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Sunday Afternoon Forecast Discussion

Good afternoon bloggers,

1 to 4 inches of snow are expected on New Year’s Eve

Snow is likely by New Year’s Eve morning, but there are a few concerns I have.

  • The storm will be shearing apart/weakening as it approaches and passes Kansas City by New Year’s Day.  We will have a weakening system.
  • There will likely be two waves of snow, the first in the morning may be the strongest and most aggressive, but it should move fairly fast.  1 to 2 inches are possible in this lead band
  • The main wave will move through Monday night, but it will be losing it’s punch

We have high confidence that it will snow and accumulate.  If this were a strengthening storm it would have potential to produce higher snowfall totals, but it is not a strengthening storm. This storm will be weakening and stretching out as it moves by.  This would limit most of the snowfall accumulations to the first wave of energy that is due in early in the morning.

Here is a look at the new NAM model that just came out:

This may be a bit aggressive on precipitation amounts so let’s see how this comes together later tonight. There will likely be a first wave, somewhat of a break and then the main storm will approach as it stretches out and weakens.  This NAM model shows that there will likely be a small area that receives some morning heavy snow and it looks like it will be near Kansas City.  This would be a fast moving band of snow so I think that the NAM’s prediction of 0.25″+ liquid is a bit high.   Here is a map George posted this morning:

As you can see above, by 2 PM the first wave of snow is long gone with the second wave of snow approaching. This second wave will be associated with the shearing out upper level wave as you can see on this next forecast map valid at 9 PM Monday evening.  Since the wave will be stretching/shearing as it moves across Kansas the lifting that will cause bands of snow to form will end and we will likely be left with rather light snow during the evening limiting any additional  accumulations.  Here is the shearing wave:

Let us know what you think as we share in this weather experience.  Today is George Waldenbergers last day at 41 Action News. What a last forecast he will be making tonight.  Good luck to George as he heads off to Orlando Florida.  This will likely be the last snow he has to predict for a very long time!

Have a great evening!  We will keep you updated on 41 Action News.

Gary

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152 comments to Sunday Afternoon Forecast Discussion

  • Take over Gary, My fingers need another drink…

  • ChiefsFan

    Sound like Gary is thinking more snow

  • mukustink

    Gary how is Vegas? I think many may be upset come tomorrow. Is the storm there yet? Inquiring minds want to know. Are you going to watch the Chiefs get killed? What is your forecast? Thanks and good luck in Vegas. Are you interviewing there?

  • mukustink

    The NAM has been pretty agressive with the moisture. Show the GFS. I guess Champs is on vacation as well. I’ve posted my map of the day already.

  • Adam Penney

    18z NAM more aggressive. It’s too aggressive.

    Gives the metro 4-6 inches.

    • Adam,

      Most of the snow on the latest NAM occurs during a short period of time in the morning. It may be a bit overdone. The afternoon wave of snow is under an inch on the new NAM model.

  • SouthOlatheGraham

    To me, I think 3-5” of snow is possible. Maybe 6” in some areas

  • Adam Penney

    Leak says 1-4 inches of snow in this blog entry.

    That sounds about right. Ill be pretty shocked at any widespread reports in the metro area of over 4 inches.

  • McCabe58

    Hey everyone, don’t let the trolls win. Just ignore them, I’ve gotten pretty good at it! Trolls= douche(tush)chaser and muku… Donkey might be one of them too. Just ignore and we can still keep this blog good. They have absolutely no purpose here. Give no informative weather info and continue to attack bloggers for no reason whatsoever. Pretty sure it’s all one sad little person in his mommys basement. Anyways have a good day and for the ones that know what they’re talking about please keep us up to date with the new data! Thanks in advance! :)

  • thomasmidwest

    New NAM “http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2012123018&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=039″

  • Freeze Miser

    Awesome! I am ready for the snow to start. I’ll be getting out tomorrow morning with the pup and enjoying the winter weather. Does anyone think there is a chance that the first wave will slow down leaving us with more snow than anticipated?

  • Adam Penney

    Agreed Gary. Continues to look like a pretty minor event.

  • mukustink

    Agreed I think 1-3 is safe. Nothing more then 3. This baby is going to be going *poof* as it approaches.

  • McCabe58

    2-4″ still looks to be a good bet. This one could surprise us!

  • thomasmidwest

    Someone in the area could get 5 plus wonder who it will be time will tell

  • weatherbro

    Someone in the area might get 3 or 4 and that might be a little high. A solid 1-2 maybe 3 in the immediate metro looks good. Weakening storm.

