Evening update at 6 PM:
Thunderstorms are now forming! They are timed for later this evening. A severe thunderstorm watch and a flash flood watch are in effect.
Previous entry below:
Good afternoon bloggers, As JD wrote up an excellent blog yesterday, we can look now and see how it is setting up (read yesterday’s blog entry as it was full of great information). There are the usual complex factors that need to be considered for the potential thunderstorm event tonight:
- Where will the front line up around 7 to 10 PM?
- How strong will the capping layer between 5 and 10,000 feet be today?
- Once thunderstorms form, will they track east-southeast or south-southeast with the slowly advancing front?
The National Weather Service has put out a Flash Flood Watch for tonight and this does include the KC metro area. We really need a good soaking right now, so the pressure is on. Here is the surface map valid at 7 PM tonight:
This front is forecast to be in perfect position to provide the focusing mechanism for tonight’s heavy rain event, but as usual there will be spots that have the torrential rain and others that likely will get missed once again. We will be tracking the severe weather and heavy rain potential on 41 Action News beginning at 4 PM today.
Here is the latest wind damage risk from the Storm Prediction Center. From the SPC: “TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS NEB AND NRN KS THIS AFTN…FROM SANDHILLS REGION ESEWD TO WRN FRINGES OF OUTFLOW/DIFFERENTIAL-HEATING ZONES LEFT BY MORNING MCS ACTIVITY IN KS AND NEB. INITIAL MIX OF SUPERCELLULAR/MULTICELLULAR MODES WILL POSE RISK OF LARGE/OCCASIONALLY SIGNIFICANT/DAMAGING HAIL…A TORNADO OR TWO…AND SVR GUSTS. ACTIVITY WILL COALESCE INTO MCS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT…OFFERING POTENTIAL FOR SWATH OF DAMAGING TSTM WIND.”
We will be monitoring this closely. The energy aloft will be strengthening over northern Missouri as we move into this evening.
Thank you for spending a few minutes reading the Action Weather Blog.