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Slight Risk Of Severe Weather Tonight

Evening update at 6 PM:

3

Thunderstorms are now forming! They are timed for later this evening.  A severe thunderstorm watch and a flash flood watch are in effect.

Previous entry below:

 

Good afternoon bloggers, As JD wrote up an excellent blog yesterday, we can look now and see how it is setting up (read yesterday’s blog entry as it was full of great information). There are the usual complex factors that need to be considered for the potential thunderstorm event tonight:

  • Where will the front line up around 7 to 10 PM?
  • How strong will the capping layer between 5 and 10,000 feet be today?
  • Once thunderstorms form, will they track east-southeast or south-southeast with the slowly advancing front?

The National Weather Service has put out a Flash Flood Watch for tonight and this does include the KC metro area. We really need a good soaking right now, so the pressure is on.  Here is the surface map valid at 7 PM tonight: 3

This front is forecast to be in perfect position to provide the focusing mechanism for tonight’s heavy rain event, but as usual there will be spots that have the torrential rain and others that likely will get missed once again. We will be tracking the severe weather and heavy rain potential on 41 Action News beginning at 4 PM today.

4Here is the latest wind damage risk from the Storm Prediction Center.  From the SPC: “TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS NEB AND NRN KS THIS AFTN…FROM SANDHILLS REGION ESEWD TO WRN FRINGES OF OUTFLOW/DIFFERENTIAL-HEATING ZONES LEFT BY MORNING MCS ACTIVITY IN KS AND NEB. INITIAL MIX OF SUPERCELLULAR/MULTICELLULAR MODES WILL POSE RISK OF LARGE/OCCASIONALLY SIGNIFICANT/DAMAGING HAIL…A TORNADO OR TWO…AND SVR GUSTS. ACTIVITY WILL COALESCE INTO MCS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT…OFFERING POTENTIAL FOR SWATH OF DAMAGING TSTM WIND.”

We will be monitoring this closely. The energy aloft will be strengthening over northern Missouri as we move into this evening.

Thank you for spending a few minutes reading the Action Weather Blog.

Gary

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66 comments to Slight Risk Of Severe Weather Tonight

  • Jerry

    Why does this post not include any kind of forecast? This kills me.

    It simply mentions that storms might form – but gives absolutely no forecast.

    This kind of post stands in such stark contrast to JD’s from yesterday.

    • Dobber

      Jerry, your always so negative. I don’t think it’s any different. What if it doesn’t rain tonight? Will you be back tomorrow to bash JD?

    • AllDay

      Jerry,
      The forecast is in the title

      “Slight Risk Of Severe Weather Tonight”

      Do you want him to pinpoint the exact latitude and longitude of where the thunderstorm will form and track. It’s thunderstorms…you know how it works. There’s a slight risk.

      You just want him to pinpoint an exact spot so you can bash him tomorrow for being wrong.

      common bro get a life.

    • Jerry,

      I almost always write up a forecast in the blog! Try a bit harder to respect our entire weather team! I love JD’s style, but you should know that we have poured ten years into this blog. JD is now doing an excellent job. I rarely leave out a “forecast”. I guess I though it was implied, in my description, in the blog today.

      Thunderstorms will be forming near that frontal zone this evening and there will likely be a western and southern edge. Where will that be? We are identifying it now. Watch at 4, 5, and 6 PM.

      Gary

      • Farmgirl

        Heck, I am thrilled to get a blog post. I was wondering this morning if we would get an update especially since the threat for severe weather is increasing. I got the info I needed from the post and all outlets are calling for a wait and see where it will set-up. Thanks Gary for providing your initial thoughts on where the storms could intiate.

  • Jerry

    Dobber–Based on Gary’s post — what is his forecast?

  • robyn corzine

    Well this was a useless blog. As usual more questions with no answers what so ever. Please let JD do the blog!

    Dobber and Allday do you find this to be a useful post by Gary? If so why? I don’t think Jerry is being negative just pointing out the obvious. And, if there is any personal attack, than you will be banned.

    Gary

    • chris

      Pretty useless post from you..he states everything perfectly..get a life

    • Robyn,

      Please respect our team. It’s ridiculous the lack of respect some of you have.

      Gary

      • robyn corzine

        Why don’t you show the same respect to the bloggers that disagree with you????

