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Small Snow Event Likely Later Tonight

Good evening bloggers,

I was just on the air, and after some extensive analysis I came up with this snowfall forecast map:

2

Temperatures will stay above freezing for a few more hours and after yesterday’s 76º, the ground will take a while to freeze.  The first snowflakes that fall will likely melt, and then if it gets heavy enough, then we will have some slick conditions early in the morning.

I am convinced it is going to snow in Kansas City. I am still not convinced as to how organized it will be when it moves in early tomorrow morning. I like to look at the 500 mb level, and this forecast map below shows the forecast for 6 AM. This 22z RUC model was a bit more organized than the past few runs and the upper level storm was more negatively tilted and not as sheared out.  I will be looking at the model runs and updating the forecast by later this evening.

RUC 500 mb

There is a band of snow now forming over western Kansas and it is heading our way. This sounds familiar to me. I will have to go back to the December 20th blog entries and see what I was thinking then.  I know there was a similar band that formed over western Kansas and we tracked it into the city that night as well.

Have a great evening and check back in later. I am on the air in a few minutes at 6 PM.

Gary

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126 comments to Small Snow Event Likely Later Tonight

  • Kcchamps

    “http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/RAP/displayMapLocalDiskDateDomain.cgi?keys=rap_jet:&runtime=2013012920&plot_type=acsnw_t5sfc&fcst=18&time_inc=60&num_times=19&model=rr&ptitle=RAP%20Model%20Fields%20-%20Experimental&maxFcstLen=18&fcstStrLen=-1&domain=t5&adtfn=1″

    latest RAP(ruc)snow forecast has 3-6″ for the metro

  • Kole Christian

    I’m not not going to buy into 2-4 until I see the models runs post 18z

  • sedsinkc

    The RAP overdid snow totals for the Dec. 20 event and it’s my opinion that it’s overdoing it again.

  • Kole Christian

    I wouldn’t doubt it. It is KC we’re talking about.

  • AFPILOTWXJUNKIE

    Here is what Gary posted on the main site :
    By: Gary Lezak
    Summary: A dusting to 2 inches is possible later tonight from a storm system that is moving by fast. For more in-depth weather information go to our weather blog at http://weatherblog.kshb.com
    Here’s Kansas City’s Most Accurate Forecast
    Tonight: A 100% chance of snow, A dusting to 2 inches of snow possible across the area. Some higher amounts are possible farther north. Low: 24 ° .

  • dpollard

    1.4″ of rain here in Blue Springs. Very exciting weather and very beneficial rain. Hopefully, we can squeeze out several inches of snow… close to 3″ would be amazing!

  • Kole Christian

    37 degrees here in Parkville, waiting on the snow.

  • Jerry

    Why do blog entries get started that don’t have any information?

  • AFPILOTWXJUNKIE

    Gary is about to go on air

  • jeffnskc

    Anyone have any rain totals for the 119th & State Line vicinity?

    Thanks

  • chiefs

    Gary sure dont seemed to impressed with this… dusting south
    1 to 2 around the city more to the north he just said on tv

  • Jacob Honeycutt

    “http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?location=USKS0523&animate=true”

    The snow is falling apart significantly in western Kansas. Not looking good for snow lovers in the metro.

    • sedsinkc

      Jacob, the storm is reconfiguring itself with the snow growing across Nebraska, but if you look at the local Dodge City radar from NWS or Wunderground, the snow out there has rapidly intensified in the last few frames, after weakening earlier. That said, I still expect (only) 1 to 3 inches locally when it’s all over by noon tomorrow.

  • stjoeattorney

    0.08 inches of rain, my only hope is .30-40 in rain turning to snow while te temp is still 37 dewpoint has dropped to 33 degrees, this should get a ne jolt of moisture from the rain as it wraps around.

  • Jacob Honeycutt

    Snow starting to fill back in out in Kansas. Lets see how this holds together as it moves closer to KC.

  • AFPILOTWXJUNKIE

    Gary, what are you wearing? Lol. So many lines I thought my tv had gone bad.

  • lenexa_loon

    1.3″ of beautiful rain in western Lenexa. The storm that they didn’t see coming until it was on radar, as opposed to 20+ blown precip forecasts since last April, just dumped a huge amount of rain for January. Isn’t that dang funny?

    • mowermike

      Lenexa_Loon

      We seem to miss all your posts when the forecast is accurate. There’s been many those also.

      Not saying they hit the forecast today, clearly they missed the amounts.(nobody’s complaining) However, there was rain and thunderstorms in the forecast with falling temps and snow at night.

      • If I may be so brave to ask why must you respond to people that post things that are correc? I haven’t been here long but you always seem to have something to say to another blogger. Just an observation & I’m sure you’ll have something to say to this :)

  • AFPILOTWXJUNKIE

    The 22z RAP shows a good snowfall rate/ hr for our area. I think Gary is going to have to update those totals by an inch or two at 6pm.

