Quantcast

Severe Weather In The Sunday/Monday Forecast

Good morning bloggers,

It was a sizzling hot May day on Tuesday.  It’s hard to believe that it has been less than two weeks since the rare May snow  This map shows the high of 106° at Sioux City, IA, and 101° in Omaha yesterday:

1

A very weak and weakening cold front will stall and wash out tonight into Thursday. This will limit the potential for thunderstorms. The humidity should increase substantially today and a few thunderstorms may develop this afternoon, most likely near the weakening front just north of Kansas City.  Here is the rainfall probabilities map I showed last night:

2

The dew points will be increasing today and we will have to see if the atmosphere will become more unstable this afternoon for a few thunderstorms to develop. There is a very weak upper level storm also forming near the Oklahoma/Kansas border.  For now, we are keeping the chances fairly low.  I do expect a few thunderstorms to form and I am just not confident in where the exact locations will be at the moment.  This surface forecast just came out this morning and is valid at 7 PM this evening.  The best chance of any thunderstorms will be near the front, and it will likely be north of Kansas City.

1

day48probThe Storm Prediction Center has placed risks on days 4, 5, and 6 as you can see on the map. Click on the map for a larger view.  The severe weather risk will increase Sunday into Monday as a storm approaches.  This storm is the one I had expected in the middle of May and it has been in the forecast on my Weather 2020 site for months already. You can see how this part of the pattern compares to the previous four cycles of the LRC on the Weather 2020 blog by clicking here:  This Severe Weather Set Up And The LRC.  I will end up being off by around four to five days, and on the forecast that I made 12 weeks ago.  This cycle is just slightly longer than the past few cycles, but still in the range of 51 to 57 days.  It really is amazing how this next storm is right on schedule and I posted this part of the cycling pattern from each cycle on Weather 2020.

How exactly is this going to set up? We haven’t had much of a severe weather season, but this storm is going to produce some severe weather over a three to four day stretch beginning Saturday way out west.

 

 

We will go over the details of the latest data on 41 Action News tonight beginning at 4 pM.  Thank you for spending a few minutes reading the Action Weather Blog. Let us know if you have any comments or questions.

Gary

Share and Enjoy:
  • Print
  • Digg
  • StumbleUpon
  • del.icio.us
  • Facebook
  • Yahoo! Buzz
  • Twitter
  • Google Bookmarks

44 comments to Severe Weather In The Sunday/Monday Forecast

  • yewtrees

    NWS: This period has the potential to be fairly active with a threat for severe weather on Sunday and Monday. Have seen a noticeable improvement in model agreement/timing in the evolution of the next upper trough. The operational ECMWF and GFS are more in sync as they both take on a negative tilt to the eastward advancing upper trough on Sunday. Previously the ECMWF had been faster in moving the trough eastward but the 00z model run has slowed down. A modest 30-35kt south-southwesterly low level jet will advect increasingly unstable air into the region. Scattered mainly afternoon and evening convection on Sunday looks like a reasonable expectation as a pre-frontal surface trough interacts with this low level jet and moderate instability.

  • yewtrees

    “This storm is the one I had expected in the middle of May”

    Today is the middle of May!!! :)

  • mgsports

    Saturday, May 18

    Isolated severe thunderstorms in south-central ND, central SD, central and southwest NE,
    west half KS, west OK, east TX panhandle and west TX from near Childress to Fort Stockton.

    TORCON – 5 west KS-Central and East had it before today; 3 rest of above area
    Sunday, May 19

    Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms in south MN, IA, extreme east NE, east KS, north-
    central and northeast TX, northwest AR, west and north MO.

    TORCON – 3 to 4 southeast MN,
    east IA; 3 rest of area.

    Numerical models differ on the exact position of the surface lows
    in the central US, so confidence in the details above is reduced.

  • jjcoolman

    {being off by around four to five days} . this is so contradictory. one day can make a BIG difference in the kc area, let alone 4 to 5 days

    • jjcoolman

      and {next storm is right on schedule}

    • Yes, but not on a forecast made 50 to 80 days out. I have been much closer on many of my forecasts in that longer range, so this is not one of my better ones, but it is still the storm I expected and it is arriving.