        • chris

          Why should he respect someone who is always so disrespectful. Better get some stilts for tonight. It may rain a lot tonight and your little troll legs may not be long enough to walk through the puddles.

    • luvsno

      robyn/Jerry/sam hill……..
      OMG !
      you cannot be serious thinking that your posts do not scream out loud and clear that you are all the same person. I just saw the post on 2020 by sam hill……same thing that Jerry says on here, and robyn. You all are one, very unstable, person.

      Gary did make a forecast…what more do you want. Gary comes here to give us some very important information, and you are still bashing him. You complained that he was only on the 2020 blog, and he comes here, then you start throwing daggers at him. Is it any wonder that he stays away from here ? But then you paid the tiny fee to be able to post on 2020, and then you spew over there.

      Go away little man.

    • BigSteve

      Dear ‘robyn corzine,’ please get a life.

    • Chuck

      What a stupid post Ed, Robyn, MU, etc. Gary’s blog is just fine and informative. While I like JD and think he does a great job too, I have found his blogs recently could use a little brevity. That’s just my opinion. I think some recent blogs are too long, especially when there is explanation of why a weather event didn’t happen. Don’t get me wrong, I think he puts great information out there, and I’m sure some of the weather geeks love every bit of it, and that’s fine. However, I do think I have seen an uptick in the amount of detail and some is good, but too much gets the blog too noisy in my opinion. Just remember, not everyone is the same so neither he nor Gary is going to please everyone all the time, but both of their blogs are just fine most of the time. We all know you hate Gary and no matter what he does or says, that will continue. You have now fixated your anti-Gary fixation on JD, trying to spin that in a positive light, but’s it’s painfully obvious that it’s just more anit-Gary. I wonder what JD will have to do to turn you against him? Certainly, you haven’t seen enough of JD to make a long term decision. He hasn’t been around KC that long or done the blog enough yet. You just love to bash. It’s really sad and pathetic to hear you begging for JD to do the blog daily like a little kid begging for more cookies and milk right after mom gave you a snack after you got home from school. It’s funny actually.

      • luvsno

        Chuck……
        Right on ! Except your last comment. In no way is it funny. He is despicable.
        Ohh…robyn/sam hill/Jerry/muku/Ed……..I just came up with another alias that you can use….Despicable Me !
        Try that one and I think most will agree with it.

    • overlandpark4me

      For something useless, you seem to be spending an an inordinate (look it up) amount of time here. You big silly.

  • Hume-Dude

    I am worried about the southern cutoff. I could really use another round of heavy rain to fill those ponds up! That 1.5″ on Sunday morning mostly soaked in as it had gotten pretty dry again, but did manage to add another 8-10″ in the ponds. About 1/3″ full and need a flooding rain to finish them off, ground still a little moist so perfect time to get a fast 2″ to get some good runoff flowing. I will probably be too far south, but latest HRRR models DO have good activity down here. Just one model we will see…

    • chris

      Might be time to cut a little hay hume lol..that seems to be the trigger for storms lol..we in the winter we call it the lezak leaving town index or something like that for snowfall..i think in the summer we should call it the hume hay cutting index for rain lol..it will be the hhci haha..glad u are getting those ponds full

  • TDeveney

    I really appreciate the service you and your weather team provide with the blog. I enjoy reading it everyday!

  • AW

    Thinking the storms will sweep in in the form of a squall line, hence the only 2% chance of tornadoes… and the 30% chance of hail, and the flash flood watch… with that squall line reaching KC area and expanding into a larger complex. I think supercells will be, initially, in south-central Nebraska, maybe central Kansas…

    New outlook from the National Weather Service hints at a wetter winter between December and March for Kansas.

  • NWS just posted that they are seeing signs of a possible derecho forming. it’s not guarantee but at least be aware of the situation.

  • luvsno

    Exactly what I came here to say…..NWS has most metro counties in the biggest threat for 75 mph winds ! Check put their Facebook post …

    US National Weather Service Kansas City Missouri added 2 new photos.
    Have made some changes to the severe weather threat for tonight. Conditions are becoming more favorable for severe storms to develop over northern KS late this afternoon and then form a bowing line of storms that accelerate eastward as it moves into northwest and west central MO early this evening. There are signs this bowing line of storms could evolve into what is known as a “Derecho” or widespread, long-lived, straight-line wind storm. The upper right hand panel of the first graphic shows the highlighted region which has the greatest threat for winds in excess of 75 mph. We’re not saying this WILL happen but just want to heighten everyone’s awareness of the POTENTIAL and that this would not be your typical severe thunderstorm.

