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Sunday afternoon update

Typed at 3:15p

Been keeping eyes on the radar all afternoon; those who follow on Twitter have seen that. And while earlier in the day, the Storm Prediction Center was mulling over issuing a T-Storm Watch, it has yet to happen. That said, I do still believe we have a shot at a few storms later tonight.
The radar right now looks like this:
2

The activity in Northern Missouri is pushing off to the East. But I am watching two other areas. The first being in Western Iowa. That development appears to be trying to move to the Southeast. Also, in the last few minutes, new storms have bubbled in Northcentral Kansas, North of my hometown of Salina.

Up top, on the visible satellite,  here is how all of this looks:

You can see the cloud bubbles through Kansas, almost right along I-70 and then down to SW Kansas. There’s certainly enough heat out there to get the puffy clouds going. But will they produce anything? The environment appears ripe for it and whatever does form could produce large hail. At this time, that looks like the biggest threat. The other impact from these storms may be high wind gusts near 50mph. Again, that would be with the storms that decide to form.

I will tell you, after looking over ALL of the afternoon forecast information, none of the models have a very good handle on this. Even the short-range, high-resolution convective models are struggling with initialization (matching up with what’s actually happening right now). When I pull up those various model and see what they said was supposed to be going on at 3p, I was not impressed. This gives me far less confidence in what they spit out as a solution for later on tonight. And over these last few days, there has not been a “go-to” model that’s been getting it right.

For example, look at this image I put together earlier:
4Models

The consensus is for storms to be in the area by about 7p tonight. But all of these models failed to pick up on what’s happening now (the activity in Northern Missouri, the thin line forming in West Iowa). So I am suspicious. Even our in-house “Microcast” models (based off the NAM but tinkered with) did not pick up on what’s going on now. And then those models did NOT show anything moving through the area at 7p. Matter of fact, four of the six versions of Microcast said NOTHING moves through KC tonight. So needless to say, if you’re just looking at the models, it’s a head-scratcher.

But studying the radar and the satellite, I *do* think we’ll see storms fire up in Kansas, along that I-70 area. I also have a feeling some of the activity in Iowa will drift to the South and spark a few storms near the Metro. What time? I would still like to believe the 6-8p window is best to start seeing development in our area. Out of all the models, I feel the HRRR has handled things best (certainly not perfect). It actually has the storm North of Salina developing on time and then sort of fills in with storms to the East as the evening wears on. It also depicts storms form along those cumulus clouds in Southwestern KS as well.

Looking ahead…
We had been expecting a good chance of rain for Monday with this next wave passing through. However, the more I look at the data for Monday, the less impressed I am. To be honest, the chances don’t look that great. It will likely be cloudy all day and appear like it WANTS to rain; but something tells me we’ll have some disappointed people out there. There will probably be some pockets of rain, but as of right now, I am not optimistic about “good” rain falling across the area.

I’ll be on air with the forecast tonight at 5p & 10p. In the meantime, I’ll be updating twitter with info as I see it. Meantime, back to work! Still have a lot of graphics to make for the newscast.
-JD

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20 comments to Sunday afternoon update

  • weatherjoy

    Great write up JD.

  • luvsno

    Thanks jD….
    So ……it doesn’t appear that “Hot and humid with t-storms by this evening” is going to happen ? :(
    Sure could use more rain. Big cracks along foundation are here again. (Cracks in the dirt…not cracks in the foundation). Guess will drag out the hose to water it down some tomorrow if we don’t get any rain.

    • Dobber

      Yeah….. Drag it out. Wettest dag gum drought I’ve ever seen! I bet we get 1/2″ tonight. I like the frowny face! Does moisture give you that much anxiety?

  • luvsno

    From the NWS on Facebook…10 min ago…

    We’re watching storms over northeastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri slowly track to the southeast along a southward advancing cold front. While conditions are not ideal for severe weather there may be occasional damaging winds with this activity. Heavy rain is likely with this activity as well as frequent cloud to ground lighting. Let us know if you see and strong or damaging winds and how much rain you’ve gotten.

  • Hockeynut69

    I am seeing plenty of lightning to my NW. Storm is approaching us in the northland. USA team played Marti ball in the end and it cost them.

  • Drought Miser

    Ummm Folk’s we are under a warned storm for once in a springtime brace, brace…..

  • Drought Miser

    Outflow boundary through KCK nice rain cooled air update JD

  • kellyinkc

    At 230 this afternoon we left Macon, MO. We hit a few showers and downpours on highway 36. It looked like the main show was north of 36 by the dark skies that way. Got home to Raytown at 6 mowed the lawn and just finished as my phone was alerting me to t storms.

  • HH

    Man it got dark really quick. Winds picking up pretty well here in OP.

  • Hockeynut69

    Unbelievable all kinds of lightning, rain to the North, East, and West of me but not one drop just west of Liberty. Friends in Liberty say it’s pouring, they’re 3 miles directly from my house.

  • Weatherwatcher

    Nothing much happening here in Lee’s Summit. It’s becoming darker to the west, and the winds have picked up slightly. According to the radar, it appears that the storm will split in two, one cell going north of us, and other heading south…

    My family in western Kansas have had rain; heavy at times.
    Hopefully, rain will reach us!

  • Ammpx8

    Downpour here in Merriam! Lots of thunder, lighting and my patio is flooding. Lights just flickered as well.

  • Hockeynut69

    The line on the radar heading my way was so solid then on radar it literally disappeared when it was within a mile of me. It has now reformed less than a mile SE of me. This is different than the isolated storms hitting all around but to see the energy dicipate like it did and is now pouring SW and SE of here is simply cruel. Mother Nature is a @$&!/

  • kellyinkc

    lost Dish. switched to antenna. dark and thunder now in Raytown.

  • kellyinkc

    now down pour

  • Dobber

    Wettest drought I have seen! Pouring in midtown!

  • Weatherwatcher

    Still nothing yet in Lee’s Summit. Maybe a bit of thunder…

  • Hockeynut69

    This rain event was just like the soccer game, so promising to advance until the final minute then just ripped away. Drought is back on at my house. Going to bed, no need to think I will get to see any rain at this point.

  • HH

    Wow, the temperature has really dropped. Feels really nice.

  • robyn corzine

    Thanks JD Great blog as usual.