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Stuck In A Rut

Good morning Bloggers,

  • Definition of Rut:  A habit or pattern of behavior that has become dull and unproductive but is hard to change

Would you agree that the weather pattern is stuck in a rut?  It is dry, getting drier. It is hot, getting hotter. The pattern is boring, and getting  more boring. And, summer is ending in two weeks and there is no sign of fall yet.  Take a look at this weekend’s upper level flow:

1

An anticyclone, or ridge aloft will be centered overhead this weekend. This is likely going to help keep rain chances quite low despite a weak cold front stalling in northern Missouri Sunday morning.  Here is the surface forecast map valid at 10 AM Sunday:

2

Thunderstorms will be likely over northeastern Missouri Sunday morning and there is a slight chance that an outflow boundary could move west and southwest to near Kansas City early Sunday, which would increase our chance of rain to 20%.  If there is no outflow boundary, then the temperatures would likely sore into the upper 90s near by, and this is one of the bigger forecast challenges in the short term.  And, this is the only chance of thunderstorms we see in the next few days.  Let’s see how this sets up over the weekend.

In the mean time the Royals have a huge series with the Detroit Tigers beginning tonight, and the Chiefs play Jacksonville in Florida Sunday.  At least we have some huge sports distractions to take us away from this rut.

Gary

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15 comments to Stuck In A Rut

  • Troll Miser

    Man, KC just can’t shake the anti-cyclone’s fatal attraction to us. Trapped under a damn dome again! I’m ready for the snowflake competition now and over this heat.

    “Definition of Rut: A habit or pattern of behavior that has become dull and unproductive but is hard to change” – also accurately describes a few of the people who consistently comment on this blog.

    RCJH and Happy Red Friday to all!

  • frigate

    Between last year and this…can next year’s pattern be any worse??? Hate to think!!!! We know eventually these 90 temps have to end, but when? Looks like it might be Halloween at this point! Go Royals and Chiefs!!!

  • sedsinkc

    I hope this recent love the anticyclone has for the nation’s midsection is not a preview of next summer’s pattern, because this is a lot like last summer’s pattern. For most of the summer, the anticyclone was kept at bay well to the west and southwest of KC. In late August this suddenly changed and since then it has been camped out closer to us or right over us. But since we’re still transitioning from last winter’s pattern to next winter’s pattern there’s hope this phase we’ve been in for the past 2+ weeks is just a symptom of the transition and the final pattern will be different.

    • sedsinkc

      Should have written, “For most of THIS summer, the anticyclone…”

      • f00dl3

        LRC thrown aside, we underwent a major weather pattern shift last August, if you attribute it to Isaac or not – August 2012 was the first month not 6 degrees above average in nearly a year! 2011 late July into August saw a significant pattern change as well as we went from a rainy pattern into a sweltering hot last week of July/early August. And here we go again – another significant weather pattern change.

        I stand by my theory that the upper level pattern sets up in late July/early August when the jet stream is at it’s weakest, and the lower level surface moisture pattern establishes it’s self in late Jan/early February when the jet stream is at it’s strongest.

        While we have dried out, we still have a good abundant low level moisture flow over us. Dew points are still in the 60s.

        • sedsinkc

          Some moisture available (DP’s generally 60 to 65 in this area, 55 to 60 to E and NE), problem is lack of trigger/proximity of upper high and sinking air/warm temps aloft that puts a lid on convection.

  • sedsinkc

    It seems a bit odd to have heat advisories posted in North and South Dakota this late in the summer.

  • yewtrees

    Updated on September 5th, 2013

    A long stretch of hot and dry weather during the past few weeks has allowed drought conditions to intensify across much of northern Missouri. Severe drought (D2) has expanded in areas that have received little to no rain during the month of august and first week of September. In fact, some locations experienced their driest month of august on record.

    “http://www.crh.noaa.gov/eax/?n=drought”

  • yewtrees

    Gary, you indicated “Bigger changes will be likely in 7-10 days”. Is it going to happen?

  • Skylar

    Our seasons have been behind all year long. Winter lasted late (snow in May), so spring arrived later, and now summer is saying around longer than normal.

  • luvsno

    Where is Gary ?? Jeff is on air now. Wonder if he had to go back to CA…hope not. Hope his mom is still improving.

  • f00dl3

    Global warming is causing the weather extremes yet global warming is supposed to cause the seasons to “blend in” and give us a more constant temperature year round. Ok!

  • trinlivco

    Its always 7 to 10 days before a change. I dont belive it. Our rut of a weather pattern really sucks big time. The only good weather is rain and lots of it, nothing else matters. I hate this damn hot dry weather!!! TR

  • Farmgirl

    I’m really tired of cold fronts not quite making it here and causing frontal compression with high humidity. Along with the rain heading east again.

    Sheep are in full fleece now and this hot heat with high humidity is causing lots of stress in our livestock. :(