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Severe Weather Risks

Good morning bloggers,

There is a slight risk of severe weather over western Kansas later today into tonight, and then there is an increasing risk of severe weather later this weekend into early next week farther east. Before we go into the bigger storm system, we have two chances of rain to discuss. The first one is arriving now with scattered showers and a few thunderstorms possible as you can see on this 6:50 AM radar map:

1

There is a disturbance moving across eastern Kansas this morning, and then a much stronger disturbance is approaching the area tonight.  We still haven’t broken the ice and Kansas City is falling farther behind 0n rainfall. Even this mornings rain is concentrated on the Nebraska border and moving east.  Today’s disturbance is actually moving through a ridge and associated with a  weak warm front moving through. Tonight’s wave of energy is much stronger and we will be monitoring it closely for thunderstorm development to our west.  Thunderstorms and rain will be likely during the first half of Thursday, but again are we in the weakest spot for rainfall? It certainly looks that way to me right now.

The better chance of heavier rainfall will arrive this weekend as a storm approaches:

1

This weekend storm will be getting caught in a blocking pattern aloft. I discuss this block on the blog at www.weather2020.com.  Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog.

Gary

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48 comments to Severe Weather Risks

  • Dobber

    Looks cold and wet

  • frigate

    As long as its wet…I’ll be happy…lets hope for once we get some widespread and beneficial rainfall.

  • terrydsnowy

    TWC is and has been saying that Sunday very stormy severe weather day here!

    • Yes, the potential for severe weather on Sunday is looking more impressive. This is a very strong storm, but it is also caught in a developing blocking pattern. Let’s see how it looks on today’s model runs.

      Gary

      • chris

        Just as long as you keep the high for sunday in the 80s gary..i would rather spend my birthday on sunday enjoying the 80 degree weather versus the 60s

  • Hume-Dude

    Looking at the models I am concerned that tonight/tomorrow round of storms will fall apart before it reached us and won’t redevelop until it passes the area completely. Basically I am guard for any way this might miss us, because frankly if there is a chance for the system to miss us it WILL happen. MAYBE this weekend storm will actually produce some good rainfall, but until I see it materializing this is just another boy crying wolf to me…..

  • frigate

    Totally with you Hume-Dude…its happened so many times, that pattern of falling apart/splitting and refiring to the east has almost become the expected scenario anymore. Maybe, if we don’t talk about it, we won’t jinx it into happening! LOL

  • f00dl3

    How can we be so sure about Sunday when we can’t even be sure about today. Today’s rain was only 20% but it sure looks like a wave of energy has occasional rain/thundershowers tracking into our area and it may be wet on/off all day long.

    Latest GFS shows quite a different picture – and NAM shows the initial storms forming Saturday morning forming on top of us, which would mean the severe risk would likely be well east of Kansas City on Sunday.

  • Henley

    Sorry…way off topic here but I’m having my driveway repaved (500 Ft) but the old railroad ties used for support are jacked up, rotted out, etc. Any idea who could replace these or put in some type of support?

  • mgsports

    But the Temps need to be near 80 on Sunday for any bad Storms here and TWC needs to update their highs to that for here. Cantor said yesterday watching to see if need to up Torcon for Sunday.

    • Pete Capone

      TORCON, like the rest of TWC, is a joke. All it is anymore is the storm chaser & global warming alarmist channel.

  • Hume-Dude

    I am hearing the phrase ” CUT OFF LOW” regarding next week’s system. Gary – do you see this weatherman’s woe actually setting up here? It would be fantastic to get a cool wet week, I have an acre of seed waiting to germinate and I know others out there have seed waiting to pop but its just been too dry lately. Three days of wetness outta do it!
    BTW, what’s up with this “opposite” pattern? It rains on days no rain is forecasted( face it, this wave was not forecasted yesterday ) but it refuses to rain when it is forecasted with HIGH probabilities. What are the models “seeing” , or not seeing that is confusing them? Moreover, do we depend too much on powercast type solutions? They are wrong ALL THE TIME ! IS SLUGERRR messing around with the computer models?!?!

  • Drought Miser

    Hopefully this upcoming weekend setup up favors us for more rainfall but limited Severe weather lordy lordy we need some rainfall our deficit is getting ridiculous this time of year it adds up fast folk’s!!!

