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Severe Weather Risks, Most Likely Southeast Of KC

Good morning bloggers,

A strong storm is developing as it crosses the western states and intensifies over the plains. The Storm Prediction Center and the National Weather Service are wording our severe weather risks strongly. And, I don’t blame them, as there are many ingredients seemingly coming together. But, remember, it is this years pattern. Near KC, it has been anything but typical and this storm fits the mold.  Here are the risks:

day2otlk_0600This is the Day 2 severe weather risk on the left, and this is Day 3 on the right.  Kansas City is placed in the slight risk with the enhanced risk in the Kansas City television viewing area on tomorrows risk, and then the risk shifts east on Saturday.

day3otlk_0730Colder air will blast back into the plains on Saturday as this storm matures and closes off.

As I said, many of the ingredients are coming together to produce the conditions for the Storm Prediction Centers risk areas, but something is still off in our area. I am not going to say there is no chance of severe weather. If anything does develop, if a cumulonimbus cloud can break through the cap, then we may have one big supercell to track west and northwest of KC Friday evening. The chance of this happening, however, seems quite low to me.  Let’s take a look at the surface forecast from last nights GFS and NAM models:

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Now, if one would believe this 100%, then there is no chance of severe thunderstorms in our area at all.  On the GFS, nothing develops. And, on the NAM that thin line forms, and then it falls apart an hour or so later. Now, we have to see how this trends. There is a lot of energy coming in.

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Again, just looking at the surface pattern and this upper level energy, I do not blame the SPC and NWS for having some strong wording. I, myself, will cover this set up meticulously. But, I lean strongly in the direction of it not quite coming together in our area. We had a set up similar to this a couple of weeks ago and all of the thunderstorms formed way southeast of our region. We already have a history of this.  Now, when this pattern returns in 47 days, this is when it should light up over our area due to the late May and early June seasonal difference to the pattern.

Kansas City Weather Timeline:

  • Today:  Mostly sunny, warm, and windy. South winds 15-30 mph and gusty. High:  82°
  • Tonight: Increasing clouds becoming cloudy. Windy with south winds 10-25 mph. Low:  67°
  • Friday:  Periods of clouds with a chance of a few weak showers or thunderstorms.  The chance of measurable rain is 50%.  High:  76°
  • Friday Night:  Partly cloudy with the wind shifting to the west and northwest.  Turning colder with a 20% chance of a thunderstorm.  Low:  47°
  • Saturday: Periods of clouds and colder with a 20% chance of showers. High:  49°
  • Sunday: Cloudy with a few snowflakes or raindrops possible in the morning. High:  45°

We still have to monitor Sunday closely for where the upper low redevelops as it begins moving east. There is still a possibility of some snow for the third Sunday in a row.

Thank you for sharing in this weather experience. Go over to Weather2020.com and click on the blog over there to join in the conversation. Have a great Thursday.

Gary

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