Good morning bloggers,
It is early, 3:45 AM as I am writing this first blog entry of the day. I will be going back to sleep for a few hours, I hope, but I had to write this first entry of the day as I am pretty excited about this storm that is approaching. We all know how hard it is to get it to snow in our area. We do average around 20 inches a year, but after last year’s record low snowfall total I think most of us understand how precious this is for a snow enthusiast like me. With that said, I know that snow causes all kinds of problems for travel and I don’t like that part of it at all. I just love how pretty snow makes everything look when it is all white outside with a fresh snowfall. And, growing up in Southern California I spent the first 18 years of my life rarely ever experiencing snow fall at all. So, maybe this is why it is so exciting to me.
Okay, with that said, the latest data has strongly trended north and more organized on today’s chance of snow. We have talked about this system all week, but we didn’t give it much of a chance of producing snow. I knew it would only take a very slightly more negative tilt in the upper levels of the atmosphere to pull in a little more moisture and place us in a favorable spot for snow and this is what apparently has happened.
A strong cold front blew through just after midnight and colder air is surging in:
The above map is the 3 AM Surface map showing 50s over central Missouri and KCI Airport already down to 33 degrees. We are now just a few hours from a very good chance of snow. Take a look at the latest NAM model simulated radar at 9 PM tonight:
This simulated radar map shows some pretty heavy snow for two or three hours near Kansas City. Here is the map 41 Action News meteorologist Jeff Penner made last night at 10 PM:
We will make adjustments to this forecast and I will post a new map and discuss the new data around 9 AM. Jeff Penner will be on 41 Action News from 8 AM until 10 AM with details of this rapidly changing weather forecast.
Have a great morning. Look for that new blog around 9 AM.
Gary
Gary,
does this system have he potential to produce 4″+ of SNOW? i was looking on the NWS HPC website and they have a 5-10% chance of atleast 6″
“http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf_24hr/prb_24hsnow_ge06_2013011212f024.gif”
It does have some potential to produce 4 inches in a very thin band near the heaviest area. It will be a short window of snow opportunity, so let’s see how it develops.
the RAP(RUC) model is being pretty aggressive with snow totals for the metro
I’ll take it. Any snow at this point is great, and especially since this one is more of a surprise. I just hope we can squeeze a little more out and get like 3 or 4 inches in KC that would be fantastic!
WWA…..1 to 2 expected 3 or possibly 4 in isolated heavier bands….looks like we found that needle!
“http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays2.php3?STATIONID=EAX”
06z GFS snow map gives the metro 2-4″
EAX says the only thing preventing heavier snow is that the best lift is outside the dendritic growth zone, but if the models change this higher snowfall totals will be produced.
Much colder than yesterday. Hooray for snow, about what time can we expect it to start?
Around or after sunset
Ok Thanks, I have some errands to run. Hopefully I can play with my snowblower in the morning.
Snow sucks.
Cheer up theo. it snows like 5 days a year! Jeeze
lol true that
Hey bloggers,
Hang on! The latest NAM has almost nothing in Kansas City. Remember, we are on the northwest edge of this system. I will write up a new blog entry showing possibilities soon.
Gary, isn’t it getting too close to the storm for the models like GFS and NAM to be reliable? wouldn’t the RAP(RUC) be better this close to a storm?
POOF, LOL. Seems like a dome over KC.
snow is great, ice sucks. LOL
the RAP(RUC) is still suggesting over 4″ for the metro
I’m Mister
HeatMiser
I’m Mister Sun
I’m Mister
Green Christmas
I’m Mister 101
Muahahahahahhaaaaa! No snow for you Kansas City!
If you go by nowcasting, it looks like there’s already snow developing quite a bit earlier then any of the models have been showing. However very little of it is reaching the ground at this point.
Snow developing already? Have not pulled up radar yet.
ahhh, I see now. interesting