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Summer Severe Weather Risks North Or South?

Good morning bloggers,

Each day in the blog we will be going over the national picture, the Kansas City picture, and when appropriate in helping with the forecast dicsussion we will discuss the cycling weather pattern.  The pattern cycling through later this week is definitely one of those appropriate times as the part of the pattern that created the conditions for the March 6th severe weather outbreak that targeted Kansas City is returning this week, but it may target areas just north of KC. As it appears the risk may be a bit farther north, we are not clear on the exact set up yet.  We will discuss this a bit later, but let us begin with the national picture today.

National Weather Picture:

It is going to be a rather calm Tuesday around the United States. We can call this the “calm before the storm”.  There is a trend on the models to have this Wednesday-Thursday severe weather set-up be a bit farther north.

A quiet Tuesday:

Screen Shot 2017-06-27 at 6.41.12 AM

This first map above shows the watches, warnings, and advisories for today. There are fire advisories over parts of the west, but most of the nation is advisory free today. This will begin to change on Wednesday.

Wednesday’s Set-Up:

We must remember that it is now summer and it is not spring, but there can still be spring-like severe weather set-ups. One of these storm systems capable of producing some spring-like severe weather risks is going to track into the plains between Wednesday and Friday moving off to the east by Friday afternoon and night.

day2otlk_0600

The severe weather risk for Wednesday seems to be targeting Iowa.

Severe Weather Risk Thursday:

The set-up for Thursday really has our attention. There has been a trend farther north on this data as well.  The SPC has not budged from their risk for Thursday as you can see below:

day3otlk_0730

One thing that should always be tracked is the latest data. So many meteorologists throw out the off runs of the models and I strongly suggest not doing such a thing. If those models begin a trend, then it should be strongly considered and weighed into the forecast.  The off runs of last nights models trended farther north with both Wednesday and Thursday’s weather set-ups.

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This trend that I am opening up this morning is for the surface set-up to be farther north. This map above shows the overnight trend of the system being just a bit farther north. This is still quite an impressive surface set up and it is responding to the storm system tracking aloft near the USA/Canada border.  Extreme humidity, very rich Gulf of Mexico air, will be drawn north on strong south winds by Thursday.  This will be the high levels of fuel necessary for some excessive rain and the severe weather potential.

The rainfall forecasts have been all over the place between now and Friday. Here is one for eastern Kansas and western Missouri:

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Let’s see how the models trend today.

Kansas City:

The weather in Kansas City has featured some rain in the past 24 hours, but not for everyone. KCI Airport had just under 0.50″, while other areas barely had one drop.

Kansas City Weather Time-Line:

  • Today: Gorgeous! A beautiful day with increasing humidity. It is back to summer time with a high of 83° with south winds returning around 5-15 mph.
  • Tonight: Staying dry with a chance of thunderstorms north of KC by morning. Low:  69°
  • Wednesday:  Partly cloudy with the best chance of thunderstorms near the Iowa and Nebraska borders. We will have to monitor closely for a morning complex of thunderstorms tracking our way.  High:  89°
  • Thursday:  Partly cloudy with Thunderstorms most likely near the Iowa and Nebraska borders.  Severe thunderstorms are possible.  High:  90°

Have a great day and thank you for participating in this weather experience. The comments will be open in a few days. You can join in on the conversation now at Weather2020.com.

Gary

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