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Udated: Snow likely tonight & Ice Potential Increasing Next Week

8:30 PM update:

A band of heavy snow showers embedded in two areas of snow will be moving across the KC metro area during the next three hours. A quick inch of snow, possibly more if you are in the heaviest area, is expected. There is a second band moving southeast into northwest Missouri.  We are in the axis, but areas just off to the east may not even see a flurry from this.  Here is the 8:30 PM radar:

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There is a nice spinning comma head of snow moving in from the northwest with this first heavy band. The pinks to reds show heavy snow. Let me know what you experience. I will be on live at 10 PM on 41 Action News.

Gary

Good evening bloggers,

It’s Friday Night In The Big Town!  And, three storm systems are going to affect us in the next week. The third one, and strongest one will likely produce freezing rain, rain, thunderstorms, and snow in the KC viewing area.  But before we get to that third storm, which is still five nights away, we have snow heading towards us tonight.

The snow is a small scale fast moving system.  Snow is likely in Kansas City between around 10 PM and 2 AM with some minor accumulation possible. Here is a graphic I am showing on the earlier weather-casts tonight:

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 After this system moves by our attention will switch to next week’s storm system.  It is still a storm that doesn’t exist at the moment. It is just a stream of energy moving across the Pacific that will dive to near the California coast by early next week. A storm moving by Monday will bring colder air in, which will set us up for some type, if not various types of winter weather next week.

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Have a great night. I will go over the details on 41 Action News tonight at 6 and 10 PM.

Gary

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68 comments to Udated: Snow likely tonight & Ice Potential Increasing Next Week

  • stjoeattorney

    teaser…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………

  • mattmaisch

    18Z GFS is better for snowfall in the KC metro. Very sharp cutoff, but paints 12″+ totals in northern Missouri, and 6″+ from I-70 north. Get south of the I-70 corridor by more than 60 miles though, and you drop down to nothing. That’s how this run looks anyway. So the GFS is a little better, whereas the ECMWF is much worse. At least we have a big storm to talk about. Now we just need it to dive south.

  • HeatMiser

    Yeah, we know it’s coming but the precise track of heaviest snowfall isn’t knowable yet. What the models say about it being along or north or south of any hwy is 100 percent irrelevant this early.

  • Kole Christian

    What to look at is the trend of where the snowfall will be, and the models have consistently had the sharp cutoff on I-70.

  • mattmaisch

    No question, but what does seem likely even now, is the fact that there is probably going to be a sharp cutoff between significant snowfall, and very little snowfall. The odds of that setting up near KC seem pretty high, since that’s the way it typically goes down around here.

    For the record, anything the models say at this point is pretty irrelevant, but that doesn’t mean I won’t look. I’m pretty sure you take a peak as well, or I doubt you’d bother to get involved in the discussion. All I did was point out what the data illustrates. It certainly doesn’t mean that I think the storm will play out the way the model suggests, but I figure, that goes without saying.

  • HeatMiser

    Nothing wrong with having a little fun and guessing based on the latest data. My only point was it’s just a guess this early, just a roll of the dice.

    • mattmaisch

      You’re 100% correct. I’m sure there are plenty of us that probably put a little too much stock into what the models say, especially this far out, but it’s part of the fun of tracking these storms I guess, especially the ones like this one that have a chance to really produce a lot of snow somewhere in our region of the country. Been a boring winter, so each storm that comes and goes without producing for us is one less chance for a good snowstorm. Hopefully this one comes through.

  • R-Dub

    I’m not really buying into the ice scenario. So far this winter, the cold air in place in front of storms has been quick to retreat. Looks the same here, the cold air in place just ain’t that cold. The only other time we were talking ice days in advance of the storm, it ended up being nothing but rain here in KC.

    • sedsinkc

      Good point. We’re all just having fun with the data. Given the general model trend over the past few days, you’re probably right, it will end up being all rain. I normally don’t pay attention to model data until we’re 2 or 3 days from the event. But in this non-winter, gotta play the hand you’re dealt if you want to have some fun.

