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Sleet & Snow On March 2nd

Good morning bloggers,

Snow began falling Saturday afternoon and evening, and then when the “real” radar echoes formed the precipitation types changed.  The sleet should be no surprise as we have been discussing this possibility for days. The shocking thing is that it was still sleeting heavily in areas with temperatures near 5°.  The sleet/snow line set up right over Kansas City near I-70, so it will be interesting to see snowfall totals north of this line.  Here is the 3 AM observation at KCI Airport, the beginning of what will likely be the coldest March day ever recorded in Kansas City’s weather history:

Screen Shot 2014-03-02 at 3.05.30 AM

Here is the graphic I showed a few days ago:

2

Let’s see where we end up by the end of the day. The main storm is still approaching and new areas of precipitation should grow with Kansas City near the northern edge.

New areas of precipitation are growing southwest of Kansas City……..I will finish this blog soon….

Gary

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131 comments to Sleet & Snow On March 2nd

  • Dobber

    Bbbbbust

    • Yes, but it was one of the scenarios. Let’s see what happens today.

    • sagebrush

      Gary,…thank for your efforts during this system. It’s been helpful to me as I’m in Asia about 12 hours ahead of KC and I saw your post EARLY this morning…i’m very interested in the storm as I hated to leave it to my family to deal with…and unlike a lot of the bloggers, I am NOT disappointed at the snowfall totals. But I understand and often agree that more is better and more fun when it comes to snow! Snow is tough call.
      I only wish the cold temps had gone elsewhere, too! Thanks again to you and your team for all your efforts!
      PS…73 here.

  • Freeze Miser

    I’m already lamenting trying to thaw out my van for Church today. The wood stove is banked up and keeping everything toasty inside though. I’m going back to bed.

  • stjoeattorney

    gjollpp

  • turbokai

    OK, going to go doze off to MST3K’s “The day the earth froze.” If anyone needs a good laugh by now, go check it out on YouTube.

  • RNkc

    Just trying to decide on driving home after working all night… are the roads ok so far?

  • Kcchamps

    how much more snow could we get Gary?

  • Kcchamps

    “http://www.crh.noaa.gov/wxstory.php?site=eax”

  • packfan

    With there being less snow will that help the warm up get here quicker?

  • Kcchamps

    local on the 8s just said 3-5″ for today for independence

    • The radar certainly looks intriguing. This will be either a very exciting morning with a comma head of snow moving our way, or we will be just north of a heavy snow band. There will be a northern sharp cut off line. I should be able to point this out and forecast it during our 7 to 9 AM newscast.

      • Kcchamps

        thanks Gary. and the radar returns from the south-west seem to be heading in a north-easterly direction?

  • Farmgirl

    Heavy sleet in La Cygne. Heat pump is working hard.

    Gary, after this band of sleet moves through are you indicating that the precip shuts off to the south and those north of I-70 get a few more inches?

  • Freeze Miser

    Well, I’m up. If anyone goes out, I’d like to hear road conditions. After a big bowl of oatmeal I’m going to start getting the vehicles de-iced.

  • dpollard

    Amazing, I’m not sure I even have 1″ here in Blue Springs. This is the gut wrenching feeling I wanted to avoid again. But, inevitably it is going to happen here every year at some point.

  • pfcpat2

    Since last night at 11:00 pm, Lenexa has not received any additional snow. Total snow so far is only one inch!! Where is all that snow we are supposed to get?? I’m disappointed.

  • masquith

    MODOT has the highways pretty clear from Liberty to Children’s Mercy. Only spots that were slick seemed to be where pretreatment was laid down. In the neighborhood, you could feel when my tires broke through the sleet layer.

  • Dobber

    Bbbbbust lol. There’s a bunch of sleet out here

  • dpollard

    This has the potential to be a top 10, if not top 5 bust of all-time for snowstorms since I have lived in KC the past 25 years. I think the one storm in 1999 where some forecast 10″-16″ with 4′-5′ drifts and we got an inch or so, that to me is the #1 bust. Columbia got nailed and all the way up to Chicago. I so was filled with rage that I had to write out my feelings on paper and then drove around trying to decide if I would take a road trip to get my eyes on the snow that I wept for. I decided not too. I may have to go back and read what I wrote to help me process this time around. I used to have each stations forecast from then too as a reminder of the incredible bust that that storm was. I need to head back to bed. Hopefully, this is just a bad dream.