    In addition, large hail and even a few tornadoes are possible. To add salt to the wound very heavy rain and possible flash flooding will be possible mainly along and north of I-70.

    We’ll keep you updated on how this weather system evolves. It would also be a good idea to stay tuned to your local media for weather updates.

    • sedsinkc

      Saw that cautionary language from local NWS re a possible derecho in or near this area tonight…not good. At their strongest, they’re worse than many tornadoes due to their widespread coverage and long life. I better start eating all the perishables in the fridge, just in case…

  • Hockeynut69

    I am in Texas right now and hope everyone gets beneficial rain with no damage. Be safe all and thanks to the whole weather team for the updates since I am on vacation and unable yo be in local area to keep abreast of the situation.

  • robyn corzine

    That typhoon Neoguri looks to be a monster! That is one huge typhoon/hurricane. Okinawa and Japan are going to get nailed big time.

    • Chuck

      Robyn, you should go get on a plane right now to Japan and observe the typhoon and report back to us. In fact, I think we could easily get a little cash from a bunch of people right now to buy your ticket. It’s one way though.

  • smiley10

    For those of you complaining about this blog post from Gary, please give him a break! Gary and JD are two different authors and hence, their blog posts are going to have different voices and styles. Yes, it’s natural that some people will prefer JD’s posts and others will prefer Gary’s posts. That is why this blog has multiple authors posting updates on it. At least this team takes the time to update the blog regularly, which might stop happening if there’s too much criticism. If you have questions about someone’s post or think it is lacking important information, please consider asking questions about it in a respectful, positive manner. I guarantee Gary and JD will probably be a lot more apt to engage with comments and answer questions if the messages are presented in a positive manner.

    • mowermike

      smiley10,

      Good post, very true.

      Ed with all the screen names is the problem. Why KSHB allows him to post is beyond me.

      Look at the mess on here today. All caused by one blogger. Not much discussion on here any more.

      BTW…JD does do a very nice job on his blogs. Thank you. They all do and I appreciate them very much. I just don’t comment like I use too.

      • Pete Capone

        MowerDobber, DobberMike, (same IP address = same person). Take a look in the mirror if you want to know the problem. You’ve been exposed several times now as a liar and fabricator of information. You’re on here with your alter-ego stirring up the blog all the time. “I just don’t comment like I use too.” Yes MowDobs, you do comment like you USED to – on all of your screen names. Too bad they’re all under the same IP address. #EXPOSED

        • Dobber

          Your such a rube. We are in fact 2 separate entities….. Go pack go

          • robyn corzine

            Mike why do you get so upset when someone makes a valid critique of Gary? Just curious as to why you always run to defend your man? It was not a personal attack on Gary and yet here you are stirring up trouble. Go back to the pay to play with Gary blog. Thanks.

            • Dobber

              It ain’t mike babe.

            • Chuck

              It’s because you rarely to NEVER make a valid critique. You questions his personality (nothing to do with weather), you put offensive words in routinely, you do not objectively disagree with anything he says, but rather do your best to present yourself in a negative, nasty, condenscending tone that has NOTHING to do wiht a VALID CRITIQUE. You claim you get attacked when you disagree with the LRC or Gary’s weather information. Disagree all you want. It’s your right. It’s not your right to be a complete A Hole on this blog. THAT is THE problem. So, quit pretending and hiding behind words like valid critiques. You are so full of it crap it smells through the computer.

  • ssb710

    Is there a cap in place still?

  • Drought Miser

    I like Gary and the NWS confidence in tonight’s storm’s. .. I would be hard pressed to issue a flash flood watch under a perfectly blue sky!!

  • Drought Miser

    Gary said he’ll go more in depth at 5:17 forecast…I’m lookin forward to that one

  • SmithvilleMom

    Kudos to Gary and the full weather team. I have been a blog lurker for years and have enjoyed the comments from many and the stories from those in the KC and Lawrence areas and beyond. Loved those from the teachers and all the armchair mets. My boys who are now late teens/early 20′s are also hooked on the blog and have enjoyed watching the LRC evolve. They love to coincide the LRC with their farmer grandparents as there are occasional agreements. This is an amazing forum for learning and for sharing what each of us experience in this very large metro area in real time weather. I cannot count how many hours I’ve been hooked on the blog during snow storms! Thank you to those who contribute to a positive, healthy debate and to the full team for their visible contributions to the blog as well as all those behind the scenes “real” work that is unseen by many.

