flooding

  • sedsinkc

    Houston already has had officially 24 inches of rain in the past day, with 20 inches or more expected in coming days. In a city prone to flooding, they’ve never experienced anything like this. And it’s not just Houston. Much of SE Texas is being inundated by insane rain amounts.