  • stjoeattorney

    …..5-8 inches…. these are the ones that jump up and bite forecasters in the butt.

  • weatherbro

    What makes you think we’re going to get a widespread 5-8″? Not seeing it.

    • stjoeattorney

      Saw this all the time as a kid in 70s and first part of the 9s. the events that were to be minor or ripped up held together abd blew up into 5-8 INCHERS the weather ios cycling so i am of the opinion it will occur again

  • SouthOlatheGraham

    http://www.crh.noaa.gov/wxstory.php?site=sgf

    Looking like more snow on this map…

  • f00dl3

    18z GFS shows more QPF than the NAM… :O

  • ChiefsFan

    Is this snow going to be a big major event?

  • f00dl3

    GFS keeps it all rain in the metro area for most of the morning band and only gives us 1-3″ snow, but hints that areas just north of the metro may get upwards of 6″

    “http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS/2012123018/USA_SNODI_sfc_042.gif”

  • My middle finger is getting stiff…I,m cutting it off…NO more eggnog for it… :)

  • Freeze Miser

    I would love someone to post a summary of what Action 41 says about the weather on tonight’s news. I’m out and about and can’t watch TV.

  • rred95

    It will be somewhat interesting to see if the second wave is a dud (as gary thinks) or if we will get moderate snow (as most other outlets think)

  • mukustink

    Why not go 1-5 or 1-6 inches that way you really have covered your butt. Most accurate is not hard when your forecasting a little to a lot :)

  • stl78

    Did Gary say it would b a did,or just give his interpretation of a model run?

  • Adam Penney

    Look at the blog entry people. Look at what the National Weather Service has said.

    Nobody who is paid to know what they are talking about has said this will be anything more than a 4 inch storm and that’s on the HIGH side.

    This is a very typical snow for KC and nothing more.

  • weatherbro

    It’s fking to be a dud. We don’t need Gary to tell us that. Just look st the data.

  • weatherbro

    Going*. Whoops lol.

    • JacobHoneycutt

      Exactly. Look at the data. Its not going to be a dud. The viewing area is in line to get 2-5″. I would say right along I-70 through the metro could 3-4″. Take time to really look at all the data. Dont just assume.

      • mukustink

        Welcome back Jacob. Where have you been?

        • JacobHoneycutt

          Thanks! I have been busy traveling the country chasing tornadoes and all sorts of severe weather. Now that we actually have something going on in KC, I figured I would join back in on the discussion and give my input lol.

  • f00dl3

    18z GFS Snowfall estimate: 3-5″ for KC metro. 4-5″ I-435 loop.

    http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays2.php3?STATIONID=EAX

    18z NAM snowfall estimate: 3-5″ for KC metro. 4-5″ downtown N&E.

    http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays2.php3?STATIONID=EAX

    They look as close as they are going to probably look.

    Still waiting to see the 00z data.

  • f00dl3

    18z GFS Snowfall estimate: 3-5″ for KC metro. 4-5″ I-435 loop.
    18z NAM snowfall estimate: 3-5″ for KC metro. 4-5″ downtown N&E.

    They look as close as they are going to probably look. GFS has come in-line with the NAM and the NAM backed off a bit from earlier.

    “http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays2.php3?STATIONID=EAX”
    “http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays2.php3?STATIONID=EAX”

    Still waiting to see the 00z data.

  • mgsports

    SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND
    MONDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE
    EXPECTED ACROSS AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF U.S. 36 HIGHWAY…WITH THE
    HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KANSAS INTO WEST CENTRAL
    MISSOURI. SOME SNOW MAY INITIALLY MELT ON WARM PAVEMENT MONDAY
    AFTERNOON BEFORE RAPIDLY FREEZING AFTER DARK MONDAY EVENING. THIS MAY
    CREATE ESPECIALLY HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT
    PARTICULARLY ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS.

  • stjoeattorney

    …..5-8 INCHER ….. a sleeper event, it’s not nice to ppick on mother nature; plus we are overdue

  • rred95

    If i am interpeting correctly gary thinks a quick 2 inches in am, and that would probably be it. But if we get another 2 inches around sunset that could wreak havoc on peoples travel considering its a big night out. but 2 more inches isnt that much if your a sensible driver. well see.

  • f00dl3

    Models do not take virga into account – precipitation lost falling into dry air and evaporating is considered part of QPF – correct?

    This being said, given the RUC’s low QPF output, is it plausible that everything that heads our way is virga and we get jack squat?

