Good afternoon bloggers,
1 to 4 inches of snow are expected on New Year’s Eve
Snow is likely by New Year’s Eve morning, but there are a few concerns I have.
- The storm will be shearing apart/weakening as it approaches and passes Kansas City by New Year’s Day. We will have a weakening system.
- There will likely be two waves of snow, the first in the morning may be the strongest and most aggressive, but it should move fairly fast. 1 to 2 inches are possible in this lead band
- The main wave will move through Monday night, but it will be losing it’s punch
We have high confidence that it will snow and accumulate. If this were a strengthening storm it would have potential to produce higher snowfall totals, but it is not a strengthening storm. This storm will be weakening and stretching out as it moves by. This would limit most of the snowfall accumulations to the first wave of energy that is due in early in the morning.
Here is a look at the new NAM model that just came out:
This may be a bit aggressive on precipitation amounts so let’s see how this comes together later tonight. There will likely be a first wave, somewhat of a break and then the main storm will approach as it stretches out and weakens. This NAM model shows that there will likely be a small area that receives some morning heavy snow and it looks like it will be near Kansas City. This would be a fast moving band of snow so I think that the NAM’s prediction of 0.25″+ liquid is a bit high. Here is a map George posted this morning:
As you can see above, by 2 PM the first wave of snow is long gone with the second wave of snow approaching. This second wave will be associated with the shearing out upper level wave as you can see on this next forecast map valid at 9 PM Monday evening. Since the wave will be stretching/shearing as it moves across Kansas the lifting that will cause bands of snow to form will end and we will likely be left with rather light snow during the evening limiting any additional accumulations. Here is the shearing wave:
Let us know what you think as we share in this weather experience. Today is George Waldenbergers last day at 41 Action News. What a last forecast he will be making tonight. Good luck to George as he heads off to Orlando Florida. This will likely be the last snow he has to predict for a very long time!
Have a great evening! We will keep you updated on 41 Action News.