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Spring Warmth, Spring Thunderstorms?

Good Saturday morning bloggers,

The temperatures this morning are in the mid 50s, making it the warmest morning since October 24th!

The weather will be undergoing a series of changes today through Tuesday as a cold front will move through tonight, stall to the south and head back north as a warm front as it is joined by richer Gulf of Mexico moisture.  Then, a strong storm system will enter the Plains Tuesday and exit Wednesday.  These features + the Gulf moisture + the time of year will lead to chances for thunderstorms, possibly severe in the region this period.  Lets break down each day.

THIS MORNING (MAP#1):  The sky is rather interesting looking as virga showers move across the area.  That is rain falling from the clouds, but evaporating before it reaches the ground.  You can see the virga very well from this shot of our Ericsson Skyview looking west over the Sprint campus.  This would be thunderstorms if we had more moisture at the low levels.

Skyview 1

THIS AFTERNOON (MAP #2): The disturbance producing the clouds and virga will exit and the sun will come out in full force.  This will allow temperatures to zoom well into the 70s if not 80 as we will be in the warm sector of the current system.

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SUNDAY (MAP #3): The cold front that is north of I-80 today will drift through tonight then stall across southern Kansas and southern Missouri early Sunday.  This front will then lift north towards I-70 later Sunday and Sunday night as Gulf moisture increases.  This will bring a chance for scattered thunderstorms to eastern Kansas and western Missouri.  Some thunderstorms could produce pea to marble sized hail.  If you fertilize your yard today, you will be taking a risk on getting it naturally watered in tomorrow night.  Some areas may see 1″ of rain, others may see a few drops.

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MONDAY (MAP #4): The warm front will drift north as the Gulf moisture really increases, but upper level energy will be decreasing.  So, the chance for thunderstorms will go down, but low clouds and some drizzle will be likely.  The Opening day forecast looks cloudy and mild with a chance for some drizzle.  Temperatures will be in the 60s with high humidity.  Not a bad weather day.

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TUESDAY (MAP #5): This is where the forecast becomes complicated.  A strong storm system will be moving out into the Plains from the southwest USA.  This storm + the surface set up + the Gulf of Mexico moisture in place, dew points near 60, will set up the potential for severe weather.  At this time, it appears the best chance for severe werather later Tuesday will be across southern Kansas to Oklahoma.  Our area would see a period of rain and less strong thunderstorms later Tuesday night and early Wednesday as the storm moves east and goes through a transition.  This is not set in stone, and we must watch this closely.  Lets hope we get the rain and not the severe weather as we are still in a drought and the soil can dry out very quickly this time of year.

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Also, do not forget Gary, Brett and myself will be out at Nebraska Furniture Mart from 11 AM to 2 PM today.  We would love to meet you and answer your questions.  The first 20o people will receive a cool flashlight and also Stormy the Weather Dog will perform and may be she can simulate an F1 tornado!

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Have a great weekend!

Jeff Penner

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23 comments to Spring Warmth, Spring Thunderstorms?

  • Drought Miser

    Looks like a classic set up for us to get dry-slotted!

  • PILOT MISER

    Stopped by NFM. The line was 200+. Couldn’t stick around. Maybe next time.

    This wind is killing an otherwise nice day. Cloud cover sucks too

  • Skylar

    We’re going to be stuck on the low end of temperatures if cloud cover keeps redeveloping over the city.

  • PaolaWeatherNewbie

    Great blog Jeff!

    Was driving in town (Paola) today and the wind was whipping the dust around like crazy! It looked like a big dust storm had hit the area, swirling about like mini tornadoes on the main streets. Crazy fun unless you are trying to see other vehicles coming at you.

    • bob osoborne

      IKR? In Olathe the wind was blowing the car door shut as fast as I could get it open. Wicked winds.

  • Lilydale

    Sun please! Less clouds please! Lower the wind speeds please! Please and Thank you!!

  • mgsports

    http://www.weather.com/news/weather-tornado/tornado-torcon-index Today and can change Tomorrow and Monday and so on

  • Drought Miser

    Sun is out here in Merriam again but wind gusts have picked up to around 30mph

  • mgsports

    Nothing but pretty people will hit the airwaves from now on. If you are in anyway, shape or form ugly, fat, or average you won’t be hired. My point is the new KSHB anchor will be Jadiann Thompson from KPHO TV Phoenix. See you all April 22nd Kansas City. You heard it here first.

    • Hillsdale_Bruce

      The headlines don’t seem so bad when read by beautiful people. That’s why I get my weather here on 41! ba dump dump chshshshsh! (sorry guys) .

      Content, accuracy, and personality are what draw me to watch certain station(s).

    • bob osoborne

      Typical messed up report from you msg.
      “http://www.bottomlinecom.com/kshb-adds-newscast-hires-new-meteorologist/” published a month ago.

    • bob osoborne

      Don’t know how you got a name like Kylee mixed up with Jadiann.I guess we expect this from an accuweather and TWC koolaid drinker.

  • Twistersis

    I’m hoping for rain, rain and more rain! And Jeff, your blogs are so wonderfully written, illustrated and easy to follow. Sorry I couldn’t make it out to NFM to see all of you; it sounds like you had quite a crowd!

  • mgsports

    http://www.kshb.com/dpp/about_us/jadiann-thompson-joins-41-action-news-team-will-anchor-6-pm-newscasts

    Tomorrow chnace of Large Hail in the Afternoon and Evening then more bad Weather Tuesday into Wednesday but no Blizzard.

  • trinlivco

    I am sorry but you guys kill me. Really maybe a drop of rain to 1″ tomorrow nite. Why can’t you say thiers a chance of rain and leave it at that. An just because its a week end or the Royals playing in town it shouldn’t rain because of these activities. Give me a break, we need the rain I could care less on whats going on. An you should too because if this drought gets worse we all will pay. I hope it pours down!!!@!@!! TR

    • We tell it like it is. There will be scattered thunderstorm with some areas seeing 1″ and other areas seeing a few drops. I am not rooting for anything, I just tell the truth as I see it.

      Jeff

  • kellyinkc

    yes we need more rain. Last weekend we drove across 36 and the Grand River at Chillicothe is very low. One can almost walk across it.

  • OlatheMatt

    anyone else have a problem when they come to the blog it automatically loads in the mobile them? Been doing it for me since the snowstorms and blog crashing. I have cleaned the cookies out and all that and rebooted to see if it was me but it doesnt seem to be.

  • trinlivco

    Jeff, Very truthfull answer for a weatherman. Like I have said mother nature is in control and you our anyone else can just make thier best guess on whats going to happen. Thanks for being honest about it. Again I wish for lots of rain, thats my guess. TR

  • Skylar

    Jeff is right because convection rarely produces widespread uniform totals. Usually, a few places get high than what is expected and a few places get almost nothing. Still, the HPC is showing over 3″ of rain possible in the next 7 days.

    “http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif”