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Severe Weather Risk In Europe

Good morning bloggers,

I am in Boston, MA where it is raining this morning.  Let’s look at today’s upper flow, the transition into a hotter pattern potentially developing next week, and we will look at some potential rain chances in KC.  But, let’s begin with the severe weather risks in Europe and the United States.

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There is a moderate risk of severe weather over eastern Europe today.  A MDT risk has been issued for extreme NE Italy, NNW Slovenia into S Austria where improved conditions are seen on the local high-resolution models. Various models are simulating an enhanced threat for training convective cells extending across the western part of the risk area which should lead into an excessive rainfall threat, as well as a lot of hail accumulation in places. More than 100mm could result with the maintaining storms which will be fueled by high moisture from the N Adriatic region as well as strong lift associated with an approaching wave. Heavy orographic rainfall will also be an additional source for excessive rainfall threat. Further east into SE Austria and NE Slovenia, a bit higher threat for isolated very large hail warrants an upgrade as well.

Closer to home we have this risk today:

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Today’s weather pattern features a summer warm front north of Missouri in southern Iowa.  It is moving north this morning and the risk of severe weather will be concentrating on Minnesota today.

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Yesterday’s high temperature in KC was below 100 degrees for the 1,400th straight day.  The conditions are certainly quite favorable for 100 degree heat in the region, but this streak in KC is likely going to continue at least another few days.  The anticyclone is forecast to grow in strength west of KC by the end of the week:

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As the anticyclone strengthens to the west, a “monsoon” disturbance will move over the Rocky Mountains and out over the plains. You can see this wave of energy by 7 PM Thursday (8 PM Boston time, since that is where I am right now).  It is turning southeast and south and it should be strong enough to trigger showers and thunderstorms, and bring a weak cold front south into the KC region Thursday into Friday.  Look at what happens by next week:

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This map above shows a much larger anticyclone forecast to develop and strengthen over the middle of North America and the United States by one week from today. The closed circle shows the 594 dm line This shows the level at where the pressure is 500 mb, or 5,940 meters above sea level.  Now, IF this actually develops like this latest model run, and it has support from other models, then Kansas City will certainly have a much better chance of reaching that elusive 100 degree mark.

Let’s see how high the temperatures go today. Yesterday was cooler than we had forecast due to the very high dew points.  Today, should inch a bit hotter.  Have a great day, I have to get to my training session at the IBM facility here in Littleton, MA.

Gary

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