Good Thursday morning,
Moore, OK was hit three days ago. It seems like a week ago already and they are having heavy thunderstorms this morning across central Oklahoma. It has been a very wet week south and southeast of Kansas City and next week is starting to look stormier as the jet stream dips farther south and moves out into the plains. I will discuss next week’s severe weather potential below. But, first let’s talk about the summer forecast and the set-up for the beginning of the holiday weekend.
Weather Forecast Timeline:
- Today: Periods of clouds with breaks of sunshine. North winds 5-15 mph. High: 68°
- Tonight: Cool with a low in the 40s by sunrise
- Friday: Winds shifting to the southeast at 5-15 mph. High: 71°
- Holiday weekend: A few thunderstorms are possible at times, but most of the weekend will be dry. Any thunderstorms shouldn’t last more than an hour. Highs reaching the 80s by Memorial Day. We will have more details on this holiday forecast on 41 Action News
On Monday as we were finding out about the horrific Moore, OK EF-5 tornado we showed our summer forecast on 41 Action News at 6 PM. Here is the summer forecast: Summer Forecast Link. We are forecasting near average rainfall this summer with means 8.5″ more rain than last summer. Let me know if you have any questions.
We will have a cool north breeze today as high pressure builds in. There is a good chance that we will drop into the 40s Friday morning before the warming trend begins. By later Friday into Saturday south winds will return and moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will begin surging north increasing our humidity during the holiday weekend.
The severe weather risk increases next week as the flow aloft strengthens and a split develops in the jet stream near the west coast:
The flow aloft is forecast to split and amplify near the west coast and over the western states during the next five days. We will be near a ridge aloft this holiday weekend and this means that the winds will not be strong enough in the upper levels of the atmosphere for any significant severe weather in our area. But, by early next week the western plains will likely have good severe weather scenarios as the southern branch of the jet stream moves out over an increasingly moist and unstable air mass. It will take many days for this storm to slowly move out into our region and this will mean three or four good chase days for the storm chasers.
And, here is the surface forecast valid Monday evening:
Kansas City will be moving underneath a ridge aloft, but it should be a “dirty” ridge with showers and thunderstorms around with weak outflow boundaries. The energy will be moving our way from the western states by early next week and this is when the severe weather risk will be increasing.
Have a great Thursday and thank you for spending a few minutes reading the Action Weather Blog.