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Still a Struggle for Rain

Good Saturday bloggers,

The weather pattern this weekend is set up for several rounds of widespread rain. This is occurring across the Plains, but not in our area. This is one odd weather pattern. One of the reasons is that the dew points are in the 50s and low 60s. This is how a drought can form. When there is a set up for rain, something always seems to go wrong. This is a weird drought as we have had many rain chances. But, every time we end up with a scattered event or much less than what is on the computer data. The drought has vanished in western Kansas, so it is not like this pattern can’t produce rain.¬† If we were dominated by an upper level high (anticyclone) our drought would make more sense.

Here is a look at the upper level flow for today. The anticyclone, “heat wave creating machine”, is located over the southwest USA as a series of disturbances are tracking southeast across the Plains. This is a wet summer pattern, and it is, but not really in our area.

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Monday will see the disturbances form into an upper low across eastern Nebraska. This low will track southeast then east and out of the region Tuesday. Again, when you see a map like this at the end of July, you expect decent amounts of rain.

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SATURDAY: We will see scattered showers and thunderstorms around as disturbances in southwest Nebraska and eastern Kansas track across the area. There is a slight chance this ends up being more of an event. We will watch it closely.

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SATURDAY NIGHT: It will be mostly dry this evening as we turn our attention to the west. A warm front will extend east then southeast across Kansas from a low in eastern Colorado. Thunderstorms will likely form near this warm front in northwest Kansas and southwest Nebraska. Whatever forms out there will head our way early Sunday morning.

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Midnight tonight there will likely be thunderstorms moving in to central Kansas. It looks mostly dry this evening across eastern Kansas and western Missouri after any scattered showers and thunderstorms from the afternoon exit.

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SUNDAY MORNING: This is when we have the best chance of widespread rain and thunderstorms. It looks like most of the rain will occur along and south of I-70. The exact track of this round of rain and thunderstorms is still up in the air. It could end up farther south or north by 50-100 miles. Sunday afternoon will see lots of clouds with just a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after the main system moves by.

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MONDAY: The small upper low will be dropping south into Missouri. This will create slow-moving, scattered showers and thunderstorms across the entire region. This will happen again Tuesday, mostly in Iowa and Missouri.

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So, as far as a rainfall forecast, we are looking at the same song and dance. Some locations will receive nothing to 0.50″, others will see 0.01″ to 2″ and a few locations may get lucky and see 2″-4″ of rain. Let’s hope your yard or farm gets the rain it needs by Tuesday, because it looks mostly dry for several days after that day.

Have a great weekend,

Jeff Penner

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