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Severe Weather Risk Saturday Night

Good morning bloggers,

It is a beautiful morning after a wet and cloudy Wednesday.  Some cumulus and stratocumulus clouds will likely develop again as we move through the day, but it is nice this morning.  The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) doesn’t have a risk for Saturday night yet, but I think they should, especially over parts of Nebraska and Iowa. Let’s take a look:

1

The dew points have been over forecasted by the models so far this season, but with south winds a wet Oklahoma and Texas to our south and the longer days we will likely see the dew points rise to near or above 70 degrees in spots near by on Saturday, as you can see above.  But, again, the dew points have struggled to get this high so far this season and it would be a limiting factor if they stay under 65°.   And, there is a strong upper level system, very negatively tilted, that will be dropping/digging into the the Missouri River Valley by Saturday night as you can see below:

2

The energy from this negatively tilted storm will be passing by Saturday night into Sunday morning with a cold front being dragged across our region by Sunday morning. This has to result in an explosion of strong to severe thunderstorms in a zone across north central Kansas, across eastern Nebraska, and into northwestern Iowa Saturday evening. These thunderstorms would then likely try to form into an MCS (Mesoscale Convective System) and track our way around midnight Saturday night, give or take a few hours.  We will have to monitor this development for a line of very strong thunderstorms, possibly severe in our area.

Here is a surface forecast from last night’s GFS model:

3

The NAM model came out and trended into digging the storm a bit harder. The dew points forecast are lower than the GFS model and this limits the instability a bit. The low level moisture is the fuel for severe thunderstorms. Let’s see how it sets up on Saturday. In the mean time we have three great days of spring weather ahead of us.

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog. Let us know if you have any questions or comments and we will go over all of the details on 41 Action News at 4, 5, 6, and 10 PM tonight.  Have a great Thursday!

Gary

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37 comments to Severe Weather Risk Saturday Night

  • https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=XU98T_vdXg4#t=10s This video is a chase that I did not want to broadcast,but here it is….Chasing storms ‘IS’ a deadly game…I think I’ll leave as said

    p.s. There is a second part . :)

  • mgsports

    It’s not because of the Tropical Storm and at the moment the Weather Channel/SPC isn’t saying anything about it. Hopefully no Long Track Tornado’s that stay on the ground for a while because have no open land in KC area with just Fields.

    • Can you ‘please’ rewrite what you’re trying to say,or try to reframe from posting. It’s a difficult morning.

    • bob osoborne

      here in western KS as you call it (Olathe) I see lots of open fields. Where are you not seeing fields? Do you know how much farmland and fields are in KS? Where do you get this crap (AGAIN) about long track tornados? You’re frigging dangerous in your posts. You go against anything Gary or anyone here with decent met knowledge says. Yeah, Tush misspelled a word but it doesn’t send out a dangerous message like mg does. But then most of the posters understand not to bother with mg’s gloom and doom for every flippin’ rain storm.

      • The Quiet Man

        Bob, we can clearly see your agitation towards MG’s post, but bear in mind that some folks in our midst are challenged. I’m not going to elaborate on that as I think you’re intelligent enough to figure it out. If you were or your children were challenged, I would expect you would hope others excercise a higher level of patience towards your attempts to communicate. Comprehension and communication are more difficult for some folks, but sometimes it’s not their fault – know what i mean?

        • BLAH BLAH again…Wise up

        • bob osoborne

          I don’t look at mg as being challenged. I don’t know if he is or not. I look at him as being irresponsible in posting about long track tornados when the chances of that happening are extremely slim.

  • Drought Miser

    Gary,
    My wife and I our headed east tomorrow to New York City should we be concerned about tropical storm Andrea?

  • mgsports

    What I meant is East of 35 from 159th Street to just past Liberty,MO most of the Lands have Homes,Commercial or so on them.
    I never said they will be any Long Track Tornado’s but just don’t want any if theirs is any open fields.
    TOR:CON – 4 northeast KS, east NE; for Saturday at the moment

    • bob osoborne

      Ok but I think maybe you should just post general things about weather and not so much even mention long track tornados. Remember that some people come here and think every post is made by somebody with real knowledge and not just an opinion. Right or wrong on their part to be scared, it’s never a good idea to start talking about long tracked or EF 5 tornados when there is barely a chance of it.That’s all I wanted you to think about, ok?

  • Fat_Louie

    Ugg, when is it going to end, I need some pool weather

  • mgsports

    Lezak bought maybe good chance of seeing bad Severe Storms that would mean all types could happen.

    • bob osoborne

      Ok, mg, I tried.

    • The flow aloft and timing would support strong thunderstorms. A few could be severe with damaging winds the main threat. It is still two full days away, so let’s see how it sets up. The tornado risk would be very low in our area.

  • Emaw

    Mg, Gary stated above that he thinks the storms that may fire to our northwest on Saturday would turn into an MCS event for us late Saturday night. I don’t think MCS type systems for us have much of a tornadic threat, usually just straight line winds if they become severe.

  • Emaw

    What you talkin’ ’bout Willis, I’m a dude !

  • KUweatherman

    Hey bob osborne! I ran a poll after our small debate yesterday on whether or not cities should continue with their tests during thunderstorms. Results are not surprising.

    “http://i.imgur.com/JzvG6dD.jpg”

    • bob osoborne

      I assume all those 90%ers were afraid of lightning LOL Honestly, I see the point if there’s alot of storm activity. But when it’s basically heavy rain, then why not? Again, we live in an age where people are either ignorant of severe weather or traumatized by the idea of a typical spring storm. When I was growing up no one panicked when it was going to rain. We assumed there would be lightning and some thunder. I’d love to go back to the days when we could expect a refreshing thunderstorm (because it wasn’t winter) , continue to advance warning technology to at least the extent it is in Europe, and not label everything severe.

  • chopperHD

    Bob,

    While I do agree that during a thunderstorm and most certainly after what has transpired recently in OK, the siren should be postponed, unfortunately, we live in a knee-jerk….panic full time. At the very mention of a snow or ice storm during the winter, my boys and I watch (and make fun of) the folks at the grocery store buying like they are preparing for armageddon…..I am with you on the fact that in my humble opinion, we, as a society, over react to everything. Should any real major catastrophy ever happen…folks are in real trouble

  • Emaw

    Nanny state !

  • lsmowatcher

    I miss the days when this was an actual weather blog where people came on to speculate about weather and what might happen in the near future. When people posted helpful information and links so that people who didn’t know much, but were interested in learning could actually learn something new.

  • bob osoborne

    The sun is out, there isn’t much to teach about today. The blog has been weather related today.

  • Dwxtracker

    Gary,

    Curious as to why you say the SPC doesn’t have a risk area outlined for Saturday? Was this written before 2:30am? They have had a ‘Slight’ risk for all of E NE, NE KS, SW IA, NW MO, and a 30% risk area highlighting NE KS and NW MO all day long.

  • Emaw

    Gary, did anybody send you any pictures of the cold core funnels that were up in Leavenworth county last night ?

  • luvsno

    It’s Friday….NO blog today ? Is Gary on vacation now that Kalee is back ?