  • sedsinkc

    FWIW, NWS Pleasant Hill snowfall forecast map just posted on Twitter. “http://ow.ly/i/1rpS6″

  • kellyinkc

    Fantastic rain! Unfortunately my rain gauge is upside down.
    It may not be a bad idea to go out and wipe down the car doors and spray the locks to keep them from freezing.

  • melafinatu

    So…what’s the time frame on when snow begins?

  • Skylar

    Considering climatology and what was being forecasted 36 hours ago, I’d say 1-3″ for the area to seal in all the moisture we got is something to be happy about. :) Whatever does accumulate on the roads will likely not last very long tomorrow.

  • sedsinkc

    Roads won’t get much accumulation on them from this storm, but with the roads being wet and some drizzle falling to keep them wet tonight and then some of the snow melting on contact when it starts, any roads that are not treated will be icy by tomorrow morning.

  • HeatMiser

    Latest snowfall total map from the NWS:

    http://www.crh.noaa.gov/top/?n=winterbrief.htm

  • ChiefsFan

    Skylar, Sedsinkc why do think the snow accumulation on won’t last tomorrow, the temp is only going to be 29 for a high

    • Skylar

      Because it was 76 degrees yesterday, and we spent about 48 hours above 60 degrees. The roads should melt pretty rapidly once the snow ends.

  • HeatMiser

    KC in the 2-3 inch zone

  • ChiefsFan

    Sorry meant to put, why don’t you think the snow accumulation on roadway tomorrow won’t last long high temp only 29

    • sedsinkc

      Never said that.

    • sedsinkc

      I believe untreated roads, esp. if the sun doesn’t come out until late tomorrow, WILL remain icy all day.

    • AFPILOTWXJUNKIE

      It all depends on when we hit freezing and when snow begins to fall to determine road conditions, if we get an hour or so at/ below freezing before snow falls then we will have worse roads, right now with so much water on the roads and grass it will take a good hour of heavy snow to cause the roads to slick up…tomorrow will be a different story with low temps as rain today and snow from overnight will stick around til about Saturday , but roads will be clear by noon.

    • sedsinkc

      I said the roads would not get much snow accumulation on them, but they would get icy by morning. I should have said the roads would not get as much accumulation on them as grassy surfaces. But they will still probably get 1 inch of accumulation if the grass has 2 inches.

  • Kcchamps

    “http://www.crh.noaa.gov/wxstory.php?site=eax”

    NWS weather story for the metro

  • frigate

    1.33 in SW Grain Valley and still raining lightly!!! Wonderful!!!

  • Kcchamps

    “http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=EAX&issuedby=EAX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1″

    updated NWS Forecast Discussion, has a title of “…SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER TONIGHT…” they seem to want to up our snow totals but don’t have any snowfall forecast numbers in the update

  • f00dl3

    This is very similar to December 20th. That snow near Dodge City has a long way to track. Models last time around had that stuff bombing out as well. I pretty much fell for it too – thought we’d for sure get another 1-2″ of snow on top of the 3″ that had already fallen from the morning / afternoon precipitation batch.

    Will this be different?

    • mowermike

      F00dl3,

      You’re thinking of the Dec. 31st snow. The Dec. 20th snow came right at 4am and lasted about 5 hours dropping 1-4 inches. It was an intense snow band with close to 50 mph wind gust. This won’t have the wind gust but may have the 1-4 inch band. Still some gusty wind though.

  • ChiefsFan

    sorry i misunderstood Sedsinkc

  • AFPILOTWXJUNKIE

    Misting rain falling in PC. Winds out of north.

  • Kcchamps

    latest RAP snow forecast has 3-6″ for the metro

    • Kcchamps

      sorry forgot the link!

      “http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/RAP/jsloopLocalDiskDateDomain.cgi?dsKeys=rap_jet:&runTime=2013012922&plotName=acsnw_t5sfc&fcstInc=60&numFcsts=19&model=rr&ptitle=RAP%20Model%20Fields%20-%20Experimental&maxFcstLen=18&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=t5″

  • AFPILOTWXJUNKIE

    I’m curious what Gary is seeing with the 1-2 in possibly 3 , in his forecast vice all the models showing a strengthening storm with more totals in each model output.

    Gary, can you enlighten us?

  • Skylar

    If you want to obsess over little details, compare today’s NAM runs with the current radar loop. All of them are a bit too far north and west of where the snow band currently is. It probably nothing, but maybe something to think about.

  • Thatonekid2

    This is a very similar setup to the Dec 20th setup. But there are some major differences. the Dec 20th storm just slid across Missouri. This low is forcasted to wrap up and slow down in central missouri or at least a piece of it is and the upper level energy is more productive for snow in kc. But the temp was over 70 the last few days. so its gonna be a very tough forcast

  • NCSUguy77

    Has there ever been a day in KC weather history, where we set a daily record high maximum and had snow fall within the same day?