  • sedsinkc

    My interpretation of the 18z GFS is slightly different. I still see a significant period of some sleet to mainly freezing rain that may start as snow for a couple of hours in KC from 7 or 8 p.m. Wed. night until possibly changing to plain rain some time Thursday morning. This changeover line stays closer to KC than it did in the 12z GFS run. The rain slacks off Thurs. PM as we go into the dry slot, then changes to snow Thur. evening as the deformation zone comes towards us. Most of the deformation zone snow on backside stays just N and NW of KC. There is more potential for a sizable ice storm locally than a big snow storm, although some minor accum. of a couple of inches could happen in KC. Based on this run of the GFS, which we know will change. Still fun to look at the data though. If the 12z Euro is right though, it will be mainly a rain event.

    • sedsinkc

      Much of my interpretation is based on looking at the position of the 540 thickness line and the 0 C 850mb lines over the duration of the event. For those who look at the data and see a mainly snow event, please explain. I wish to learn if there is important data I am overlooking.

      • mattmaisch

        sedsinkc,

        In reading the 1000/500 chart like you referenced, the totals do look a bit lower. I was also basing what I was saying, at least in part on this map of 24 hour snowfall per the 18Z GFS, according to IWM. I see your point though. It’s such a close call around KC the way it looks right now, but that is usually how it is around here.

        “http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013021518&time=24&var=ASNOWI&hour=150″

      • RickMckc

        Anyone interested in what Seds is asking, look here:

        “http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kmci”

        … for a more precise measurement of the parameters he mentioned. Notice how the 850mb temps stay below zero for much of the event, but the thickness increases to 545 … all while the surface temp stays well below freezing. If this scenario verifies, it looks like a lot of ice/sleet as opposed to snow.

        Also, notice at the bottom of that page that the 16-day total precip is forecast @2.22 … with almost all of it falling in some wintry form.

    • sedsinkc

      North of St. Joseph could have significant snow next week. The farther north you go, the more snow you’d get and the less ice. Around KC it appears ice is the biggest concern.

  • kellyinkc

    here is a good video of the meteor.
    “http://rt.com/news/meteorite-crash-urals-chelyabinsk-283/”
    “http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d5xMYRBpLSI&feature=player_embedded”

  • stjoeattorney

    I said 12-16 yeterday for StJoe and i will stick to that number, less sleet MCI 7-9 Wheeler 4-6 Indepedence 3-5.

  • sedsinkc

    Regarding tonight’s event, the W and SW side of the metro looks like the target for a minor accumulation. I’ll be surprised if where I live N of downtown we get anything more than a dusting, if that. Since this system is so driven by the temp contrast between surface and upper air (convection), I wonder if night time will weaken it as it moves towards us.

  • Emaw

    Billy Joe down on the farm just told me that his dairy cow Gertrude is gettin a little edgy when he trys to get milk. He said the last time she did that was about a week before the February blizzard from a couple years ago. In his words ” her teats get a little sensitive before a big storm” I’m just sayin’

  • Kole Christian

    Snow is showing up on the radar

  • Theo

    We’ll see how it looks when it comes on shore next week. Way too early, IMO, to talk ice storm, rain storm, snow storm or no storm.

    Be careful on the roads if you’re out partying later. 1/2 inch of snow can really raise hell with the knuckleheads who don’t know how to drive on it, plus some booze on board.

  • Skylar

    NWS posted this 30 minutes ago: “https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=460332747354707&set=a.129569323764386.26179.126747474046571&type=1&theater”

  • blizzard68

    Snowing real good here grass is white

  • melafinatu

    Snowing at KCI

  • blizzard68

    Leavenworth

  • sedsinkc

    Snow is evolving according to plan. West, SW, and south sides of town may get a half inch or less. Northeast and east sides will be lucky to get a dusting.

  • AFPILOTWXJUNKIE

    Just had a few flakes fall in PC

  • blizzard68

    Driveway covered its comming down hard now

  • ChiefsFan

    Snow has just started here in downtown kc, snowing pretty good right now

  • weather

    Does a 1/2 inch count as a snow event? I would say no. 2 or more inches I would consider a snow storm. I would say we are still waiting on 2-4 snow storms for the month. Maybe Wednesday will pan out for snow. Then again this is KC so probably not. I’m sure the blog wiil be active with maps and links and bears oh my.

    Tell Billy Joe to get some teat warmrs for them cows! Nothing like a glass of fresh warm milk straight from the teat!

    • Morham

      That is a pretty good question. Does a half inch cover the grass or roads? It may or may not. It might be enough to make a nice picture or painting. Kind of subjective really. I tend to agree wth you. But it sure was pretty tonight, even if it wont last long. Cheers!

  • It just came in so fast in Olathe already a dusting!

