Good morning bloggers,
A storm in Mexico is heading our way. This storm will be producing tremendous rainfall amounts of 2 to 6 inches across parts of the deep south including Texas, Arkansas, and Louisiana. Take a look at this moisture laden system that is now moving north northeast towards the Texas/Mexico border:
The upper low will go through a major transition as it approaches Kansas City and ejects out. The big upper level low will become a fast moving upper low as it weakens during the day on Thursday. It will eventually get absorbed into the overall flow aloft and become just a shortwave moving into the Great Lakes and falling apart later in the week.
As this upper level low approaches North Texas, Kansas City will go into a good position for one nice band of rain to move in around sunrise tomorrow morning. The window of rainfall opportunity will open up for around three to six hours and then the dry slot will move in effectively shutting off any organized rainfall. Before that happens, there is a brief opportunity for some heavy rain and possibly even a thunderstorm. This rainfall map on the left shows this mornings NAM rainfall forecast for this storm. This model is maxing out at between 0.40″ and 0.50″ in our area early Thursday. Other models have had lesser amounts.
After this storm moves by, a deep trough is forecast to dig into the western states and then swing out way. A cold blast will be organizing over the northern plains with snow likely across the Dakota’s. This cold front will arrive by early Saturday, but first we have a nice warm-up heading our way for Friday Night In The Big Town. Take a look at this surface forecast map for Friday:
A 992 mb surface low is a rather deep and strong surface cyclone developing over Colorado on this forecast map. 992 mb is equivalent to a pressure of 29.29″. Can you imagine this set-up during the spring? We are in a roughly 50 to 55 day cycle, according to the LRC, and this part of the pattern will be returning in early March, and around the last ten days of April. The April version of this years weather pattern will likely create a severe weather outbreak. In this cycle, we just won’t have all of the ingredients coming together for severe weather, but we will have the ingredients coming together that will likely break some record high temperatures. Kansas City’s record high on Friday is 65° and we just may break it. The cold front will move through early Saturday and then our attention moves to the base of the upper level trough that you can see on the next map.
The weather pattern is amplifying and energizing over the next few days. This next map, on the left and you can click on it for a larger view, shows the 500 mb forecast valid Saturday morning. The 500 mb level is up around 18,000 feet and this is half way through the atmosphere in weight. 0 mb is the top of the atmosphere as there is no weight above this level. And, 1000 mb is near the surface. We like looking at the 500 mb level to track storm systems and how they may impact other levels of the atmosphere, including what we experience at the surface. This map shows a very deep trough forming over the western United States and there are many important features we are tracking for the next few days.
The bottom of the deep trough dropping south over Arizona, California, and Mexico has to be watched closely for how it turns the corner and lifts out into the plains states. And, the second wave in the Gulf of Alaska will be diving in and this has to be monitored closely for a possible storm early next week.
Let’s take a look at what the GFS is throwing out at us today:
This mornings GFS model takes the energy, that I showed on the previous map on the left, kicking out into the plains Saturday night. Just like the New Year’s Eve storm, this is forecast to become stretched out and absorbed into the flow as it passes us by. But, this is a bit different. If it is a little stronger, then it will pull in a band of heavy precipitation into our viewing area. This is a big forecast problem for us. Take a look at the precipitation forecast by this same computer model:
If this is exactly right, which it won’t be, but if it were, there would be a six inch band of snow just south of Kansas City, and not even one snowflake on the north side of the city. Once again, that would be if this is exactly right. If this is any weaker and more stretched out, then the entire viewing area would just have a cold blast, north winds and dry conditions. If it’s any stronger and more organized, even just slightly stronger, then the precipitation would be pulled farther north.
Obviously, we will be paying very close attention to this one. Right now we have a 20% chance in our forecast. Let’s see what other models show. The NAM model, by the way, was a bit more stretched out and as a result had no precipitation in our viewing area.
Have a great Wednesday. We will go over the details of all of these weather changes on 41 Action News today and tonight.