  • ChiefsFan

    Gary, when do you expect the snow to start here in metro kc, you mention several different times on 6pm news

  • ChiefsFan

    Gary also all signs are pointing to more snow with this system, might have to up them total at 10:00, it’s looking that way!

  • Chiefs fan why the obsession with snow? Are you in the snow removal business or something?

  • We all know the forecast will change at 10:00. It’s entertaining reading all the guesses on snow amounts. The models have stunk as of late so I guess we can’t put to much faith in them. We will all know in the morning or aternoon how much snow we’ll get.

  • Jacob Honeycutt

    NWS in my opinion should shift the WWA south and east about 2 counties based on the new data. I want to see what the new RUC has to say

  • weatherfreaker

    Just playing it safe since the last few snow forecasts overshot the actual amounts locally???

  • AFPILOTWXJUNKIE

    The temp still hasn’t dropped in past 3 hours. Need temps to fall to setup conditions for a nice snowfall.

    Yes , we guesstimate on totals based on what we see and observe, kind of why we have the blog for us amateur weather lovers.

  • I hope we get 3-6 inches because the old snow blower has had nothing to do in 2 years. It needs some work!

  • Kcchamps

    “http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/RAP/displayMapLocalDiskDateDomain.cgi?keys=rap_jet:&runtime=2013012923&plot_type=acsnw_sfc&fcst=18&time_inc=60&num_times=19&model=rr&ptitle=RAP%20Model%20Fields%20-%20Experimental&maxFcstLen=18&fcstStrLen=-1&domain=conus&adtfn=1″

    here is the latest 23z RAP(RUC) snow forecast

    • Jacob Honeycutt

      I think the accumulating snow will be farther south than what Gary is saying. But with that said, I dont think it will be more than an inch on the south side. We have to remember that the ground is still warm and there is still lots of water on the ground from this mornings rain. So when the snow starts to fall, it will melt on contact for a while. So what ever the RUC is saying, I would subtract an inch or so from that. I think 1-3″ is a good forecast for the metro southward. 1″ or less from Clinton up to southern Jackson county, 2″ for downtown and 3″ up towards KCI. And the 3-6″+ will be where the NWS has the WSW. This could still change a little but I dont see any big changes right now. Gary is doing a good job with his forecast. Hes not letting his wishcasting take over with this one. Lets see what the next few runs of the RUC look like and we must look at radar to see how the bands are setting up and where they are tracking. We can still forecast this with the RUC but it is also a nowcasting event as well.

  • ChiefsFan

    Yeah, I do snow removel, sorry for all the questions

  • ChiefsFan

    Who Edward?

  • ChiefsFan

    I work for a company, this is my 9th year doing snow removel

  • McCabe58

    I hope it stays right around 32-31 degrees. I want the big fat flakes this time around. Still thinking we will be surprised with this one. 3-6″ would be a surprise in my opinion

  • Last year and so far this year not much work to do for sure!

    Looking at the interview of Scott Pioli you can tell just how uncomfortable he was talking about the suicide. When I was 17 in St. Louis I was working for Jack In The Box that was open 24 hours. I still remember my dad getting me up at 1 am on a Sunday morning saying my boss was on the phone. A worker who was 35 named Emmy was gunned down in the store. I got there as I was the closet “manager” (a glorified shift manger lol) to the store and I still remember him laying there in his blood and brain matter. He was shot twice in the head and once in the chest. I will never ever forget that and I’m sure Scott having witnessed the act will never ever forget it. Emmy was due to testify in Court on Wednesday as a witness to a murder and they belived he was killed so he couldn’t testify. He had 3 kids.

  • Having some decent rain again here in Eastern Jackson County. Looks like it’s redeveloping. If that snow hold together in Kansas and does not make a drastic move to the north east we may get 4 inches. Jacob had a good point with the melting that will happen for the first inch or two. As with snow it all depends on the temps and how much of it will stick.

  • Emaw

    Looks like Major Dryslot has just overtaken Salina and is marching east.

  • weatherfreaker

    My husband’s company does snow removal as well, and business for that part of his lawn and landscape company has not been so profitable for the past few years due to mild winters, so I/we really need this system to do something!!! We own the company and plow our own accounts, so all wishcasting aside, it comes down to supporting the family for us. These mild winters are a killer for people who rely on snow and ice for 3 or 4 months per year…I never got that before I married my husband…would have thought that was just crazy like many of you may still…but until you have walked in another’s shoes…you know the rest! Gary, bring some winter weather tonight, but my prayer is that everyone is safe!!!

  • ChiefsFan

    Emaw are you wishcating

  • Theo

    1.18 inches of rain near BV West. Temp holding at 36.5.