      On a one day forecast, if we are forecasting thunderstorms around 3 PM, and they arrive around 6 PM, that’s not bad at all to miss it by 3 hours
      On a three day forecast, if we forecast snow will begin Saturday morning, but it doesn’t begin until Saturday night, then that 12 hour forecast is still a pretty good one
      On a seven day forecast, if we say snow is likely around next Wednesday, but it happens and comes in Tuesday or Thursday, that would have been a pretty good forecast, but a day off
      On a 50 to 80 day forecast if we say that we are going to have a potential severe weather outbreak around May 12th to 16th, and it comes in May 17th to 21st, but it happens as forecasted, that that 3 to 5 day error is still a pretty good forecast!

      When looking back at the cycles from October to now, and this storm is in cycle 5, I can see how I could have been a bit closer. October 18th and this set up for Sunday/Monday next week compare so well, and you can see the comparison on Weather 2020’s blog. Those dates are 214 days or around a 53.5 day cycle. I did not really spend enough time analyzing the entire weather pattern. When we do in the future, the longer range forecasts will get better.

      Gary

    • One day can make a big difference, and I have been down to one or two days off many times. Looking back on it, and as I just answered in the previous comment, I could have and should have picked out the dates of May 15th to 21st.

  • Jerry

    If a 4-5 day error is to be expected or reasonable in your long-range forecasting, perhaps your long-range forecasts shouldn’t tout a level of precision that you now admit is simply not attainable.

    This was (and still is) the weather2020 forecast for this week:

    Forecast Update March 15th: Severe thunderstorms are Likely between the 12th and 16th of May. An outbreak of severe weather will happen on two consecutive days as a storm moves out of the Rockies and into the plains. A fairly strong May cold front will make it’s way through this entire region with cooler weather likely with dry weather on the weekend of May 18th in northern areas around Kanas City to Omaha. Farther south the front may stall with daily strong thunderstorms that may be severe closer to the Oklahoma border. The weather looks nice on this weekend for Kansas City, Omaha, Des Moines, Wichita, and across Missouri to St. Louis.

    • Jerry,

      I would hope that I can get that 4-5 day error down to one or two days. Forecasting an event down to a series of dates is what I am trying to do. This forecast is not one of my better ones, but when I went back and looked at this weather pattern from the beginning I noticed where I made my mistake. I did this analysis before I went in and wrote the brief W2020 blog yesterday. I did not take into account every cycle, and I did not spend enough time on the forecast before making those calendars. I just went through the previous two cycles and wrote down dates and looked for where the dates matched up in the previous two cycles. I have a good idea of how to move forward with this concept. And, I am certain the forecasts will continue to improve.

      So, this one could have been updated two or three weeks ago and I would have pushed the dates out three or four more days.

      Now, in the next few days we will have a sever weather set-up to analyze. It has been such a quiet severe weather season. It may wake up for just this storm system.

      Gary

      • nofluer

        Have you ever lived in a tropical zone – and you get up in the morning and the air just has that *something* that says if things go just so you are going to get pounded before the week is out? That’s what the air over NW MO was like today. The sky was an indeterminate color, not blue, not gray, not … any color. The air seemed dense – but only visually. If I were at sea and saw such a sky I’d be busy tying things down and checking stowage for loose gear or cargo, and I’d be checking for storm warrnings on my radio!

        And I knew we wouldn’t get rain today… but that sky was trying to call me a liar. :-(

  • tushchaser1

    Not wanting to upset the apple cart, but I believe my question is valid:

    If the weather that you predict to occur goes to the north of us (like in Iowa), the south of us (like in Oklahoma), or to the east of us (STL), does that still count as being accurate for Kansas City? Will you claim that you predicted this storm 100 days ago even if it doesn’t affect the KSHB viewing area?

    If you do claim your accuracy (even if it is off by a few days), how will you ever be wrong? Since you can pick a small or large feature occurring somewhere in the US and relate it to your “cycling” theory?

    I am not trying to be a “troll,” just trying to get a bit more clarification.

