The 12th annual Kansas City Pet Telethon is on 38 the Spot Sunday night: Kansas City Pet Telethon
Good morning bloggers,
Here is our spring forecast from the 10 PM newscast on 41 Action News:
The severe weather calendars are posted below. Today, we have a spring-like storm that will also have a major winter component to it well to the north of Kansas City. The energy in today’s upper level storm will mostly track north of Kansas City, and this will limit the threat of wide spread and any organization to rain and thunderstorm development. A few small bands of showers will likely get generated with the best chance of any thunderstorms arriving as the cold front approaches tonight:
Ths storm system, that is moving out into the plains today, has a lot of the features you would look for in a significant severe weather set-up. Today, however, we just don’t have any heating and the dew points are still somewhat low. The dew points may surge to near 60 degrees by sometime this evening which will force the high temperature up to near 60 after dark tonight. The daylight hours are still a bit short and there isn’t enough time for any heating of the lower atmosphere near the surface. And, there is a thick overcast that has developed. The chance of rain and possible thunderstorms will arrive much later in the day. Take a look at this next forecast map valid this evening at 7:40 PM:
We will be firmly in the warm sector of the storm before midnight and it should be quite mild and windy through around midnight. The dry line will fall apart and the cold front will be on our doorstep by just after midnight:
Thunderstorms are possible this evening as the energy of the system mostly lifts north of our area aloft. The dry line will fall apart and the cold front will take over later this evening and this is when I am expecting a line of thunderstorms to develop. We will be tracking these development on 41 Action News. By Wednesday morning we will have a windy, but sunny change as the storm closes off due north of us.
We are forecasting this weather pattern to continue to cycle according to the LRC as we move through the spring months. What will this same weather pattern that may have brought us the lowest snow total ever recorded in a Kansas City snow season? We projected out this pattern, assuming a roughly 45 to 50 day cycle and produced these severe weather calendars. In April the flow aloft is much stronger than it is in May and June. Storm systems tend to move much faster. In each of the red areas there may be just one or two chances of severe weather. After further analysis yesterday I believe the first part of April will actually be quite calm, with the more active period likely near the middle of the month:
I am expecting an active May. There is some concern that the jet stream in that mysterious middle stream will take over and the heights will rise significantly in May. There is, however, a mean long term long-wave trough, that has helped produce our wet winter, located over the southern Rocky Mountain states. When energy drops into this trough in May it will likely result in very wet weather. I am expecting a wet month of May with a few good severe weather set-ups. Here is the May calendar:
Here is the June Calendar:
Have a great day. We will update the blog as the storm gets a bit closer this evening.
I am still writing and will finish this blog around 8:15 AM…