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Severe Weather Is Possible Later, But It May Go By Dry Again

Good morning Weather2020 bloggers,

  • Wind Advisory Today: Winds will gust to nearly 50 mph this afternoon
  • There is a risk of severe thunderstorms later this afternoon. The window for thunderstorms will open and close fast and many areas near KC may be left high and dry again.

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There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms developing near Kansas City today. The better chance is just outside the 41 Action News KC viewing area over southern Missouri and northern Arkansas. This may very well go past Kansas City leaving it high and extremely dry again.

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This surface forecast shows the strong surface low up near the USA/Canada border with a cold front trailing into northwest Kansas and a dry line over eastern Kansas. These surface boundaries will likely be the focusing mechanisms for thunderstorm development. There is a pretty good chance that a more solid line of thunderstorms won’t form until around 8 to 10 PM tonight as you can see on this sequence of forecasts from the HRRR model:

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This third map shows what finally happens by 9 or 10 PM tonight. A line of strong to severe thunderstorms is forecast to develop and then rapidly take off to the east. As you can see below, this model left Kansas City dry again.

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We will monitor this closely. Have a great day!

Gary

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