    • anshad

      If you are talking about the “Severe Weather Outbreak Between May 12th-16th”, If you look at the weather2020 site, the forecast is the same for Iowa, Kansas, Missouri, and Nebraska. He never specifically mentions KC.

      Gary, I would just stop trying to please the skeptics. The LRC is in its early stages, and the learning curve seems to be getting better. I really don’t put much stock in forecasts over 7 days now, but it is nice to know that you can look at patterns and see when storms will be in the area. I don’t think the LRC was ever a theory with pinpoint accuracy, and I don’t think it is meant to be. According to the bloggers, they expect concrete details on something that we rely on models to forecast any other time.

      I don’t post very often, but this is getting insane the amount of people that love to put someone down for sticking their neck out there.

      So, Yewtrees, is it acceptable to be off a few days over a 100 day period? I would think so, as long as it can be refined closer to the time. All I am saying is this… Grab the maps from each cycle, and see how they line up. I know that it wont be identical, but you will see the same key features. I think this is what the LRC is meant to do, not say that it is going to rain .25 inches at 5:45pm at the Sprint Center, and the severe weather setup that was called for will produce a tornado at 9:15pm CDT at mile marker 16 on 435. This is a general theory.

      Now that I have used my one blog post for the month, I will just continue to watch the people come on this blog and hide behind their keyboards and throw Gary and his team under the bus.

      • Thank you for the post, and you are correct. And, as we move forward, and we have more time to put into the forecasts and updates to the forecasts, I think you would agree that they will get better.

        Anyway, I appreciate the comments and I am not worried about the skeptics.

        Gary

    • Kevin,

      Very good question. “How will you ever be wrong?”. There are many times that we are wrong. We have been analyzing and logging our experimental forecasts made on Weather 2020 since we put that site out there in January. There have been forecasts around the nation that have not been accurate at all. We are learning from those mistakes and trying to get better.

      Gary

  • j-ox

    Gary, are you predicting a dry, avg or moist Summer? Will it be cooler, avg or warmer than avg?

    If you miss a storm by a few days from a prediction 2-3 months ago…I say bully for you. If the storm doesn’t impact KC directly but is regional…I STILL say bully for you. :~)

    • Our summer forecast comes out Monday! We will be using the LRC and other concepts to make the prediction for the next few months.

      And, in tomorrow’s blog I will be asking for blogger summer forecasts.

      Gary

  • j-ox

    While not a forecast, I just want a more avg year, or at least some above avg precip. These last 2 years have been devastating.
    I dig heat and humidity…so a good ol’ KS/Midwest Summer is fine with me.
    You drought predictors are gloomy.

  • Hockeynut69

    Gary please warn your fellow weather team members that Sunday night is the season finale for “The Celebrity Apprentice” on your station. I mention this because this show should take precedence over any interruptions by severe weather alerts while the finale is being broadcast. A later viewing of this episode is unacceptable because rarely does the DVR get the timing down on a delayed broadcast. Also, the results will be posted online from other viewing areas not affected by severe weather and therefore ruining the suspense of who wins. Also, please have KCPL on high alert as a power outage would be devastating as well.

    Sincerely,
    Over the top TV viewer with no life

    P.S. This was only in jest and not meant to be taken serious by anyone. But we all know the complaints will happen if the events mentioned above did occur. Have a great Wednesday all and get out to enjoy this awesome weather!

    • John,

      Thanks for the reminder. The only way we are cutting into the Apprentice is if there is significant severe weather going on. Let’s hope it isn’t happening. But, I am definitely going to keep this in mind.

      Gary

    • UpNorth

      You mean people still watch that cr…I mean show??? Wow.

  • Farmgirl

    Climatelogically speaking one could pick a day next week and say Thunderstorms will form and be accurate 7 days before or after any given date from the third week of May.

    • nofluer

      Did you hear about the supervisor who thought a crackdown on sick leave usage was due because he determined that 40% of sick days were taken on Monday or Friday – ie in conjunction with the weekend?

  • mukustink

    Gary I thought the cycle length was 50-55 days. Now you say 51-57 days to make this fit. What gives?