  • Hume-Dude

    I know I will take some HEAT over this statement, but here I go. Somebody ( TWC ) HAS TO bring the topic of climate change to the forefront of discussion! I am sick of hearing about it myself even as a believer in the phenomenon , but those of you who just plain don’t get it need to be bombarded by the message until you understand this is a CREDIBLE threat to the planet and humanity as a whole. The climatologists studying this ARE SMARTER THAN YOU armchair climatologists out there!! They live and breath this stuff, know the research and there is a reason 98% of them ALL AGREE on one thing : MAN IS CHANGING THE CLIMATE, PERIOD . Anti-climate change folks all say droughts and floods have happened since the beginning of time, DUH!! Doesn’t mean we can’t make them worse, or bring up sea levels by the rapid glaciation melt off. If you were sick and the doctor told you had a disease, would you tell him you knew better? Would you tell him people have been getting sick since the begging of time, so nothing is wrong with you and you aren’t sick. Would you wait until you were about to drop dead before doing something about it? NO, NO, NO, none of you would. So, why not listen to the credible threat of climate change? Will you wait until it is too late?

  • Hume-Dude

    50 years ago NOBODY believed smoking caused cancer, can you believe that? It seems so easy to grasp now that we have had endless campaigns to bring about public awareness. Those of you choosing to believe the climate is not changing are those same people who continue to smoke and tell themselves it isn’t hurting them, EVEN with unlimited amount of PROOF suggesting otherwise. Ignorant people will always make ignorant decisions I’m afraid, so try to educate yourself on the FACTS, NOT RIGHT WING B.S. Facts either, cause we all know they are not using science in their argument because science is proving the case for climate change and proof through evidence means nothing to those people.

    • Drought Miser

      Yes i believe climate change is here to stay and we need to act now before it’s too late!!!

  • AW

    Then why are people forecasting the next 50 years to be below average temps (with the exception of 2015 and el nino years)? Did people just suddenly stop using coal and oil? No. The Earth’s climate goes in cycles and we have no say in it AT ALL! We can use all the fossil fuels we want with little change in what’s going to happen. And, by the way, all those cold waves and the below average temps for 2014-2058 have been forecasted since 2008! We do very little to affect temps in our environment.

    Farmers Almanac:
    24th-27th. Rain, thunderstorms roll through Kansas, Missouri.
    28th-30th. Severe weather Plains; cold air sweeps in, brings freeze conditions.

    Not sure about freeze conditions but seems about right.

    • Hume-Dude

      AW – global warming was a poorly worded construct. It will and has been getting warmer, especially in the polar regions. You are 100% wrong about our ability to burn unlimited fossil fuels, is big oil paying you make a statement like that? I don’t claim to be 100% right on the matter, I do claim that we need to start WORKING on it and pretending it isn’t happening is preventing that proactive change from occurring. We may very well be dead when the real S hits the fan, but I just had a daughter yesterday and would her to have a world to live in thank you very much. How selfish of us not to consider the damage we COULD POSSIBLY be doing for future generations to deal with , just plain IRRESPONSIBLE!!

      • jasonatt

        Why brow beat everyone when there are ignorant people and will always be ignorant people? Is this a science or a religion? If it is a science present your facts, propose a solution, and work with decision makers. If this is a religion then by all means go door to door and tell people how stupid they are.

        In the meantime do what you think is best. I got a fuel efficient vehicle, upgraded my HVAC, got more efficient windows, built a compost barrel, working on the rain barrel…

    • f00dl3

      Where are you getting this info the next 50 years will be cold? Last I heard they expect this crazy El Nino this summer to cause 2015 to be the warmest year. EVER.

      • AW

        You two obviously didn’t read all of what I said. Notice the word “little” as in not much effect. Yes, acid rain and warmer temps are a result of us, but the Earth is still getting colder as a result of the cycling of the sunspots on the sun. I also said,”… With the exception of 2015″ because I know there’s going to be an El Niño that year, or at least fairly certain of it.

        “http://redicecreations.com/article.php?id=13459″

        Read it and WEEP!

  • calikufan

    Hey Gary-

    I’m curious to see how you do the green, yellow and red lights for severe weather. Is it like the SPC where there is a certain probability that severe weather will occur in the viewing area or is it more subjective?

    Thanks,
    Bill

  • What is not a known fact is by how much the Earth’s atmosphere will warm in response to this added carbon dioxide. The warming numbers most commonly advanced are created by climate computer models built almost entirely by scientists who believe in catastrophic global warming. The rate of warming forecast by these models depends on many assumptions and engineering to replicate a complex world in tractable terms, such as how water vapor and clouds will react to the direct heat added by carbon dioxide or the rate of heat uptake, or absorption, by the oceans.

    We might forgive these modelers if their forecasts had not been so consistently and spectacularly wrong. From the beginning of climate modeling in the 1980s, these forecasts have, on average, always overstated the degree to which the Earth is warming compared with what we see in the real climate.

    • Hume-Dude

      Correct, many , many unknown variables. Could be 100% wrong. What if they are right? We get no do-overs with this. Once balance is tipped, forget about it, matter of fact we may already be way to late to reverse course. If we all agreed to do something about it today and entire world worked together it might still be too late. We just reached the most atmospheric carbon ever recorded in history, so it takes time to reap what we have sown. No one can accurately say exactly what will happen, but to not be proactive about this is senseless.