    • kstatewildcats44

      #1 bust of all time: dubbed the “super snowstorm” by local media because it was supposed to hit on Super Bowl Sunday, 2004 I believe…. 1 foot of snow forecast. Light rain led to less snow on the ground when it was over than when it began. Total snowfall: -2 inches.

  • kellyinkc

    looks like the sleet won…..

  • dpollard

    Did anyone in KC get several inches of snow overnight? Please someone tell me in the viewing area that you got 3″-5″ already. If not, Mother Nature just started looking like the Wicked Witch of the West. “I will get you my pretty”! Hahahahaha,and rides south on her broom taking the snow with her.

  • kellyinkc

    looks like maybe 2 inches of frozen whatever. I bet there was a warm layer up above. Main thing is we got some moisture.

  • dpannell

    yahooooooooo!!! BUSTED!

    • Farmgirl

      Let’s hope the second half of the storm goes poof too! We are suppose to get 2-3 more inches this afternoon in your area and mine. I hope not. Perfect amount of sleet on the ground.

      I got quite a bit of frozen drizzle coating everything on the farm. Frigid, but kinda pretty and so much better than trudging through snow.

      Now to get to Monday with temps slowly warming up. I’m ready for the 40s and 50s.

  • jayhawkX

    I just went out to get my mother from work in Gardner. The roads are… Crunchy.

  • kellyinkc

    NWS is about to downgrade the warning to a advisory. BOOOOOO! LOL

  • jayhawkX

    They just took our warning away! We are now only advised with 1-3 inches possible.

  • Hockeynut69

    The grocery stores won this battle. On the bright side, it should be easier to hit the 50′s by the end of the week with less snow pack. Does anyone know if they make sleet throwers?

    • kellyinkc

      That is why I did not fuel the snowblower ahead of time. Weather rule #1 is to look outside.

  • craigmac

    Isn’t that band in Okla panhandle going to move toward the KC metro area?

  • Hockeynut69

    Please be sure to check on your pets, the elderly, and anyone else that may need to stay warm. And could one of the bloggers please check on terrydsnowy, he will need a lot of therapy after this.

  • PaolaWeatherNewbie

    The snow was supposed to be through the day today!! Why are people calling it a bust? Seriously, the chance was for stuff to be coming all day. Granted, it is going more south than north, that would be a bust. I still look to be in the realm of snow if it actually would stop RAINING!!

    What’s the deal with all of the freezing rain Gary?!! We have sheets of slick ice and sleet is mixing in, but it is raining with a single digit temps!!!!!!!!

    I never had the forecast for rain! It was sleet of snow, but how is it raining????

    How long do you think before this turns into snow?

  • yewtrees

    It now appears that the warm up trend into 50s and 60s begins this weekend. We might see the light at the end of the tunnel!

  • snowplowman

    Should probably update JD’s website video. Still showing 10plus inches

  • Fredd

    Epic Fail.

    The weather is fickle and sometimes it just doesn’t do what the “model” or “ensembles” say it is going to do.

    Lots of disappointed people this morning…especially those in the weather forecasting field….and Terrydsnowy…

  • Hockeynut69

    Paola- Not the 10pm newscast there was an area of 6-10″ forecasted. I live near Liberty and it was in this 6-10″ range. I see maybe an inch on my driveway, so yes that is a bust because it is weakening and staying south. Forecast is a bust but personally I am glad. I am ready for Spring.

    • PaolaWeatherNewbie

      Hockey – Yea, that is what I was saying. In the north definitely more of a bust when they were forecasting so much snow. The models had started the storm moving south, and I guess they were right, it kept coming south. I which it had gone further south with all of this freezing rain!! I don’t mind the snow, the ice is horrid!

      • PaolaWeatherNewbie

        *wish, not which.

        I shouldn’t be on the computer so early in the morning…can’t type worth a hoot.

  • Hockeynut69

    It also appears that the NAM once again is the MAN when it kept totals low. Back to drawing board, GFS!

