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Summer Settles In Stronger

Good Sunday morning bloggers,

Summer is settling in a bit stronger. We will be discussing the jet stream strength in the next blog or two as the jet stream is about to reach its weakest average strength and farthest north position as we move into early August. Yesterday, Jeff clearly established and showed that the weather pattern is continuing to cycle regularly in the range that set up in October and November last year. We are in the fifth cycle currently.

We have a computer model that is being tested with some good results. Just like any model, there are ways to attempt improving the accuracy. We have made adjustments to the Cycling Pattern Model over the past few months adding in some additional factors.  The model should get “smarter” as we move through the cycles and blend cycles together.  The first forecast issued by our model for July came out as we had completed the first cycle and began moving into second cycle. This is the February projection (the middle forecast graph), a 5-month forecast. The first map below is our April update where we blended in two cycles. And, the third map is the forecast updated with some new factors added in, including the blending of all of the cycles:

July Heat Forecast1

July Forecast Made Janu

Kansas City July Forecast Cycle 4

This third forecast, the most recent one, shows the blue line (climatology, the averages), the orange line (the Cycling Pattern Forecast projection), and the green line which shows the verification.  Kansas City has now gone over 1,400 straight days without an official high of 100 degrees or higher (September 8, 2013).  We will be making a run at this elusive 100 degrees later this week and possibly again before the end of the month. There will also be one run at 100 degrees in August as well.

The chance of 100 degrees later this week:

1

2

These two forecast maps from the GFS show that the “same” pattern continues to produce similar results. High humidity up the Kansas/Missouri state line has helped keep temperatures below 100 degrees near KC. It has hit over 100 degrees twice in the last week over St. Louis and west of Topeka, but not in the corridor near KC.  The top map shows low 90s Wednesday, and then close to 100 degrees by Friday.  It appears it may just fall short again, but it may be very close later this week.

There is also a weak upper level disturbance coming east across Kansas this week, but the chance of rain appears it will stay low. Have a great Sunday and thank you for sharing in this weather experience.

Gary

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