Typed at 3:15p
Been keeping eyes on the radar all afternoon; those who follow on Twitter have seen that. And while earlier in the day, the Storm Prediction Center was mulling over issuing a T-Storm Watch, it has yet to happen. That said, I do still believe we have a shot at a few storms later tonight.
The radar right now looks like this:
The activity in Northern Missouri is pushing off to the East. But I am watching two other areas. The first being in Western Iowa. That development appears to be trying to move to the Southeast. Also, in the last few minutes, new storms have bubbled in Northcentral Kansas, North of my hometown of Salina.
Up top, on the visible satellite, here is how all of this looks:
You can see the cloud bubbles through Kansas, almost right along I-70 and then down to SW Kansas. There’s certainly enough heat out there to get the puffy clouds going. But will they produce anything? The environment appears ripe for it and whatever does form could produce large hail. At this time, that looks like the biggest threat. The other impact from these storms may be high wind gusts near 50mph. Again, that would be with the storms that decide to form.
I will tell you, after looking over ALL of the afternoon forecast information, none of the models have a very good handle on this. Even the short-range, high-resolution convective models are struggling with initialization (matching up with what’s actually happening right now). When I pull up those various model and see what they said was supposed to be going on at 3p, I was not impressed. This gives me far less confidence in what they spit out as a solution for later on tonight. And over these last few days, there has not been a “go-to” model that’s been getting it right.
The consensus is for storms to be in the area by about 7p tonight. But all of these models failed to pick up on what’s happening now (the activity in Northern Missouri, the thin line forming in West Iowa). So I am suspicious. Even our in-house “Microcast” models (based off the NAM but tinkered with) did not pick up on what’s going on now. And then those models did NOT show anything moving through the area at 7p. Matter of fact, four of the six versions of Microcast said NOTHING moves through KC tonight. So needless to say, if you’re just looking at the models, it’s a head-scratcher.
But studying the radar and the satellite, I *do* think we’ll see storms fire up in Kansas, along that I-70 area. I also have a feeling some of the activity in Iowa will drift to the South and spark a few storms near the Metro. What time? I would still like to believe the 6-8p window is best to start seeing development in our area. Out of all the models, I feel the HRRR has handled things best (certainly not perfect). It actually has the storm North of Salina developing on time and then sort of fills in with storms to the East as the evening wears on. It also depicts storms form along those cumulus clouds in Southwestern KS as well.
We had been expecting a good chance of rain for Monday with this next wave passing through. However, the more I look at the data for Monday, the less impressed I am. To be honest, the chances don’t look that great. It will likely be cloudy all day and appear like it WANTS to rain; but something tells me we’ll have some disappointed people out there. There will probably be some pockets of rain, but as of right now, I am not optimistic about “good” rain falling across the area.
I’ll be on air with the forecast tonight at 5p & 10p. In the meantime, I’ll be updating twitter with info as I see it. Meantime, back to work! Still have a lot of graphics to make for the newscast.