  • stl78

    Lol…looks like 3-6 was a bit high

  • Taxman

    Gary – This is exactly why you get trolled so hard by your critics. You posted a graphic from a few days ago like that was your “official” forecast. Your last forecast was for 100% of the metro to get 4″ or more. Not 15%. Not close. You went back to your crutch of finding whatever forecast you made over the last few days to fit what occurred.

    K7/K10 area was in the 10+ red bullseye last night. We got maybe 2 inches at the absolute most.

    • Sorry Taxman, but I disagree! I am not trying to save face here. The forecast of high snowfall totals is not going to happen, but what I posted is valid. I didn’t go back on any crutch. Sorry if you feel that way. Look at the big picture. Yes, the forecast will likely be way off on the high totals. I am not hiding! I am just showing you what the potential for this storm was for us. And, the sleet cut into the totals.

      Gary

  • glennkw

    we got about 3 inches in platte city

  • rkcal

    The pitchforks will be out today, and deservedly so. In Gary’s (and all other weather forecasters’) defense, the sleet factor was discussed throughout the build up to today, and always a possibility. In comments above, Gary does say it is a bust. Live and learn.

  • Freeze Miser

    If Morton ever needs someone to shovel salt out of the mines, I have now had training. The sleet on my driveway was easy to move.

    Anyone been out on the roads yet? I’m interested in conditions.

  • stl78

    Looks like this thing slowed down and that strong cold front pushed it south. Thoughts Gary

  • OlatheMatt

    A-well-a, everybody’s heard about the bird
    Bird, bird, bird, b-bird’s the word
    Papa-ooma-mow-mow, papa-ooma-mow-mow
    Papa-ooma-mow-mow, papa-ooma-mow-mow

  • rc

    It isn’t a complete bust yet, as there is more coming. If it is a bust, thank goodness it is. I don’t get you people wishing we would get deadly storms that kill people and animals.

  • Fredd

    Here is one of the biggest issues I have is this:

    Last night at 10:00, JD continued to show a graphic of snowfall amounts here in the Kansas City metro. The map showed widespread 6-8 inches of snow with a pocket of 10+ over Johnson County.

    I am surprised that map wasn’t adjusted when it was realized that the snow/sleet line was setting up over Kansas City.

    Then JD tweets: “I want to go back and see how many times I said “the sleet will undercut snow totals” yesterday.” #trustmygut.

    JD should have done exactly that! Trusted his instinct! In fact, every weather forecaster should! At 10:00, he should have realized the issues, revised the forecast, apologized to the viewers and then went on.

    However, now the team can say: we are surprised by the totals, but we said all week the sleet could lower the totals. Then why make the map or graphic….because, people don’t read forecasts or listen to forecasts…they look at graphics!

    All over Kansas City, people saw the graphic and assumed, professional weather guys are saying it is going to happen. Fancy graphics with big numbers…

  • Fredd

    I find it highly ironic people seemed to hear the “6-10 inch” part of the forecast yesterday, but failed to hear “sleet may undercut it” JD’s tweet.

    Because you ended the weather forecast with the graphic showing 6-10 inches, and promoted the weather map here on the blog all day and on the KSHB website.

    Also, you didn’t say that it would undercut the snow totals by 4-8 inches…

    Your best forecast was on Thursday, should have stuck with it, but everyone got caught up in the “hype” and the need to put out “maps.”

    • Thank you Fredd, and for the suggestions, but really this is just going to go down as mostly a miss on our snowfall forecast. We will miss one once in a while. I just hope everyone can take this into perspective, and we will discuss what happened later on today when I get some time. For now we are on the air after very little sleep. Let’s see what happens with this final band.

      Gary

      • kiwifruit

        Sounds like sleet coming down here in Westport this morning still.
        This was obviously a difficult forecast given that Gary couldn’t find an instance ANYWHERE IN THE WORLD where sleet has fallen at 5F. So while the data may have been pointing that way a little, it is clearly so rare that even the best meteorologist would be second guessing the data… At least that’s my take on it anyway…

  • dudelove

    Ya, I don’t buy the sleet undercut the snow total (well at least the 10+ that was predicted) because we didn’t get that much sleet either. The precip totals were wrong (not just snow) and those few bands on the radar aren’t going to give us much else. I live in the 10+ forecast area and I can still see my grass!

