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Stormy Saturday Evening Forecast

Good Friday morning bloggers,

Kansas City Weather Time-Line:

  • Today: Increasing clouds, wind, and humidity. South winds 15-20 mph.  High:  77°
  • Tonight:  A slight chance of a brief shower or thunderstorm between midnight and 6 AM.  Low:  64°
  • Saturday morning:  The Kansas City Marathon starts early Saturday and there is just a 10% chance of rain. It will be partly cloudy and windy.  South winds 10-20 mph.
  • Saturday afternoon and night:  The chance of rain increases to 50% by 5 PM.  The Rain chance then increases to 100% by 9 PM.  Thunderstorms are likely. There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms with the wind shifting to the west and northwest.  High:  77°
  • Sunday:  Rain ending by 7 AM.  The clouds will move out, and then it will be dry for the Hollywood 400.  High:  68°

Weather Summary:

A storm system is approaching aloft as you can see below. This is a trough that is moving inland over the western states now and it will head east over the plains states by Saturday afternoon:

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The energy from this storm will begin splitting Saturday. A second system will be diving south through the northern plains early next week with a cold front strengthening and moving across the plains by mid-week.  The weather pattern continues to set up for the season and we will learn a lot more in the next two weeks. We will worry about the next two weeks and the overall weather pattern later. For now, let’s take a look at the surface set up for Saturday:

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There is a risk of severe weather on Saturday:

day2probotlk_0600_any

The enhanced slight risk is showing on this probabilistic outlook from the SPC in the red and hatched areas. This is the area storm chasers are most likely going to be heading towards tomorrow.  Kansas City is in a slight risk. Last week when we had severe weather it warmed up to 85 degrees. It will not be as unstable in this set up.  Wide spread thunderstorms are likely late Saturday afternoon through Saturday night with the main risk being damaging winds and some large hail. The best chance of a tornado or two will be on that enhanced risk area. Last weekend there were no tornadoes at all despite strong conversation from the SPC in that direction. They are only hinting at a chance of a couple of tornadoes in this weekends set up.  An interesting take away from this conversation is that this is the second thunderstorm event in as many weekends. Hmmmmmmm!

Thank you for sharing in this weather experience featuring Weather2020 and the cycling weather pattern.  Go over to Weather2020, click on the blog, and join in the conversation.

Gary

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