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Summer Forecast & Severe Weather Potential Next Week

Good Thursday morning,

Moore, OK was hit three days ago. It seems like a week ago already and they are having heavy thunderstorms this morning across central Oklahoma.  It has been a very wet week south and southeast of Kansas City and next week is starting to look stormier as the jet stream dips farther south and moves out into the plains.  I will discuss next week’s severe weather potential below.  But, first let’s talk about the summer forecast and the set-up for the beginning of the holiday weekend.

Weather Forecast Timeline:

  • Today:  Periods of clouds with breaks of sunshine. North winds 5-15 mph. High:  68°
  • Tonight:  Cool with a low in the 40s by sunrise
  • Friday:  Winds shifting to the southeast at 5-15 mph.  High:  71°
  • Holiday weekend:  A few thunderstorms are possible at times, but most of the weekend will be dry.  Any thunderstorms shouldn’t last more than an hour.  Highs reaching the 80s by Memorial Day.  We will have more details on this holiday forecast on 41 Action News

On Monday as we were finding out about the horrific Moore, OK EF-5 tornado we showed our summer forecast on 41 Action News at 6 PM.  Here is the summer forecast:  Summer Forecast Link.  We are forecasting near average rainfall this summer with means 8.5″ more rain than last summer. Let me know if you have any questions.

1

We will have a cool north breeze today as high pressure builds in. There is a good chance that we will drop into the 40s Friday morning before the warming trend begins. By later Friday into Saturday south winds will return and moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will begin surging north increasing our humidity during the holiday weekend.

2

The severe weather risk increases next week as the flow aloft strengthens and a split develops in the jet stream near the west coast:

1

The flow aloft is forecast to split and amplify near the west coast and over the western states during the next five days.  We will be near a ridge aloft this holiday weekend and this means that the winds will not be strong enough in the upper levels of the atmosphere for any significant severe weather in our area. But, by early next week the western plains will likely have good severe weather scenarios as the southern branch of the jet stream moves out over an increasingly moist and unstable air mass.  It will take many days for this storm to slowly move out into our region and this will mean three or four good chase days for the storm chasers.

And, here is the surface forecast valid Monday evening:

2

 

Kansas City will be moving underneath a ridge aloft, but it should be a “dirty” ridge with showers and thunderstorms around with weak outflow boundaries. The energy will be moving our way from the western states by early next week and this is when the severe weather risk will be increasing.

Have a great Thursday and thank you for spending a few minutes reading the Action Weather Blog.

Gary

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19 comments to Summer Forecast & Severe Weather Potential Next Week

  • Drought Miser

    Gary,
    Why does it seem like the worst of the severe weather either hits just north of the metro or just east? Is there some type of upper air pattern split that happens over K.C.? Huge tornado over the race track around 2000 and several spin ups through Freeman Mo. And Harrisonville… and a touchdown in Lawrence …just luck of the draw?

  • Fred Souder

    Is blog sucking comments into the void?

  • Fred Souder

    (sigh). Tried 3 times to post comment. No dice. What word am I using that it getting my posts quarantined??

  • Emaw

    Dude do you want severe weather here?

  • PILOT MISER

    Tonganoxie knotch lol. That’s our protective geographic terrain feature that usually protects the metro.

  • Kansa

    What types of severe weather should we expect in our area and on what days?

  • Skylar

    How many of you remember this? :)

    “http://i.imgur.com/o9gTWnz.png”

  • John Sickels

    I am confused about the chances for severe weather next week. Topeka NWS continues to mention the possibility in their outlooks and seems rather confident that some will occur, but Kansas City/Pleasant Hill NWS is downplaying the chances just as strongly as Topeka is mentioning them. Why the wide difference in model interpretation? What does EAX know that TOP doesn’t, or vice versa?

    • The NWS may be leaning way too much into the ECMWF solution. Not sure, but there will be some severe weather in the plains next week. Now, will there be severe weather in KC? This is why the NWS in PH is likely hesitant.

      Gary

  • Theo

    Well, well, well. Over an inch behind normal on precip. year-to-date at KCI. Drought’s over. Right. Been telling you for 6 months. Drought ain’t over. All the Dobbers, Purple Hogs and Mower boys in the world can’t change the facts. Yes, FACTS Mikey. You got owned on the furry mammal weather blog and you’re still owned here! Maybe the Purple Hog can be your buddy, instead of being your blog bully double.

    • ksloco

      do you really miss mower so bad .your willing to chase his ghost? You won! he is gone! maybe you can get others to go too! Have the blog all to yourself. You can then enjoy your mental masturbation all by yourself. Like it should be.

  • mukustink

    Gary why have all your seasonal forecast been off lately? What are you missing?

  • I love this blog. Even on slow days….

    Ease up people or change the channel. I love the mettle the Mets have on this station for not responding to some of these blog comments. It’s hard to fight off trolls but it’s still worth checking in.

    Any chance the blog could just get the up/down vote thumbs going? Enough down votes and comments get deleted along with direct replies to that post. We’ll moderate ourselves so you don’t have to Gary.

    This is a freakin’ weather blog not a testicle show and tell…

    I’m not talking about constructive critics of the mets….. I’m talking about A-holes that suck up bandwidth from the rest of us curious folks out there.