  • Skylar

    Getting a few snowflakes right now, this is the most I’ve seen since yesterday afternoon! I would’ve been fine with the sleet if it wasn’t so loud. Did anybody actually get a full sleep last night?

  • Freeze Miser

    You know, if we hadn’t had hopes of a lot of snow the big news would be sleet at these temperatures, a nice little snow that follows, and then the bitterly cold wind chills especially for March.

    Okay Heat Miser, time for you to pull the switch and let the transition to Spring begin! (not that I won’t stir up a nice cold front from time to time so we can have a nice thunderstorm)

    • Freeze Miser

      I meant my comment about the hopes for snow as a positive one regarding the interest level in what has and is happening. I didn’t want anyone to think I was fussing!

  • syncro87

    For those curious about road conditions:

    I just drove from Liberty to Lee’s Summit, Hwy 291, getting off work overnight. 7:20 am ish.

    Rt 33, the back way from Glenn Hendren to 291 was decent. Covered in a lot of places so you had to take it a little easy, but nothing like I expected (worse).

    291: There is a moderate amount of hard packed snow/ice, mostly in the left lane. There were a lot of areas where the highway was 75% clear and 25% snow. Some areas were 75% thin packed snow with intermittent ice beneath, and 25% clear. Varied in between those extremes depending on where I was. Traffic was virtually nonexistent for most of the way, so I was able to drive 50-ish mph most of the way, sometimes 55. I’m from the northeast originally, so used to snow driving, but I’m fairly cautious and not one of these boneheads in SUVs driving 15 mph too fast for conditions. Alternately, I don’t drive 25 everywhere biting my nails.

    Once I got into Lee’s Summit, things were slightly worse than up north. The ramp from 291470 continuing south, where it becomes 470 heading east and 291 splits south, was ok but not great. I had to take it 40-ish there speed wise. The major LS streets such as Tudor and Scruggs were not as good of shape as 291 but not bad overall. 80% hard snow packed with some ice underneath, but not deep at all. Maybe 10mph speed reduction from normal would be prudent.

    Again, traffic was very light, so the roads seemed a hair better than they are.

    I hit some light freezing rain about half way home for about 5 minutes of the drive, which was odd since it’s so cold outside. My defroster was pretty useless while moving at 40mph+, but it wasn’t heavy enough to really accumulate.

    Neighborhood streets in my area of LS, near Scruggs and Todd George, are untouched and probably covered in an inch or so of crusty icy snow. No problem getting around, though.

  • Cacti51

    It is still freaking sleeting in Olathe right now! :( Obviously it sleeted over now big disappointment but I thought it was supposed to be all snow today?????

  • k10k7

    Gary,

    You mentioned this morning on the newscast that you didn’t know if it has ever happened where it sleeted with such low temperatures. I could not find anything on line, but would be interesting to know just how rare this was? It is sleeting right now in NW Olathe.

  • CityofPrisons

    I am usually one of the weather folks’ biggest defenders at work, etc., when everyone talks about meteorologists being “wrong 75% of the time and still having a job”, etc. I myself would take warm or even hot weather any day of the week over what’s outside right now… But my deal has always been: “If it’s gonna snow, then BRING IT ON!! BURY US! Don’t bring that weak stuff in here!!” Anyhow…

    This time, I must say that I am a bit disappointed in all the area meteorologists. I live in Leavenworth, and our area has been in either a 4″-8″, 5″-9″, or a 6″-10″ snow band forecast for the past day plus. The sleet line was supposed to be to the south of us.

    Most of what fell seems to be all snow, with a little sleet on top of what’s on the ground outside. I have like… TWO inches of snow (an whatever) on the ground. I would venture a guess that this is about all she wrote for us.

    I realize forecasts have to be made off of model data and such, and that no one is perfect all the time. In addition, a lot of the weather guys were saying this storm is not typical. So yeah, I get it. Mistakes happen. Just a bit disappointed that the forecasts weren’t any better. Heck, even last night, JD Rudd was still showing the 10″+ bulls-eye on the map, and saying schools would likely be closed Monday. Then you wake up to… Oh joy, hardly a thing. Kinda takes the wind out of your sails, so to speak. (Altho, schools might still cancel due to brutal cold.)