  • ChiefsFan

    Gary weather team, I’m seeing so many different things with this storm, heavy snow at first, heavy snow in evening, lulls in the snow, I don’t know what to think

  • stjoeattorney

    …….5-8 inches …….

  • Kcchamps

    “http://www.crh.noaa.gov/wxstory.php?site=sgf”

    interesting

    • Jacob Honeycutt

      Thats a little high. Wonder what they are looking at to make that high of a forecast. The storm is just not strong enough to generate that much snow. It will be shearing out as it heads towards us. 2-4″ is a good forecast for this storm along I-70.

    • kellyinkc

      that is interesting.
      “http://www.crh.noaa.gov/wxstory.php?site=top”
      Topeka is saying this.
      This could be a surprise in the amount we actually get.

    • mukustink

      Champs where have you been all day? People have been lost without you! They need your maps man!

    • Skylar

      The weather story graphics usually aren’t made to be very accurate outside the WFO region, the most one could get from that is where the higher totals should fall. It’s fun to look at though. :)

  • Adam Penney

    Lol…it seems SGF is doing a bit of wishcasting themselves ;)

  • mukustink

    It’s amazing how three NWS offices within a couple hundred miles of us can have 3 different forecasts for the amounts of snow we are going to receive.

  • mukustink

    Should be interesting to see what the new data holds when it rolls on in. I wonder if Gary will be looking over the new data in Vegas and checking in. He may be to busy to look at it. I know I would be.

  • weatherman brad

    I am watching this as I am in the Big Apple visiting my aunt for new years, we may go to times square and see the ball drop tomorrow night.

    with the leftover snow fro this system I could see some ofit when I head back home sometime next week.

    brad

  • Jacob Honeycutt

    Gary is paying close attention to the models. Trust me lol.

  • Kcchamps

    “http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/nam/00/nam_namer_033_precip_ptot.gif”

    latest NAM total precip. Not very impressive

  • mukustink

    TUSH I found Mikey. He is over at the competitors blog talking with the met over there. He (Mikey) is going with 5 inches in Liberty and he has the snow plows on stand by.

  • Adam Penney

    0z NAM continues to cut into snow totals. Only a few inches of accumulation, with a sharp cutoff especially on the south side of the city.

  • Adam Penney

    @NWSKansasCity: Winter Storm still on track for 2-4 inches of #snow for much of the region. Are you prepared? Please RT. http://t.co/cc3VutmS #mowx #kswx

  • weatherman brad

    muku, I said I am in the BIG APPLE visiting my aunt for new years. I am watching the storm for kc for tomorrow from here.

    brad

    • mukustink

      Brad I got that. It was this that I didn’t understand… “with the leftover snow fro this system I could see some ofit when I head back home sometime next week.”

  • ChiefsFan

    When is the snow suppose to start tomorrow?

  • mukustink

    Between 6-9 am

  • fire508

    Will wait for th 6z NAM. Saw somewhere on NWS where there was an issue with the 0z nam.

  • Kcchamps

    “http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/RAP/displayMapLocalDiskDateDomain.cgi?keys=rap_jet:&runtime=2012123100&plot_type=acsnw_t5sfc&fcst=18&time_inc=60&num_times=19&model=rr&ptitle=RAP%20Model%20Fields%20-%20Experimental&maxFcstLen=18&fcstStrLen=-1&domain=t5&adtfn=1″

    latest RAP(RUC) snow forecast out to 18hours

    • fire508

      Yea I think I am changing to the RAP. And I cant believe that is only for 18 hrs. The snow event might last alittle longer…

  • ChiefsFan

    What’s all that showing Kcchamps,fire508?

  • fire508

    I am not too worried with the NAM. If you notice it has a path of lower QPF in between higher. I have a real hard time believing that.

  • Todd

    Best of luck to you in Orlando George. That’s where I sit as I type this post. We fly back to STL then drive to KC tomorrow night after spending holidays with my wife’s family in Orlando. Would much rather have this weather than what we are coming home to. Nothing like watching the local news and hearing them talk about highs in the upper 50’s being a “cold day”! Gonna miss the weather, but not the massive amount of traffic and rude drivers!

  • McCabe58

    That puts me in the sweet spot down here in pleasant hill!

  • WeatherNerd

    I have been watching the RAP for the past several hours. Full scope of this thing not in range yet, but I like what I see. I wouldn’t worry too much about how the NAM and GFS may waver at this point. However, 2-3 inches with isolated 4 inch amounts is a pretty standard forecast for this area. I think this will produce that, but probably not much more.

  • McCabe58

    Question… If this might start as rain, why are the road crews out treating the roads right now? It’ll all wash away if it is rain to start..

