Good evening or early Thursday morning bloggers,
The weather is again calming down for a few days. Kansas City missed the rain and thunderstorm activity Tuesday night. It did hit areas south and southeast of the city, however, but overall it has been getting drier and drier. The pattern is cycling as described by my theory the LRC. So, the same pattern that just brought us our dry and warm winter will likely bring us a drier than average spring and a warmer than average one as well. By the summer we are forecasting many 100 degree days whereas it has not been officially 100 at KCI Airport in nearly 4 years.
Looking back at our winter forecast and the pattern we have been experiencing:
Our winter forecast was almost spot on, but we should have forecast even less snowfall. Overall I would give this winter forecast a solid A.
This map above is the graphic we made to show the dominant storm track for the winter. It has pretty much been spot on. This second map below shows the temperature forecast for the winter:
We are forecasting this pattern to continue producing the above average temperatures and the drier than average rainfall this spring. When it comes to severe weather we believe there will be some big severe weather set ups, but there is also a chance the severe thunderstorms taper off early as summer approaches. The part of the pattern that just cycled through will be back in around 60 days:
So, what is going to happen this spring?
I sure hope I am wrong. I would put our chance of being right at 85% with the chance of something unusual happening and we end up wetter than we are forecasting to be at 15%.
Have a great weekend!