Good morning bloggers,
It is a beautiful morning after a wet and cloudy Wednesday. Some cumulus and stratocumulus clouds will likely develop again as we move through the day, but it is nice this morning. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) doesn’t have a risk for Saturday night yet, but I think they should, especially over parts of Nebraska and Iowa. Let’s take a look:
The dew points have been over forecasted by the models so far this season, but with south winds a wet Oklahoma and Texas to our south and the longer days we will likely see the dew points rise to near or above 70 degrees in spots near by on Saturday, as you can see above. But, again, the dew points have struggled to get this high so far this season and it would be a limiting factor if they stay under 65°. And, there is a strong upper level system, very negatively tilted, that will be dropping/digging into the the Missouri River Valley by Saturday night as you can see below:
The energy from this negatively tilted storm will be passing by Saturday night into Sunday morning with a cold front being dragged across our region by Sunday morning. This has to result in an explosion of strong to severe thunderstorms in a zone across north central Kansas, across eastern Nebraska, and into northwestern Iowa Saturday evening. These thunderstorms would then likely try to form into an MCS (Mesoscale Convective System) and track our way around midnight Saturday night, give or take a few hours. We will have to monitor this development for a line of very strong thunderstorms, possibly severe in our area.
Here is a surface forecast from last night’s GFS model:
The NAM model came out and trended into digging the storm a bit harder. The dew points forecast are lower than the GFS model and this limits the instability a bit. The low level moisture is the fuel for severe thunderstorms. Let’s see how it sets up on Saturday. In the mean time we have three great days of spring weather ahead of us.
Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog. Let us know if you have any questions or comments and we will go over all of the details on 41 Action News at 4, 5, 6, and 10 PM tonight. Have a great Thursday!