    Anyhow, Gary, I tried to go easy on you. You’ll have plenty of people giving you a hard time the next week or so, I am sure. Including your ‘ol pal Jack Harry, I’m sure!

  • McCabe58

    Ohhhh Gary give it up.. You guys absolutely blew this one. Yes, the sleet did cut the totals down drastically, but like fredd was saying you were showing that high snowfall total map LAST NIGHT. Chalk it up as a loss and move on. Warmer weather is on the way I hope? (Btw that’s one of the few times you’ll see me say chalk lol… Felt fitting though since ku showed their true colors once again last night hahahaha!)

  • winterfreak

    Biggest bust I’ve experienced. The thing that got me is that everyone stuck to tjeir guns despite the fact that the writing was on the wall. Miserable cold and sleet won out.

    • sedsinkc

      You must be young. Busts like this were frequent around here until the last few years. We’ve gotten spoiled by how accurate snowstorm predictions have gotten lately.

  • f00dl3

    I should have kept with my 1-2″ idea :)

    Gonna go out and enjoy the weather today – it’s a winter wonderland, and roads don’t look bad at all.

  • Deb

    Good Morning Gary and fellow bloggers!
    My location is Raymore MO just south of the Cass/Jackson county line.

    Currently 7/8 degrees on my thermometer. Sleet just starting hitting windows, again, with what looks like WATER drops on the windows, too! Just a few, but how can that be? It is only 8! Maybe a few very small snow flakes mixed in for good measure. ;-)

    Sleeted all night here. I know this because it kept waking me up as it hit the bedroom windows.

    More coffee . . .

  • f00dl3

    Next Tuesday may be near 80!

  • davidmcg

    2 maybe 3″ here in McLouth. I am glad the sleet cut into the snow and the front pushed the rest away. 1°F here and falling, windchill is -19°F. We had a structure fire up here that started outside in the dog house and spread to the residence, a total loss on the residence. Our fire dept.’s are all volunteers out here and they were out in that weather trying to save it but couldn’t. A rough time out there today deep snow or not.

  • erock89

    Gary
    How much more snow are we expecting?

  • Hockeynut69

    I can’t wait for this cycle to repeat in 57 days, we can issue a moderate risk for severe weather and flooding, then get mist. I know the mist undercut the severe weather potential.

  • davidmcg

    So the weather forecast for this storm….. First, for days Gary said it would be hard to pinpoint. He did say sleet may undercut the total and that the push of cold air would cut into it and push it off to the east. But then Gary and every other meteorologist from Manhatten to Columbia posted those graphics of 6+ inches across that path. They also showed a graphic with the cold air and wind and we definitely have that. So was it a bust? Not really, but visually because of that graphic definitely. That should not have been the last graphic that they had on the screen with every newscast. But ya know, if you prepare for the worst and don’t get it, all is good. If you don’t prepare and it arrives, well your just up creek and no paddle.

  • Fredd

    Sleet & snow reports coming from Olathe right now. This thing isn’t over… Some are being too quick to attack. Go ahead & copy/paste this!

    Thanks, and I will. However, I respectfully ask that you don’t say I am “attacking.”

    You can shout the heavens about sleet and snow reports coming in from all over the Kansas City metro. But, we all know that we aren’t going to see 6-8 inches of more snow today. You just showed a weather graphic (another map) that indicated that people in the Northland will get an 1 inch and more snow will fall to the south (Clinton, etc.)

    The overall forecast was bust, GL said it was, and unless we see huge snowfall amounts today…we aren’t going to get to the “big number” you stated over the past few days.

    I understand that I may be calling out your mistakes, but in a high profile job, you are only as good as your last forecast…and your last forecast was for a snowstorm for Kansas City. Take heart, every forecaster made the same prediction, and you will have a chance to hit the next one out of the park.

    • Fredd

      Please allow me to clarify: The snowfall forecast was a bust, but they hit the nail on the head regarding temperatures. Nice job!

