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Strongest Cold Front Of The Season!

Watch Let’s Ask America Tonight at 6:30 PM on KSHB-TV!

Good morning bloggers,

The strongest cold front of the season is approaching, and I think we can finally call this an Arctic Blast!  Here is the RUC temperature forecast valid at 10 PM tonight. As you can see, the below zero air is forcing it’s way into our viewing area overnight.  It has been almost two years since the last time KCI Airport was below zero:

ruc17hr_sfc_temp

The cold front will move through by noon with temperatures dropping and the wind increasing from the north. By this evening the wind chill factor will be dropping to below zero. Bundle up today!  A warming trend will begin tomorrow afternoon, but we will have some ups and downs into next week as a storm approaches by the middle or end of next week.

Lets ask america

I will be competing tonight against three other meteorologists on “Let’s Ask America” at 6:30 PM. Stormy and Breezy will be making a guest appearance as well. The format is like Family Feud type questions such as, “100 people in San Diego were surveyed, what city did they say had the worst weather?  Chicago, Boston, or Houston”.  And, then you make your choice and explain why you chose it. If you are correct then you earn a dollar amount. The last person left plays for five times their money.  Watch tonight to see how I did. My only hope was to not be the first person out.

Have a great day!  And, thank you for spending a few minutes on the Action Weather Blog.  Let us know if you have any comments of questions.

Gary

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46 comments to Strongest Cold Front Of The Season!

  • AFPILOTWXJUNKIE

    Gary, Since the midway point of the LRC was three days late do you expect the next event to be 3 to 4 days late as well so instead of six through 10 February more like 10 through 15 February?

  • Good luck tonight Gary! And bring on next weeks storm.

  • frigate

    Only in KC, can we have within 4-5 days, see weather go from 75 to below zero, with rain and snow mixed in the middle!!!

    • Jerry

      Actually, it’s happening throughout the country this week…Here Monday>Wednesday, Wisconsin and Michigan yesterday/today, and now even Virginia today.

    • yewtrees

      There is an interesting article about the weather extremes this week across the US on CNN today.

      “http://www.cnn.com/2013/01/31/us/weather-extremes/index.html?hpt=hp_t1″

  • Theo

    Unless there’s 2 inches or more snow cover at KCI tonight, it won’t go below zero. Gary, you can call it whatever you want, because it’s your blog, but “arctic blast”? For 2 days? It will be right back above average again by Saturday.

    With the exception of some Alberta Clippers (which historically don’t produce much snow here) I don’t see any storms the next 2 weeks. That’s mid-February. 2-4 snow events will be tough. Maybe March will dump a couple of big wet snows?

    • HeatMiser

      Theo, Gary says he sees a storm for the middle of next week.

      • Theo

        Where? I see a little clipper go north of us on the 8th (next Friday) and maybe storm around here the 12th (week from Tuesday).

      • Theo

        Actually, the quote is, “a storm approaches by the middle or end of next week”.

        That’s vague, as always. Gives him a chance to be correct under a number of scenarios.

        Approaches from where? Alberta? California? Texas?
        Is it a wave? Cutoff low? Clipper? WAA event?

        The LRC should be able to tell that months in advance, let alone a week.

        • Dobber

          Get a grip theo. you and and weatherman kumke or however he spells it, have been spewing massive amounts of negativity, sarcasm and hatefulness from your keyboards as of late! Take a step back….. Don’t jump

          • Theo

            Don’t raise your voice, Dobber, when you should be reinforcing your argument.

            Where is the negativity, sarcasm and hatefulness exactly?

          • Theo

            Dobber? Dobber?

            Bueller? Bueller?

            • Dobber

              Sorry theo…. I was working couldn’t respond back right away. My voice wasn’t raised at all. What do you do for a living?

              • Theo

                It’s not meteorology. It’s not golf. That’s as much as I’ll say. What I do for a living has no bearing on this blog. Doesn’t matter if you dig ditches or run a Fortune 500 company. Should be able to blog your opinion, whether some people like the delivery or not.

