Good Saturday morning bloggers,
The National Weather Service has placed us in a Winter Weather Advisory as you can see below. We are going to be on the northwestern edge of this storm system. Where will the snow cut-off line be?
We have been monitoring, and trying to make an accurate forecast for this storm system all week long. I have discussed how just a slightly more negatively tilted trough aloft would pull the moisture into the colder air. Let’s take a look at one of the models, the RUC model, that came out at 5 AM:
Now, this RUC model comes out every hour and we will be getting a new model run quite often today. The latest NAM model had the northwest cut-off line farther southeast, but I don’t have much confidence in this latest solution. On the left, you can see the RUC model 3 hour total precipitation ending at 5 PM; notice how there is one thin band of precipitation that forms over the south KC metro area, but it is an isolated area.
This second forecast map shows the precipitation total ending at 8 PM and the KC metro area is the northwest cut-off line. This model would indicate that a rather strong band of moderate snow, possibly a few heavy pockets of snow forming just south of KC.
Here, on the left, is the forecast for the three hours ending at 11 PM. At this time a larger area of snow tried to fall over a larger area of our viewing area. Anyway you look at this we are on the northwestern edge of this system.
Jeff Penner is showing a snowfall forecast chart that we made around 7 AM this morning. The NAM model that came out put up a red flag on this forecast. It had a farther south solution, but we still think this snowfall forecast is possible. When you are on the northwestern edge, just the slightest change could take you out of the storm.
Right now, I don’t really have a gut instinct on this storm. I will wait a few more hours and see how this is really coming together. I just looked at, and analyzed the enhanced watervapor satellite loop. There is a wave moving our way, located just east of the New Mexico/Texas state line at 8:45 AM. But, anyway I look at this, we are on the edge of this storm.
Have a great Saturday! It will be interesting, and hopefully not frustrating, tracking this storm system today. I will update the blog this afternoon as we gather more information.