  • craigmac

    Every forecaster missed this from the NWS to local meteorologist.
    They all said the same thing too. Upper level temps could make things sleet and there will be a thin line where they will be a good amount snow. All of that is true and is happening.

  • WeatherfanKC

    I love the weather discussions here. For Lenexa we only got about dusting of sleet/snow overnight. We had a car parked outside overnight that was cleaned off at 10pm and then this morning it had very little of anything on it. Weather in Kansas City this year has been difficult to forecast, but I think all the weather people wiffed on this one. Ready for spring now!!

  • spaceotter

    There looks to be a fair amount of precip W, SW of us still.

  • f00dl3

    This isn’t even really significant sleet. I remember when I was in college my parents went on a rare vacation to Hawaii in March 2006 we had a tornado outbreak 2 days after we left, that following weekend we flew back we had over 2″ of sleet. There’s not even a half inch of sleet out there. You can’t say “significant” sleet cut into the totals. Not really a valid excuse. The precip just missed us.

  • Farmgirl

    I don’t think the forecast is a total bust. All depends on your location.

    I had sleet in the southern half of the viewing area as predicted, even within the window of when the sleet was to arrive. It is bitterly cold and phase two of the storm is now approaching.

    While we didn’t wake up to a winter wonderland, this storm is most incredible from a weather perspective. And while Gary knows I am not a snow lover, I am fascinated at the twists and turns this storm has taken and I believe she has a few more trick cards up her sleeve.

  • Alex Pickman

    A whopping 2.75″ here in St. Joseph. Really interested to see the amounts just to the south of me. They were in a heavy band all evening! Oh well, you cant be right all of the time!

  • blueflash

    It kinda goes back to what we always believed…..its hard to snow when it gets this cold. Exceptions may occur, but they are rare.

  • Deb

    So I just read all of this morning’s blog. I hope all the bloggers who only want to criticize Gary are done now. This is weather for goodness sakes! How old are some of you people? You have never seen a storm forecast change, or a storm underperform compared to a forecast? Where are all the complainers when a storm over performs? Like the last big snow in February. We were not suppose to get a foot of snow at my house, but than the upper level low came over and snow reintensified and boom . . . more snow!

    This is what is so fascinating, and admittedly frustrating, about weather . . . it’s behavior is not 100% predictable. Forecast are guidelines as to how to prepare, then make up your own minds. In a very large metro area I feel that Gary and NWS and other outlets need to keep people informed/safe. If a storm makes you buy extra bread and eggs and milk, then make French toast! And enjoy it!! Use some powdered sugar in your mixture, maybe a tablespoon, it makes it really good!

    Oh, and by the way, some of us are still in a storm. I still have sleet and freezing rain hitting the windows. Wierd weather we are having.

    More coffee . . .

    • Fredd

      Thanks Deb.

      That’s one of the problems with today’s society. We don’t want to hold people accountable when they make a mistake, we want everyone to feel warm and fuzzy and to know that “everything will be okay.”

      When you post a weather map indicating large snowfall amounts and it doesn’t happen, you should be held accountable. They are the professionals and people rely on their forecasters. I have friend of mine who just lost 1000s of dollars this weekend in the plow business. Should he just be happy about it?

      As for the last snowfall, I was here giving congratulations on a nice forecast then.

      As a college educated professional, my boss expects me to do the job right every time, if I make a mistake, my boss calls me out on it. The difference is, my job doesn’t have a camera and thousands of viewers!

      Now, I am off to make french toast for my kids. I will use your advice and get back to you, I hope it is good as you say!

      Come on SPRING! :)

      • Deb

        @Fredd,
        Sprinkle in some cinnamon in the mixture, too, if you and kids like that sort of thing. We do, and it is yummy! Be sure to whisk the sugar in well to keep it from clumping.
        Enjoy!
        Deb

        • Fredd

          @Deb,

          Will do! My kids are bit sad this morning, but my middle daughter just said: Spring started yesterday, I am tired of the snow!

  • smithvilletiger

    3″ just south of Smithville lake. Guess we were lucky. I’ll take whatever we can get out of this next band of snow.