        • AFPILOTWXJUNKIE

          Theo,

          Not taking any side here actually. But could Gary be referring to the forecast in the LRC that says the week of 6-10 February being the stormiest in our area? I too wish vaguity would be gone from the way most people communicate, just state an opinion stick it out there and see if your best educated insightful thought works or doesn’t.

          I think our next storm will be the night of the 10th into the morning of the 11th. Here is why I think that right now. The midway point of the last LRC should have been the 24-26th of January. However the last system was 4 days late from the midpoint. Based on the LRC I think it is too macro to determine precise timeframe for next storm cycle, but it could be a guage to narrow down the timeframe. Gary should look at different data points throughout the next cycle to narrow down timeframes. Hey a 25 day forecast is still better than a 10 day that changes often. I am collecting my own data points over the past two cycles and I can see a pattern where variables change during the cycle that cause the timeframe to shift left or right by a few days.

          I think we should see the LRC as a tool, not the answer in developing more refined forecasts. If we look at it this way then as a tool, then it is easier to accept. Every tool serves a purpose, now when we can find the “swiss army knife” for weather forecasting then I think we may just become a little too bored with weather due to its predictability.

          I like what you do on here as far as challenging people to think, observe, internalize, and debate. Hoping this is your intent even if your delivery is sometimes, less than polished.

          • Theo

            I’m sure my delivery is grating sometimes. I deliver my thoughts in a no-BS format. That way they can’t be construed more than 1 way. I can’t control who gets “offended” and who doesn’t. That is in the reception, not the delivery. People will “feel” whatever they want.

            It’s a blog, so I try to cut through the BS, which 75% or more is on a blog. Those that want to engage, please do. Those that want to cry about having their feelings hurt should just skip over the comments.

            • RickMckc

              Theo, I have to disagree with your premise about delivery/reception. Delivery matters. It does take a little more effort to graciously make a precise, clear and contrary point but, for most people, it makes a big difference in the reception.

              You obviously have a lot of knowledge of the subject matter of this blog. I especially appreciate the posts you make which are not critical of others who have less-informed or less-reasoned opinions.

              Peace

              • Rock Hardon

                Theo,

                Another classic example of the preference of style (if you stoop so low as to call it that) over substance. A rather common theme amongst those thatare not capable of supporting/defending their positions with facts. Play the “I am sen fragile,petite, and sensitive and anything relating to facts that I don’t like offends me so” Someone needs to teach these people that getting offended is the natural consequence of waking up in the morning. As hard as it is to fathom why anyone would want to offend you, it is going to happen. Crying and whining won’t change that. And this whole concept of online protocals is ludicrous. Caps cannot mean shouting in a non auditory environment, respect is not an entitlement, and people have the rights to their opinions even if you do not agree to them. Reminds me of another old Chinese Proverb: “Conformity is the last refuge of the unimaginative while rules and boundaries represent security for the timid and meek.

  • JohnNCWX

    One of the benefits of the KC area Theo is that it only takes one wet storm to verify a forecast for the entire month. Even if the next month is completely benign, one storm will likely come together and produce enough qpf to give a nice snowfall AND satisfy average precipitation.

    • Theo

      Verify what forecast? One wet storm certainly doesn’t verify any forecast of Gary’s, unless it dumps 10 inches of snow (so his snow total for the season is correct). What “monthly” forecast are you referring to?

      He has been prognosticating for 2 months about 2-4 snows in February. I threw my BS flag on it a month ago and have been very consistent in asking, specifically, when will these snow storms happen? The LRC should be able to (generally-within 2-3 days of each event) tell us dates.

  • sedsinkc

    We know most of metro KC has had above average precip for January thanks to this week’s wet storm, but “officially” it’s going to go into the records as the 10th consecutive below avg precipitation month at KCI (unless it snows a half inch or more today). Closest to average KCI has been for a month, only .04 inches below avg for January, since the drought began.

