Good morning bloggers,
I am asking you to participate in the summer forecast which I will discuss near the end of today’s blog entry. Our summer forecast will come out on Monday night.
Texas tornadoes are the lead weather story this morning. Severe thunderstorms erupted all around Dallas last night and there were a few tornadoes. Granbury, TX was hit particularly hard and there are five or six fatalities. They new the tornado was coming, but likely didn’t expect it to be as strong as it was. What has been a rather quiet severe weather season suddenly became deadly last night.
The severe weather risk will be increasing this weekend and Kansas City is one of the possible targets. Here is a map of one of many surface solutions for Sunday and this solution may be too slow:
Most of the models have a faster surface solution in response to a stronger and negatively tilted upper level wave of energy ejecting out into the plains:
The wave of energy coming out on Sunday looks to be strong enough to force the surface features farther east, which would increase our severe weather risk. Now, let’s remember that this set up is still three days away. I would like to spend a bit more time analyzing the parameters before super analyzing the potential scenarios, if that makes sense. We will look into this on 41 Action News today and tonight. Kansas City has missed almost every severe weather situation and set-up for over a year now, so let’s pay close attention.
The Storm Prediction Center has placed these risks over our area for Sunday/Monday. “Medium-Range models remain in broad/general agreement that substantial severe weather potential exists days 4-5, Sunday 5-19, and Monday 5-20, and possibly into day 6. However, rather pronounced differences in timing/location of short-wave features casts substantial uncertainty regarding details of the upcoming scenario”
I agree with what they are saying, and this is why we should wait another day or so until we spend a lot of time analyzing specific timing and details. At the same time we will likely be turning on one of our red lights on our 7 day severe weather risk graphic tonight, unless the uncertainties continue.
What do you think the summer will be like? Answer these questions and add commentary if you would like:
- Will we have below, near, or above average temperatures in June, July, and August?
- Will we have below, near, or above average rainfall in June, July, and August?
- What are the chances of a major heat wave? Do you think we will have one?
Please let me know what your thoughts are and I will write up a summary of the bloggers summer forecast thoughts. Thank you for participating and for spending a few minutes reading the Action Weather Blog.