  • mac

    You and everyone thankfully missed this. Wish u would get the snow that’s coming south. Hate this stuff. And you seem to love it. Don’t really get it. It’s just very dangerous and causes wrecks and many to work long hours. Keep this crap up your way. Actually you and snow are very annoying

  • Treecutter

    BUSST???!!!! No my friends, sometimes the facination of weather to put all of us under her spell. this is known. Most importantly, and what I will take away from this storm is FRANKIE, the delightful and passionate met from Nova Scotia (I think that’s where he’s from) Priceless!

  • winterfreak

    Rafar trends take the rest of this south so what you have now is it.

  • Treecutter

    Darn it! I should have read “sometimes the fascination of weather PUTS all of us under her spell”
    See what I get for trying to be clever?

  • OlatheMatt

    So….the NAM was right in the end…..

  • batman

    POOF! Gary I agree with most of the bloggers putting that graphic up now is a JOKE! You,as well as others, were calling for heavy snow. We didn’t receive heavy snow not even close. It’s not like there was 1-2 inches of sleet that cut the totals way down. Just man up and say we blew this one. It was a difficult forecast and we blew it and we will learn from it and try to do better next time.

    Oh by the way the “big picture” is that it was a BLOWN FORECAST!

    • kiwifruit

      Batman,

      There are at least two comments in the blog by Gary admitting that the forecast was blown.

    • Packerbacker77

      Batman, seriously why even post a comment such as what you did? What is the point. Or was the point because you wait until someone fails and then are quick to congratulate them? Gary, was spot on with the forecast, if you are illiterate, he described 60% chance of 1-4″ of snow, which I’m sure you have at least 1″.

      Gary, if you are a moderator of this site, Batman appears to be a troll and shouldn’t be allowed to post as I’m sure several “true” followers of this blog would agree.

      • turbokai

        Um, no that was his forecast from a few days ago. While I wouldn’t have worded it that way, I essentially agree with his (batman’s) post. I had a hand slaps forehead moment when I saw that graphic go up too. BTW , I have been a participant of this blog since 2006…love and appreciate the enthusiasm and effort that Gary has put into it…but if we can’t be (respectively) honest when the situation warrants, then what’s the point?

    • Jrock

      He put the graphic up to prove to idiots like you that he predicted 1-4 inches. Batman, go back to the bat cave and spoon with Robin. Bring on spring!!!

  • winterfreak

    Every model not named GFS were pretty damn close to nailing. Many forecasters were quick to point out the strength of the storm and all the moisture feeding into it from the gulf despite the model trends for much of the day yesterday cutting down on liquid precip. This resulted in very little sleet and snow but boy can you feel the cold.

  • jayhawkX

    Everyone give the meteorologists a break… They warned us about the sleet and it’s their job to give us the worst case scenario. We still have snow coming in so it won’t be a glaring bust by the end of the day, at least to the south.

  • kiminpv

    Today’s task. How to get the gasoline out of the snowblower.

    • kellyinkc

      that is why I did not fuel my snowblower. It’s empty.
      Be sure you have Stabil in the gas.

      • kiminpv

        ugh. Hindsight! It was brand new though…..just put it together yesterday so I wanted to make sure she fired up. Ran like a champ.

        Note to self: NEVER trust a weather forecast enough to order a $500, 75 lbs piece of equipment on overnight shipping. I waited till Friday at 3:00 and still got hosed.

        Sure, I knew sleet might cut into the 5″ – 9″ forecast. I just didn’t realize that meant by a factor of 95%.

        As it stands, I could have just bought a broom when I was at the store yesterday. That is gonna do the trick.

  • Deb

    So it looks like still quite a bit of water vapor is still heading our way?

    http://www.weather.gov/satellite#wv

    Looking out the window update -Bigger snowflakes now mixing in with the sleet.

  • LarryA

    NW Lawrence received 0.6″ of snow / sleet accumulations as of 7:30 AM. Melted precipitation is 0.25″.

  • Deb

    This will be a repeat post, as I forgot the quotation marks on the link. Looks like water vapor still heading our way?

    “http://www.weather.gov/satellite#wv”

    And looking out the window, bigger snow flakes mixing in with sleet now.

