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Slight Risk Tonight

Good morning bloggers,

Kansas City Weather Time-Line:

  • Today: Partly cloudy & warm.  No chance of rain with south winds 10-25 mph.  High: 77°
  • Tonight:  Thunderstorms developing near a cold front. The chance of rain is highest along and southeast of I-35 around 8 PM to 11 PM. Low:  49°

The weather pattern is now becoming more active for around the next two weeks. There are still many questions for each days chances for rain, thunderstorms, snow, and severe weather. The SPC has a slight risk placed over the plains today.

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There is a capping layer aloft over Kansas today and this will prevent thunderstorms from forming before around 7 PM. The thunderstorms that do form after 7 PM may become severe with large hail being the main threat tonight near the slowly advancing cold front and surface low. The surface low is forecast to be over southwestern Oklahoma.

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As you can see above the tornado risk is quite low with todays set up nationwide. The slight risk extends from around Kansas City to Oklahoma City with large hail being the main risk type.

What is forecast to happen next later tonight on Wednesday has been throwing the models for a loop. Take a look at the GFS and the NAM model solutions:

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Look closely at northern Oklahoma into northern Kansas . The top map shows the GFS model solution which is all phased. The NAM model solution creates a separation and a weak upper low is trying to form between Tulsa, OK and Chanute, KS. If this separation develops, then the comma head has a chance of forming with heavy rain and thunderstorms moving up the Kansas/Missouri state line. But, if the GFS solution is correct the comma head does not form in that location and all of the rain will shift to eastern Missouri and fast.

ONLY the NAM model creates this deeper separation. The GFS, European Model, and Canadian model all don’t separate the flow enough. So, we have to then go with this 1 out of 4 chance of this happening, or a 75% chance it does not. This would leave areas north of I-70 with only that 25% chance of rain and thunderstorms after that front moves by.

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The severe weather risk then increases on Wednesday from northern Louisiana into eastern Missouri. Let’s see how this all plays out in the next 24 hours. Have a great day and thank you for participating in the weather experience.

Gary

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