    Boy, I sure don’t see where the snow is going to come from. Radar looks pitiful.

  • ChiefsFan

    *wishcasting sorry

  • ChiefsFan

    This winter and last have been bad for snow removel business, winter before that was great

  • Emaw

    Just calling it like I see it Chiefs.

  • ChiefsFan

    I hear ya, just kidding, I enjoy all the input from the bloggers

  • AFPILOTWXJUNKIE

    The 00z NAM does not look good for snow. Moved everything farther north by a good bit.

    • Jacob Honeycutt

      By looking at the radar, I can agree with this. The southern edge is not looking good. A northern track is a track I would favor. But it still has to be watched.

  • AFPILOTWXJUNKIE

    It will all depend on the back of the comma head. The western kansas snow is still building in intensity, that will be our snow event. If it stays together we will get some if it hears it weakens then we will get alot less.

  • HeatMiser

    We haven’t heard from Gary in about four hours…is he hiding out? Come out of hiding Gary and tell us what the latest modeling is telling you about the snow coming in.

  • EAX’s forecast is different from Topeka’s: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/wxstory.php?site=eax

    Where is EAX getting their forecasts from??

  • ugh blog must be hungry

  • chiefs

    lastest ruc run showed less snow than the one before

  • Jacob Honeycutt

    I dont use this term very often, but looking at radar and looking where this is tracking, the dry slot looks to be waving at KC. The comma head is shifting north. If it keeps up with this track, KC may not get much in the way of snow. Still time to track this.

  • Emaw

    Steady light rain in north Olathe and 36 degrees , 1.25″ so far, pleasantly surprised by today’s rainfall, very nice!

  • Weatherman Kumke

    Major Dryslot making kids cry. I’m with EMAW. JACK SQUAT

    • SnowComando

      It appears to be back building around Goodland, KS, and dropping further South? Or is something else going on?

      “http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full_loop.php”

  • Emaw

    Kumke, I wasn’t quite ready to pull that out yet, but what the hell ! Good call.

  • stjoeattorney

    thre is development in central KS and right over us.

  • Kole Christian

    If the latest NAM is saying further North then I’ll stick to 1-2 inches for Parkville.

  • Kole Christian

    “http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays-10to1.php3?STATIONID=EAX

    “http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays-10to1.php3?STATIONID=EAX”

    Still look good for a couple of inches.

  • SnowComando

    Gary, (anyone)
    Will the snow formation in the panhandles hold together long enough to sweep through KC?

  • Kole Christian

    Honeycutt,

    I’m not either.

  • Twistersis

    1.5″ in the rain gauge in eastern Shawnee, and grateful for every drop that falls! I so wish for snow (I work in a school and the cries of “snow day! snow day!” were muttered in the halls all day) and enjoy reading the posts from all of you who really know about meteorology.

  • HeatMiser

    Low snowfall totals would be par for the course for these last two pathetic winters now wouldn’t it?

  • HeatMiser

    Hey Old Man Winter…do you hear me? I say you are a pathetic looser! Give us a good storm or go bleep yourself and quit wasting our time! These pathetic, woosey, “storms” you’ve been sending us are an embarrassment. Go away…we won’t notice the difference!

    (heh heh…maybe that’ll make him a man again)

  • McCabe58

    Lmao oh poor kumke…

  • numbers

    It is snowing here in Salina.

  • AFPILOTWXJUNKIE

    Anybody see te radar returns and the storm expanding and closing off a little between the warm wet side and the cold snow on the reverse? Seems to be intensifying.

  • ChiefsFan

    Gary, are you going to give a update on the blog, I’m interested on what your think, about the storm so far

    • weatherman brad

      ChiefsFan,

      you took the words right out of my mouth thanks a lot, just kidding I was wondering the same thing to if Gary was going to do a new 9:30pm blog write-up. I guess if he doesn’t do one I imagine what we will get in the morning.

      brad

  • Kole Christian

    Who’s staying up to watch this?

  • numbers

    Light snow in Salina.

  • im gonna stay up, been laid up with bad infection in my foot so need some excitment. Cant work tomorrow any cuz have to stay off my feet dr’s orders. Hope there is something pretty to look at outside. Gee, Im a sub teacher for school district and my phone has been ringing off the wall for jobs tomorrow. Either the plague has hit or teachers arent wanting to drive in the possible inclement weather tomorrow…

  • Nope going to bed. I’ll see wha happens in the morning. Watching the radar is not very exciting to me anyway. Will snow lovers be left at the alter once again? Good night and good luck!

  • Kole Christian

    New Blog

  • weathermanwannabe

    Gary, I hope when u say “small snow event” its like your 40% chance of precipitation forecast, which has provided 1.5 inches of rain today! Based on that, could have a mini blizzard tonight! LOL U all have a wonderful evening!