  • NCSUguy77

    There’s no denying this was a complete and utter bust. It was not the thermal profiles, it was not the sleet, and it was not that it missed us– it didn’t happen and didn’t develop as expected– period! It’s weather and it happens–regardless of the models. There was 0.27″ of precip at KCI since yesterday– that’s not even HALF of what the mean precip on the ensemble models showed yesterday for this time today. Even Thursday models were trending toward more, as in “https://scontent-b.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ash3/t1/1620756_613851988669448_1501124893_n.png”– but it just didnt happen. Who knows the opposite may happen this afternoon and we get more additional than whats anticipated.
    **Constructive criticism—- I do agree with Fredd. While the potential for “Snow-magaddon” or “snow bust” was high, the meteorologists should have begun to back down on totals at 10/11pm because there was nothing on radar near the Metro that came anywhere close to producing significant snows; even if it was a 30:1 snow ratio at the time with ZERO sleet. I challenge all the local meteorologists to review those radar images at that time, and either justify why the totals were kept or learn that some times its best to cut your losses. Otherwise it appears that its wish(casting)for a forecast to match in the end and that goes for the NWS as well.**

  • zophini

    Thank God this was a bust. Now let’s t the Sun out an 80 degrees.

    • NCSUguy77

      I love snow, but after this winter– I SOOO cannot wait for the warmth of the sun, the smell of growing grass, and the warm gentle spring breeze!

      • sedsinkc

        Amen to that. This unprecedented cold for March is the last straw for me. Makes me want to move to a warmer climate.

  • kellyinkc

    yeah, I like snow but am ready see green grass.

  • Joseph Tay

    It’s okay, at least everyone is stocked up on Milk and Bread

  • Bobaloo

    What are the roads like? I’m in Des Moines right now and would like to drive home to KC today. MODOT makes it look like that would be near suicidal, but all the comments here make it sound like the roads aren’t bad. Any info would be great!

  • luvsno

    New blog is out

  • HeatMiser

    I don’t get how people don’t see this. Everyone got this one wrong on snow amounts, from NWS to Accuweather to TWC to all the local meteorologists. So what does that tell you. It tells you that we don’t have the technology or ability sometimes in meteorolgy to see what’s coming. All the afore mentioned entities, Gary included, made the best call based on all the data they had. Gary didn’t “blow it” in the sense that he missed something he shouldn’t have missed. He missed it because everyone missed it because that’s what it looked like it would do with all the available data. The sleet thing was worry the whole time, until near the end when it looked like it would be more snow. So, mabye the meteorologists can look back at the data and learn something new for future application to similar weather forecasts. Gary, I think most people blasting you are more disappointed in not getting the snow and they are just taking it out on you.

    • Deb

      You are so right, Heat. Well said.

    • f00dl3

      NAM had it right all along. Not all of us got it wrong. Only caviet was the fact that during part of the day the atmosphere cooled a bit more than expected. But in hindsight, common knowledge would dictate that with warm air advection, warm air advects, thus if the atmosphere is marginal for snow at best already, after WAA starts it’s going to warm further. All the models showed the warm nose lifting back north.

  • kiminpv

    I think the answer is this. We need to move to Florida or San Diego, where a busted forecast is mostly sunny instead of sunny.

  • Cacti51

    So is it gonna snow at all or are we just going to be stuck with thiswarm layer aloft and all sleet?

  • NCSUguy77

    This really bothers me– channel 8/2 trying to save their forecast touting sleet won the battle. It did NOT win! The storm just didnt develop! KCI only had 0.27″ of precip! “http://w1.weather.gov/obhistory/KMCI.html”

  • NotTheDroid

    Gary and Team,
    You’ve talked about the historically cold “high” temperature today (March).

    It is also rare for all Kansas City winters to have a day where the average between the high and low temps was zero or below (e.g., High of +8 degrees F, Low of -10 degrees F = avg of -1 degrees for the day). It would be amazing for March 2nd/3rd to have an average high/low temp below zero. Technically it wouldn’t be the same date, but it would be within a 24 hr span (24 hr temperature avg from morning of 2nd to morning of 3rd).

    Could you speak to how rare this is in KC? Doesn’t happen once many winters anyway.