Severe Weather Risks Next Week

Good morning bloggers,

Today is Kansas City’s sixth day in a row with measurable precipitation.  There is a disturbance moving across the plains this morning that will bring cloudy skies and a few periods of rain showers, and possibly a thunderstorm.  It will be a cool day with highs in the 50s.  The weekend looks fantastic with highs in the 70s, and then we have an interesting set up next week with a stalling front. Let’s  take a look.


This first map shows the dewpoint temperatures rising with a moisture surge into the plains from the Gulf of Mexico.


The dewpoints are modeled to go up to 70 degrees in Kansas by Monday evening. This will be the fuel for thunderstorms, a few of which will likely be strong to severe.


Tuesday Setup:

The warm front, the red line, is going to be a very long front stretching from a developing surface cyclone centered near Pueblo, CO Tuesday afternoon.  The front will extend all the way to near New York City.  South of this front, the humidity will be high and conditions will become favorable for strong to severe thunderstorms:


I dashed in the black line showing where I see a severe weather risk on Tuesday.

Wednesday Setup:


An upper level storm is likely going to move out over the Rocky Mountains and out into the plains around the middle of next week.  This will increase the winds aloft, and increase the chance of severe thunderstorms that may be a bit more significant.  The set up is increasingly looking a bit stronger and I dotted in the black line to show where I see a severe weather risk around next Wednesday.

We will go a bit more in-depth with our analysis in the next few days.  For now, let’s track two disturbances coming our way today with areas of rain showers and a few embedded thunderstorms.  Temperatures will be in the 50s all day with thickening clouds and rainfall amounts of under 1/4″ expected.  Next week will likely be much wetter.

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