  • Drought Miser

    Ummm Gary,
    99% chance wowowow!!!! I like that forecast I just wish the Bullseye was just a bit to the west!!!

  • Hume-Dude

    Gary’s estimated precipitation map has large bullseye just east of KC metro, maybe TR in Chillicothe will luck out this time. I noticed his map did not include my area, had a sharp cut off near northern bates county with .01-1″ amounts there but nothing as far south as Vernon county. Just one forecast,but if this HRRR is right the entire area will get a significant line of storms. Interesting to see how it will play out, you never know!

  • Drought Miser

    For those with Twitter accounts it’s a great way to stay right up to the minute with the Storms, I was cautious of Twitter at first but it’s a great communicator during Severe Outbreaks, JD answers pretty quick on there if you have a question or concern.

  • Hume-Dude

    Anybody know a good link to see an RPM model? I can’t seem to find one that works, maybe this darn iPad isn’t loading them right …….

  • robyn corzine

    Thanks for the update! I feel safer now! If the KC metro gets missed tonight then we will end up being in a drought. My summer forecast will be 90% accurate.

    JD does an excellent job. He will make a great chief met.

    Gary you look like one giant hotdog with that outfit lol.

    • Dobber

      Does you apartment complex have storm shelters Miss corzine? If not, mr Capone will share his closet with you.

  • Emaw

    The best model right now (outside of Kate Upton) is radar.

  • luvsno

    Oh yes, I forgot to add Pete to robyn – sam hill – Jerry – muku – Ed -and on and on and on

    KSHB is there NO way to get rid of this troll ??
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
    I hope and pray that there is not any destructive winds tonight.
    Has anyone ever experienced a Deracho anywhere ? Has Kansas City metro ever had one ? Scares me to think it may come in late when a lot would be sleeping. Would the tornado sirens go off ? I don’t have a weather radio, nor do I have a smart phone.
    Guess it will be a late night in this 2 story house….downstairs !

    • Weatherwatcher

      Hey Lvsno,

      Good comments. I couldn’t agree with you more. The thought of continuing to put up with this character (with all the different names) is becoming quite tiring. Surely, something can be done about him/her/it.

    • overlandpark4me

      “What a shame that a few bad apples have to spoil a good time for everyone by breaking the rules.” -Otter

  • terrydsnowy

    severe Thunderstorm watch is now out for the kc metro area until 1am.

  • Drought Miser

    Drought Miser reporting live from Merriam Ks… here we are in almost mid July and we are under a Severe Storm Watch what in the world is going on with this wacky weather!!!

  • luvsno

    Gary just now said on Facebook that severe thunderstorms have developed ..but he didn’t say where. Hold on Nelly, it’s coming !!

  • chris

    If you look on the radar it looks like the cell southeast of lincoln nebraska is building southwest and there are cells forming in central kansas..i bet that all fills in and we get a squall line of very high winds

  • Emaw

    The line up in Nebraska definitely looks like it’s going to hold together, but will the storms out in central Kansas steal some of its “thunder” so to speak?

  • stl78

    Some nice storms with high winds rolled through the council bluffs ia vicinity a little while ago. Nice storms headed to the s and e.

  • overlandpark4me

    Twitter Dot Com /MilburnWeather

    Posted a couple pics of the storms firing up in Salina.

  • Jeff in St. Joe

    Looks like we are about to get hammered.

  • Jrock

    Hopefully this Derecho spells the end to Robyn & Jerry. A 2×4 right through their heads!!! Great forecast Gary!!!

    • Dobber

      They will never disappear, I don’t mind Jerry, he’s constructive in his criticism, always has been.

      • luvsno

        Dobber…..
        Wow !you just did a big flip-flop about Jerry……..I think he has turned you.

        Dobber
        July 7, 2014 at 12:13 PM ·
        Jerry, your always so negative. I don’t think it’s any different. What if it doesn’t rain tonight? Will you be back tomorrow to bash JD?

  • Emaw

    Jrock’s post is ridiculous and needs to be removed immediately!