Quantcast

Severe Weather Outbreak Possible Today

Good Morning Bloggers,

There is a chance of a severe weather outbreak today.  A moderate risk of severe thunderstorms has been placed over the Kansas City viewing area and I have some concerns that there will be some significant severe weather in our area later this afternoon or evening.

Kansas City Weather Timeline:

  • Now to 4 PM:  Expect it to stay dry. It will be very humid with temperatures warming into the lower to middle 80s.
  • 4 PM to 10 PM:  Thunderstorms will be forming near the fronts, troughs, and dry line.  This will most likely happen north and west of KC and then track our way.  Severe thunderstorms with all types of severe weather are possible initially to our west, then the risk will transition to a better chance of damaging winds after the sun sets.  There is also a chance of flooding with 2 to 3 inches of rain possible where the thunderstorms line up. This could happen closer to KC later this evening.
  • After 10 PM:  The thunderstorms will track to the northeast and weaken later tonight
  • Thursday:  We will see how Thursday sets up. It may depend on how the activity leaves boundaries from todays risk.

Here is the 7:16 AM Surface Map:

5

As of 7 AM, the surface was affected rather significantly from last nights thunderstorms. KCI Airport got hit pretty good with over an inch of rain.  The complex of thunderstorms made it into northwestern Missouri before finally weakening early this morning. This has created conditions more favorable for the severe weather risk to be near KC. I added the risk area to the same map:

6

day1otlk_1300

Here is the discussion from the Storm Prediction Center:

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
   AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM CENTRAL KS TO NORTHWEST MO...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the southern and
   central Plains into the middle Mississippi Valley today and tonight.
   Swaths of damaging winds, large to very large hail, and several
   tornadoes will be possible, especially from northwest Missouri
   across central Kansas to northwest Oklahoma.

   ...Synopsis...
   A broad closed low over the lower CO River valley will move slowly
   eastward to NM/CO by Thursday morning.  Southwesterly flow aloft
   will contribute to lee cyclogenesis across southeast CO this
   afternoon, and the cyclone will develop northeastward across
   western/northern KS overnight as the midlevel trough approaches the
   High Plains late in the period.  A southwest-northeast oriented
   front will remain quasi-stationary from southwest into northeast KS
   and IA during the day, while a dryline will mix eastward to the
   eastern TX Panhandle and northwest TX by late afternoon.  These
   surface boundaries will focus severe thunderstorm development this
   afternoon through tonight, with the more concentrated storms and
   severe threat expected along the front from KS to northwest MO.

   ...KS this afternoon to northwest MO through late evening...
   The surface front will stall today from southwest KS to southern IA,
   and a weakening cold pool from overnight convection should erode
   from west to east during the day (from northeast KS to northwest
   MO).  Meanwhile, a lead mid-upper speed max will eject northeastward
   from NM to central KS by this evening.  This speed max will interact
   with the front and warm sector starting by early afternoon in
   southwest KS, where convective initiation is expected. 
   Boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid 60s, beneath midlevel lapse
   rates in excess of 8 C/km, will combine with daytime heating to
   support MLCAPE at or above 3000 J/kg along and south of the stalled
   front.  Effective bulk shear near 50 kt will be sufficient for
   supercells, though low-level shear/hodograph curvature will not be
   particularly large for most of the afternoon.  The present
   expectation is for initial supercells with very large hail to grow
   upscale into clusters and potentially bowing segments through the
   afternoon and evening while surging northeastward along the front,
   with an increasing threat for damaging winds by mid-late afternoon. 
   The tornado threat is uncertain given the expected messy convective
   modes and rather weak low-level shear through most of the afternoon,
   though embedded circulations will still be possible with cell
   interactions and storm interactions with the surface front.  
day1probotlk_1300_torn

The tornado risk appears to be highest over the biggest drought area in northwestern Oklahoma.  I favor the risk being a bit farther northeast than where the SPC placed it. We have to see how this sets up in the next few hours. Please plan on paying close attention to the weather developments.  Our weather team will be out again in Storm Tracker from 41 Action News. Gerard Jebaily captured a pretty strong tornado yesterday. Let’s see what happens today.

Thank you for sharing in this weather experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.  Go over to the Weather2020 blog and join in the conversation as we share in this weather experience.

Gary

 

Share and Enjoy:
  • Print
  • Digg
  • StumbleUpon
  • del.icio.us
  • Facebook
  • Yahoo! Buzz
  • Twitter
  • Google Bookmarks

Comments are closed.