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Sunday Evening Severe Weather?

Good Sunday,

Today will be mostly cloudy, dry and windy with highs 75°-80°.  Then, after 6 PM we will be watching the radar closely as there will be a chance for a few thunderstorms.  If they form, they  could be severe with large hail and damaging winds the main threat.  There are two main factors that could inhibit thunderstorm formation.  One, is how warm will we get at the surface.  There will be quite a bit of clouds, but most will be high clouds, so highs will warm to 75°-80°.  This may not be quite warm enough to overcome factor two.  There is a warm layer at about 3000-6000 feet.  This is what we call the “Cap”.  So, basically we will have to watch radar and the set up closely through the day.  Let’s go through this forecast.

We are in a slight risk today, mainly west of I-35 for the potential of thunderstorms containing large hail and damaging winds, especially after 6 PM.

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3 PM SUNDAY: This is a set up that indicates severe weather potential, especially April-June.  Again, the limiting factors are in place and there is no thunderstorm activity at this time.

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7 PM TO 3 AM SUNDAY: This is the time when the cold front overtakes the dry line and the “Cap” weakens.  So, we will have to watch for thunderstorm development from KC south and east.  If they form after sunset, they will likely be elevated with large hail the main threat.  There are some models indicating a few strong to severe thunderstorms will form in eastern Kansas to southwest and west Missouri.  Again, we will have to watch the situation closely.

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7 AM MONDAY: This the morning of the Royals home opener and there is snow falling in Nebraska!  The snow will stay north of I-80, so the weather is looking good for the game.  We will start the day with temperatures 45°-50°.

 

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3 PM MONDAY: It will be sunny and windy with temperatures in the 60s.  The wind will be blowing towards right field.  Let’s Go Royals!  We are the official meteorologist of the Kansas City Royals.

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WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY: This is our next chance of widespread rain.  We could see amounts .25″-1″.  We will need it by then as it dries out fast this time of year, especially with all of the wind.

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Keep an eye to the sky tonight and have a great week.

Jeff

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