    • mukustink

      Are you sure they are putting anything down? They would not be out pre treating roads this early. I think when they pretreat it’s more like an hour or so before precip starts to fall. You may just be seeing trucks going to staging areas or moving around.

  • WeatherNerd

    Also, it can be a mistake to just get caught up in looking at QPF totals to base the forecast on. If it were that easy, Gary would be out of a job :) As Gary as stated in the blog, the thing hinges on how much this thing can hold together in the upper levels. The more this thing shears out, the more spotty the precip is going to end up being.

  • farmingnolkes

    They might be running best juice this early

  • farmingnolkes

    Beat juice

  • Kcchamps

    “http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/gfs/00/gfs_namer_030_precip_ptot.gif”

    here is the latest GFS total precip. .25-.50″

  • McCabe58

    I actually think you’re right muku, they aren’t putting anything down on the main roads. On a side road off 50 where I work they did have salt or something down for sure though because I could see it and hear it kicking up on my truck

  • mattmaisch

    Well, not terribly surprising based upon today’s trends, but the GFS is actually showing higher snowfall totals than the NAM is at this point, probably by an inch or better. Forecast seems good at 1-4″ I believe at this juncture that someone throughout the area will receive every amount in between. Some folks may see a bit more, and some may actually see a bit less.

  • Kole Christian

    At this Juncture of all Junctures, I’m going with 3 inches for Parkville.
    Matt,
    I think 1-4 is pretty solid, this storm could do anything at this point.

  • Kcchamps

    “http://www.crh.noaa.gov/wxstory.php?site=sgf”

    • mattmaisch

      If there’s one thing I’ve noticed over the years, it’s that there is never any reason to give any credence to any maps shown from another NWS office when it comes to an area outside of their CWA. They simply don’t spend any time studying what will happen outside of their own area, therefore, the maps just don’t mean a heck of a lot.

  • weatherbro

    Whatever shows the most snow!

  • Adam Penney

    Totally agree with what Matt just said. SGF is not paid to forecast to the KC area. That’s just a stab in the dark…even if it ends up verifying.

  • ChiefsFan

    Adam–What are you thinking accumulation wise for kc metro?

  • Adam Penney

    2-3 inches should be common. Isolated 4 inch amounts.

  • McCabe58

    Isolated 5-6″

  • Adam Penney

    McCabe, going to have to deal with warm temps through noon. Melting will occur and cut down on initial accumulations.

    What have you seen that makes you think we could see amounts as high as six inches?? Will that be in the metro area??

  • Skylar

    I’m down to 35 right now from a high of 41, and if the ground warmed about freezing it wasn’t very because the snow left melted very little today. Rain/mix and melting shouldn’t really be a problem unless you like snowy roads.

  • McCabe58

    Lol just a guess, but I would not be surprised if that did happen. Maybe not 6″ but I could see someone getting 5

  • McCabe58

    With snow it’s hard to tell how strong the bands will be. It could say light snow, but there are always moderate to heavy patches and that could be the difference in a inch or so. We’ll just have to see tomorrow. I know my hopes will probably be let down, but I’m just excited to see some snow during the daytime

  • Adam Penney

    Agree with you there. Always fun to see the snow fall!

  • lots of snow showing up on radar, west of Topeka..anyone else watching it?

  • Skylar

    Updated AFD from Pleasant Hill is calling for the lower end of the 2-4″ because they think there will be more compact dendrites. Anyone else seeing this? It was written in by a sub forecaster and the last few times they’ve been used they haven’t be very accurate. It would probably make 4-5″ possibility in KC less likely.

  • McCabe58

    What does that even mean?…

  • Adam Penney

    Small flakes..

  • fire508

    According to the AFD they are expecting 2-3 inches from 12z-18z and another inch tomorrow night when the 2nd impulse comes through. They also say that there will be a break in snow between 1st and 2nd impulse.

  • McCabe58

    It is what it is, as long as the ground gets white ill be happy

  • OlatheMatt

    Check out the radar. Its quite alive.

  • McCabe58

    Nothin in 2 hours? What’s the rap showing?

  • trichjayhawks

    First round looks like its going south east of us…

  • McCabe58

    Hawks wasn’t supposed to start until 6am at the earliest anyways.. Alot of that could be virga at this point

  • McCabe58

    Sweet… KC getting split by everything like usual. There has to be something to this…

  • Major Dryslot

    Just as I planned.

  • teamster83

    WELL WELL look at this Kc is wishboned split HAHAHAHHAHAHAH no wonder this town sucks chiefs and now the weather.

