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Severe Thunderstorm Watch

Good evening bloggers,

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH has been issued for the Kansas City region. This is NOT a tornado watch as conditions just aren’t favorable for tornadoes for a few reasons, but this doesn’t mean there is a zero percent chance of tornadoes.  The strongest thunderstorms were forming where it is warmer.  Take a look at the 4 PM surface map:

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If you have been following weather for a long time, have been reading this blog, or are just a big weather enthusiast like many of us, then you can see what is wrong with this picture. The morning thunderstorms messed up the surface conditions just enough to create this mess of boundaries.  There is a slow moving and strong cold front over northwestern Kansas with temperatures in the 40s behind it.  There is a stationary front stalled over northern Oklahoma, and this boundary separates the real juicy air in the 90s from the slightly more stable air over northeastern Kansas.  And, there is a surface low near Childress, TX with an inverted trough extending northeast to just west of Kansas City.   This is just not very organized as we do not have a strong triple point.  Thunderstorms are forming and here is the 4:30 PM radar:

Screen Shot 2018-05-19 at 4.27.23 PM

These weaker thunderstorms were strengthening a bit as I was writing this. The main severe weather risks will be large hail and possibly damaging winds.  These will likely move by during the evening. They could impact the Royals/Yankees game for a time, and then we will be looking at another round of thunderstorms with heavy rain into the colder air possible on Sunday morning. This activity is most likely along and southeast of I-35.

Have a great evening and go over to the Weather2020 blog to join in the conversation.

Gary

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