    • MUKU,

      It has never been under 51 days, and rarely over 54 days. As the season is winding down 51 to 57 days is not a stretch, but likely what the cycle has been the entire time.

      Gary

  • mgsports

    1:36 update
    Saturday, May 18

    Could be the start of a severe weather outbreak. Scattered severe thunderstorms in the TX
    panhandle and northwest TX, west OK, west KS, southwest NE.

    TORCON – 5 southwest KS, northwest
    OK (excluding panhandle); 3 rest of above area.
    Sunday, May 19

    Severe weather outbreak. Numerical models differ, however, on the details of the threat area,
    with the European model somewhat farther east. Scattered severe thunderstorms in north-central
    TX, central OK, central and east KS, extreme east NE, extreme east SD, northwest MO, west and
    central IA, south MN.

    TORCON – 6 central OK; 5 south-central and southeast KS; 4 west and
    central IA, south MN.

  • blue8091

    To the silent many who are reading – of which I’m sure these numbers are many, myself included recently. Please come back out and participate again. You simply have to ignore the rudeness from small and close minded people. I refuse to get upset over the comments being made. There are a lot more of US and we should lead by example – exactly like Gary and the team. We come here to enjoy weather related discussion and we applaud Gary for having the guts to put himself out there like he does with the LRC. The fact that he is exposing us as he continues to work on his theory is a privilege and it’s part of the reason why we read the blog day after day. He’s clearly engaged in the weather and adept at his job. Lately it’s looking like the ugliest part of our community are the only ppl participating and it’s not what the heart of the blog is about.

    Great write up as usual Gary! I’m hoping for a thunderstorm or 2 this week!

  • luvsno

    Are we under norm for precip thus far for 2013 ? (KC area).
    Asking because Johnson CO Ks (Olathe) grass is already showing patches of brown, and I noticed today cracks in ground.
    Is this due to no rain for a few days, or the heat and strong winds since yesterday.
    I hope and pray it is not a harbinger of things to come.

    • Theo

      Yes. KCI and JOCO are below average year-to-date.

      But the drought is over!

      • nofluer

        And lest we forget – There is more to forecasting weather (especially long range) than watching the highs and lows and the pretty clouds going by. The Great Driver of our weather is the Sun… and these days it’s doing some pretty interesting things.

      • mowermike

        “http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DM_midwest.htm”

        The drought is over, yes, for most of the state of Mo. A 100% change from 8 months ago where the whole state was in a major drought.

        Can it get dry again and we go right back into the severe conditions, sure, but, as of May 15th, there are no drought headlines for 95% of MO. including most of the KC area.

  • NastyWeather

    So Gary what do you think about NWS improving the GFS model? Game-changing improvements in the works for U.S. weather prediction

  • Theo

    Jack Smack = Missouri fan that is too tired from hanging all of those championship banners in Columbia.

    Or, disgruntled SEC wannabee that has to get used to being at the bottom of the conference in football and basketball.

  • mgsports

    You can watch it Online or wait intill the DVD comes out for it. You might want them to move it over to KMCI.

  • PILOT MISER

    Any chance that ULL in Ok and North TX generates a few storms up this way this evening?

  • Drought Miser

    Wow just watched one of the chaser’s in Texas catch up to a Tornado on Tornado Ally live nice out in a field large wedge JR was the Chaser!!!

  • Drought Miser

    Sad no one predicted this mini outbreak of tornados going on right now in Texas near Dfw

  • blue8091

    Sure enough…you can see a thin band of storms forming up near St Joe – just off to the west right now near Hiawatha. I’m too far south :( Onward to Sunday! Headed for tornado alley….

    • nofluer

      If you want to nsee what they develop into, just head on up there as they don’t seem to be going anywhere – just ramping up intensity…

  • blue8091

    Considering the nws had the area slotted for slight risk – TX is having a pretty eventful evening in the Dallas and surrounding area. Saw some great footage and now it’s too dark – the severe weather isn’t letting up.

  • RickMckc

    Link to what NastyWeather was talking about above …

    “http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2013/05/15/game-changing-improvements-in-the-works-for-u-s-weather-prediction/”

    This is great news as it will give us even more to debate on this blog in the future!