  • rred95

    small weak system, had to take perfect snow track for us to get it. I can see us getting missed. Not suprising. It takes a monster regional storm for kc to ever get decent snow

  • I was just outside counting my acorns…Boy my nuts are cold….BRRRRRR

  • Greenstein

    Well, looks like the weakening of the storm will win out. I realize we’re still in a drought but we could really use the moisture. The kids were hoping to do some sledding but I’m not sure that’s going to happen.

  • Freeze Miser

    No snow yet in east Indpendence!

  • dlphg9

    Snowing down here in Appleton City.

  • Skylar

    I don’t understand why people are giving up before it’s even started. Just because we’re not getting 6-10″, that doesn’t mean it’s a bust. There was once a time where 2-4″ with slightly higher amounts possible would’ve been warmly received, and it’s probably the best amount of snow one could hope for. It nearly covers up the grass so it looks like a lot, but it doesn’t make the roads ridiculous since it isn’t that much.

    • hippygoth

      I think the biggest deal is purely down to uncertainty with the storm, many people, many different forecasts. I’ve seen and read anything from snow starting at 5am, to snow starting at 9am, and then a difference of a non event and an event of biblical proportions. :)

      Although it’ll probably be done by tomorrow, I have a 5k run at 10am, would be pretty cool to do the run in the snow. :)

      H.

  • hippygoth

    Thought there would be a new post by now. Oh well.

    Here in Lenexa, it’s cloudy and dry, and feels pretty nice out.

    H.

  • Overbrook

    Snowing here near Overbrook (SW of Lawrence) for the past 15 minutes or so.

  • grassmankc

    Just starting to see snowflakes with a temperature of 35 degrees here in Greenwood MO.

  • SouthOlatheGraham

    Snow just started coming down in SW olathe.

  • The 12z NAM has .5-1.5 inches of snow for K.C. metro

  • weatherfreaker

    I agree with you Skylar…if you look on the radar, it is clearly coming even though it may not be a massive snowstorm…there will definitely be something. No snow yet here on Lee’s Summit/KC border. Also, can someone explain…is the second round we are supposed to get this afternoon or evening part of what is already visible in the SW coming up on the radar, or is it something that will still form later? I am having a hard time seeing where we get a second wave of snow later tonight because it looks like this main line will move through and then there is nothing behind it???

    • WeatherNerd

      The way I see it on latest data, the second wave has a high probability of falling apart and not amounting to much. Hope that is not true, but if it is then this round is going to be about all that we get in accumulation. Just have to wait and see…

  • f00dl3

    I say it’s time for a new blog! This one has grown a bit outdated!

  • Moisture at mid levels(400-600mb)is to dry …Very little snow for the metro… :(

  • weatherfly

    snowing now in S. OP

  • Emaw

    Nothing yet in north Olathe . 1″ or less looks like a good bet.

  • blizzard68

    Looks like the tongy split for Leavenworth again

  • k10k7

    Snowing in NW Olathe, this is the first time in awhile that the snow is gently falling from the sky vs. sideways in your face.

  • Skylar

    Wow, this snow is amazing! Big fat flakes falling and sticking to everything they touch! We haven’t had this in a while. :) We already have a heavy dusting by JoCo Executive, and it started only 20 minutes ago.

  • f00dl3

    Looking at the Wichita radar, a nice band setting up for the metro this morning. Probably up to 2.5″ this AM.

  • weatherfreaker

    Just started snowing in Lee’s Summit!

  • beckysma

    Snowing pretty good in Mission.

  • Overbrook

    That’s how it’s falling here too. Started as fewer, large flakes but changed over to heavier, smaller flakes about 20 minutes ago. Over 1/4″ on everything at this point so maybe coming at a rate of around 1/2″/hour…

  • hippygoth

    Just started in Lenexa. Big flakes, sticking to cars, but not to roads/sidewalks yet.

    H.

  • grassmankc

    Deck is already covered after 30 minutes.

  • Freeze Miser

    First flakes out in east Independence! I’m out in the woods with my dog having a little fire. Perfect!

  • madnick44

    What a great way to start the day. Kaluha in my coffee , fire in the fire pit, Pork sholder on the smoker and snow falling from the sky….Maybe I’ll put some Christmas music on the outdoor speakers….

  • f00dl3

    After about 10 mins here in Lenexa already have a dusting on the grass and driveways and rooftops. At this rate, given snow extends along I-35 SW to Enid, OK – we should get 1.5-2.5″ from this first round.