      • You can’t make costly mistakes on peoples lives based on “what if”. And the current political climate of today says we are not allowed to even consider the what if on maybe possibly it’s not as bad as speculated.. that’s is dangerous..

  • f00dl3

    Latest HRRR models show all the rain basically in the same places it was this morning. KC stays dry, again, like a broken record the same pattern repeats it’s self. Re-ocurring cycle. It sucks.

  • j-ox

    Not for sure about global warming per se, but pretty sure the Earth has never seen the likes of us and what we’ve done over the last 100+ years through industrialization.

    Last I heard was that we were ‘due’ for heading toward an Ice Age…so at least we have that going for us if we are indeed warming the planet through our belligerent practices and reliance on fossil fuels. But, what I will say is that folks need to wake up and realize that humankind can make a difference…over time.

    It seems that the medical world is waking up to realizing that our diet actually has an effect on our bodies…I mean come on…this is the dark ages we’re coming out of, right?

    • Dobber

      The earth is pretty old ……lots has happened

      • sedsinkc

        Sure. But modern humans were not around for 99.9999% of what happened, which included 5 mass extinctions in the past 600 million years and many smaller extinctions. Human civilization is about 5,000 years old plus or minus. The Earth is about 4.5 billion years old. So 5,000 vs 4,500,000,000

  • Fred Souder

    Hume-Dude
    You are in luck. There are several agencies that have already brought climate change to the forefront of discussion. TWC is devoting more and more programming time to it. Interestingly, the founder of TWC John Coleman has chastised them roundly for this.
    Greenpeace has also really stepped up the message. Strangely, their co-founder has since started a new environmental group claiming that greenpeace no longer ascribes to anything scientific but is instead purely political, and their stance on global warming is non-scientific.
    NASA has as well (and NOAA). Former climatologists, meteorologists, and engineers within NASA have since “come out” against the current political position on Global warming that NASA has taken.
    So, HUME, what we need to do is silence all these critics. In particular, we need to silence the engineers and people with heavy backgrounds in thermodynamics. They keep questioning everything, and engineers overwhelmingly believe that the link between man produced carbon dioxide and global climate disruption is either dubious or not a problem.

  • f00dl3

    Latest euro looks to have us on the cold side of the low with heavy snow possible? “http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/ECMWF/12/US/ecmwfUS_850_temp_144.gif”

    • Drought Miser

      Gary has a low temperature next weak near 32 degrees ..like 33 to be exact so yes snowfall could be in our cards just like early May last year!!!

  • batman

    Remember when it use to be a struggle to cut the grass in the spring becasue we had rain every 3 days or so and the grass would grow like crazy because of all the rain. I miss those days.

    Gary you said you were the home fo the most accurate forecast at 5. I’m sure it was just a slip of the tounge and wishfull thinking.

    Can’t wait for Sunday! Hopefully we’ll get some nice strong storms and tornados for a change! Of course no loss of life.
    The drought continues and continues and continues.

    • chris

      Remember when you used to be a troll..oh wait nevermind you still are. Are you obsessed with gary?

  • Drought Miser

    Ummm Folk’s we have a Red light situation setting up this weekend please tune back in to 41 action news meteorologist Gary Lezack for all the latest news and information!!!!

  • Emaw

    6-10 next Tuesday and it’s all due to global warming.

  • ksloco

    seems like the best forecast out here is what we are living, expect more of the same. Keep an eye on the sky in the rare case it actually thunders and does something strong. Otherwise keep watering and prepare for a frost. Now, turn our computers off and go spend time with your friends and family, forget their was even a man called meteorologist or chief, About all they can tell us is what kind of clouds are in the sky right this moment and that their is a red line or blue line or dry line going some direction. They are worth a listen but go on and live

  • lenexa_loon

    why are so focused on Sunday? Gary just forecast heavy rain for tomorrow morning. HEAVY RAIN!!!!

  • kellyinkc

    this climate change stuff is all based on a computer model. look at the NAM etc. How many times does it change? Yet that climate change model is absolutely infallible.

    It’s all about money and power period.

  • ksloco

    rain to the north, rain to the south, thunder to the east

  • f00dl3

    Ground clutter is going nuts on the KEAX radar. Usually does that when our atmosphere is very strongly capped.

  • chris

    Can feel the dew points going up

  • batman

    Thosw who don’t believe that we humans are doing some damage to the planet are the same people who still believe you a person can pray that their gay go away. WAKE UP FOLKS!

    The red light is on for Sunday and it’s only Wednesday. That will jinx it for sure! Time to break out the helmets and the hockey gear to prepare for the mother of all storms on Sunday! I bet dollar to donuts that we get jack squat. It will go south,north,east and west as usual.