  • Theo

    In summation:

    If you don’t like my blog posts, skip over them.

    Have a quality day.

    P.S.: Dave, good day to have lessons inside!

    • JohnP

      Why should I skip your posts? You claim that you do not post BS and you state your opinion.

      Well here is mine: you are rude, obnoxious, small minded, and venomous. Additionally you are more often wrong than correct and you consistently demonstrate an arrogant ignorance about weather and deep hatred towards Gary.

      You want to be blunt – here is blunt for you, I will not be ignoring your posts I will be calling on your BS. We will both be banned from the blog and people will remember me as the guy that got rid of you.

      All the best

      John

    • Dobber

      Summation is a big word for rubes theo.

      • Rock Hardon

        Theo

        You know how excitable these “girls” get when you call out the subject of their cyber fantasy man crush. It reminds me of my 14 year old daugher when she swore she would marry this boy from another school until she met him and found he had the intellectual substance of a moist paper towel. See the similarities? Keep doing what you are doing and remember that the smallest of minds will always deny and criticize what they cannot comprehend

  • cws9

    Well, I’ll throw a prediction out there. This is the last major cold blast of the season so you cold weather folks better enjoy it. 50′s and above for the next 2 weeks with a very quiet pattern. We should get a decent rain on Feb. 11th but then nothing after that but more mild temps. March may come in like a Lion though.

  • McCabe58

    I hardly believe that cw, but thanks for your guess at the long range forecast.

  • rred95

    March is such a wild card in reguards to winter weather. Not much cold air but more moisture available, if the two can come together one time we could get a huge snowfall. ie around march 20th is our all time biggest snowstorm 20 inches or something.

  • AFPILOTWXJUNKIE

    I say snow on the 11th of Feb. also say the coldest it will get tonight is 4 degrees.

  • AFPILOTWXJUNKIE

    “http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013013112&time=INSTANT&var=SRATEI&hour=252″

    Something to start watching the 10-11 Feb might be interesting

  • kellyinkc

    Is this another “bomb” for the NE?
    “http://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/297019609142419457/photo/1″

  • restull

    This marks the 4th straight month of under 0.75 inch of precipitation for many parts of SW and SC Kansas.

  • R-Dub

    Hey snow lovers, I’m in western Michigan and let me tell you: you wish you were here. Lake effect ongoing but not really that bad here in Grand Rapids. Heading south and east tomorrow where it might be worse.

  • weather

    Great jon on that horrible show. You should’ve one. Theo is bringing it pretty hard. His/her post are a lot like mine. Why is he not banned? Why don’t you email me with an answer? I’m sure the new GM at the station may find it interesting how you pick and choose your “bloggers”. Have a great night.

  • weather

    Breaking news it’s cold outside!

  • weather

    So are you still calling for 2-4 atorms in February? It’s looking like it may be a warm above average month. What say you?

  • weather

    I’m notseeing anymore real artic outbreaks for us. I don’t see any for an extended period of time and by extended I mean 3 days or more. We may not get below 15 degrees after this blast retreats. What are your thoughts on the possibility of future artic outbreaks?

  • Rock Hardon

    Dobber,

    I hear the word Dobber is a German word for the village idiot. Care to comment?

    And in anticipating a tired,stale, and totally unoriginal attempt at one upmanship( which you are known for) about my name, I will give you a hint: It is my screen name.I am an actor. Read it very slowly and phonetically and see if you can figure it out

  • Skylar

    Since we’re in the single digits this morning, that’s almost a 70 degree temperature change in just a few days.

  • AFPILOTWXJUNKIE

    Lowest temp I recorded was 4 degrees. Don’t think we will hit that zero mark. The streak continues.

  • yewtrees

    It was 12 degrees when I left the house in OP at 5am.