Good morning bloggers,
It was a sizzling hot May day on Tuesday. It’s hard to believe that it has been less than two weeks since the rare May snow This map shows the high of 106° at Sioux City, IA, and 101° in Omaha yesterday:
A very weak and weakening cold front will stall and wash out tonight into Thursday. This will limit the potential for thunderstorms. The humidity should increase substantially today and a few thunderstorms may develop this afternoon, most likely near the weakening front just north of Kansas City. Here is the rainfall probabilities map I showed last night:
The dew points will be increasing today and we will have to see if the atmosphere will become more unstable this afternoon for a few thunderstorms to develop. There is a very weak upper level storm also forming near the Oklahoma/Kansas border. For now, we are keeping the chances fairly low. I do expect a few thunderstorms to form and I am just not confident in where the exact locations will be at the moment. This surface forecast just came out this morning and is valid at 7 PM this evening. The best chance of any thunderstorms will be near the front, and it will likely be north of Kansas City.
The Storm Prediction Center has placed risks on days 4, 5, and 6 as you can see on the map. Click on the map for a larger view. The severe weather risk will increase Sunday into Monday as a storm approaches. This storm is the one I had expected in the middle of May and it has been in the forecast on my Weather 2020 site for months already. You can see how this part of the pattern compares to the previous four cycles of the LRC on the Weather 2020 blog by clicking here: This Severe Weather Set Up And The LRC. I will end up being off by around four to five days, and on the forecast that I made 12 weeks ago. This cycle is just slightly longer than the past few cycles, but still in the range of 51 to 57 days. It really is amazing how this next storm is right on schedule and I posted this part of the cycling pattern from each cycle on Weather 2020.
How exactly is this going to set up? We haven’t had much of a severe weather season, but this storm is going to produce some severe weather over a three to four day stretch beginning Saturday way out west.
We will go over the details of the latest data on 41 Action News tonight beginning at 4 pM. Thank you for spending a few minutes reading the Action Weather Blog. Let us know if you have any comments or questions.