  • Skylar

    The snow started pretty much instantly, going from nothing to accumulating in a few seconds, however it looks like it’s weakening on radar.

  • Emaw

    I hope I can get out of my driveway in the morning . . . . .

  • weather

    Very light snow in Eastern Jackson County. No more then a dusting if that. Skylar is correct weakening rather quickly.

  • HeatMiser

    I hope next week’s storm is snow. Ice sucks and nobody like it. I love snow and I’d rather have it hot and 80 next week than sit around in cold condo with no electricity and ice all over everything. Ice, go F*** yourself. Snow…come on down!

  • weather

    Blues are rocking in Calgary!

  • yewtrees

    Which day from the previous LRC matches the snow shower tonight which was not detected until yesterday?

  • AFPILOTWXJUNKIE

    Only very light flurries in PC. Not much to see or look at. No accumulation at all, amazing what a few miles does.

  • sedsinkc

    This storm’s an overachiever at my house, 0.1 inches on the ground. One more round of snow to go, might get a quarter of an inch!

  • mattmaisch

    Only out to 96 hours, but to this point the GFS is coming in with a different looking solution.

  • ChiefsFan

    5-2 Go Blues!!!!

  • Kole Christian

    Grass covered at UMKC now, BIG flakes coming down.

  • EmmysMom

    Up here near Liberty, not even a flake falling from the sky.

  • sedsinkc

    00z GFS looks slightly warmer still than the last run. Now almost all the snow stays north and northwest of KC. We still get a good slug of freezing rain, but it looks to be closer to 32 when a lot of it is falling which would lessen accumulations on the trees/power lines. It does get above freezing Thursday afternoon as the rain starts winding down. Total precip over 1 inch across the area. Still many more model runs to go before storm starts.

  • AFPILOTWXJUNKIE

    “http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013021600&time=3&var=SNODI&hour=144″

    That’s funny. A foot of snow. I’m believing that. NOT

  • sedsinkc

    I’m scratching my head a bit. At hour 144, the 540 thickness line has moved back south of KC, but the 0 degree C 850 mb line is still well north of KC. What does that mean? Wet snow?

  • Theo

    Very light dusting on grass (nothing on roads) at Blue Valley West.

  • AFPILOTWXJUNKIE

    Good bit if snow coming down in PC. Covered cars and that’s about it. None on roads or even grass

  • McCabe58

    What is PC?…

  • OlatheMatt

    Looks like powdered sugar over here

  • Jayhawkie

    I live in Edwardsville and we got at least an inch of snow. Ground is completely covered.

  • Skylar

    About 1″ near Johnson County Executive. It must’ve snowed more overnight because when I went to bed after it “ended” last night, there was only a dusting, maybe 1/4″ of snow on the grass and on my deck.

  • HeatMiser

    I haven’t gone outside yet to check, but I bet here in Lawrence at least a good inch of really fluffy snow on the ground.

  • blue8091

    Reverse psychology – out walking the dog around 730p – all the neighbors talking about snow coming – I, of course in keeping with the theme – said no way – no snow. I have no idea what all the white fluffy stuff is on my lawn and deck in S. OP, but at least my neighbors now think I’m clueless. Staying on course – I plan on telling them to get ready for THE ice storm of 2013 – still predicting NO snow and see how far this gets us :)

  • blue8091

    ps. hope emaw is able to get out of the driveway in order to give Billy Joe an extra set of helping hands..lol

  • HeatMiser

    Er, does anyone else see that rather large area of snow in Nebraska coming down in this general direction? http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/lawrence-ks/66044/weather-radar/328846

  • Kole Christian

    Big flakes last night, just enough to cover the grass at UMKC

  • weatherman brad

    I got about 1 1/2 inches here at the campus of ku in Lawrence from last night, there was an inch or less when I went to bed last night.

    I am looking forward to next weeks storm, it’ll be interesting what it does. I can do without the wintery mix and ice though, I just want a big snowstorm.

    Brad

    brad

  • Emaw

    Just finished breakfast, getting ready to go outside and dig out now. I’m really getting concerned about this Thursday storm, she’s gonna be a biggin !

  • sedsinkc

    Only four days after Gary posed the question, “Will we have more accumulating snow this winter” on the blog, we have our answer and it is yes. 0.2 inches of snow officially measured at KCI last night, bringing seasonal total to 4.9 inches. I also had .2 inches at my house in KC North.