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Severe Thunderstorm Risk Today

3:30 PM Update:

Tornado Watch!

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A tornado watch was issued, and is in effect until 9 PM.  Let’s track this area of thunderstorms that formed early.  Will there be more development later?

Previous Entry Below:

Good morning bloggers,

There is a risk of severe thunderstorms today. We always have to pay close attention to these risks. Tornadoes kill, and it is something that should never be taken lightly. At the same time, tornadoes are small and I am not sure what the percentage of people that live near KC has ever even seen one tornado, but it may be much lower than you would think. I am going to guess that it is around 10 to 25 percent at the most. Jeff Penner has never seen one and he is 47 years old, born and raised in KC. I have only seen one, and that was in Sitka, KS on a wild tornado chase in 1999.  At the same time 75 tornadoes happen annually in Kansas and around 45 in Missouri, so they will happen, but they just are so small that if you are not near one, you may never see one.  Again, they are deadly, and very scary for so many, unless you are a storm chasing.

The Set-Up:

Screen Shot 2018-04-13 at 6.54.59 AM

These two maps are the same one. I just circled the area to monitor for development. Usually thunderstorms will break through the cap and then we have a few supercells and it could be very bad with all types of severe weather possible. Sometimes, nothing forms at all in these set ups in this region I have circled. The short range models have not been able to break the cap and it is something to monitor. Well, of course we will be very closely.

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Kansas City Weather Timeline:

  • Now to 4 PM: Periods of clouds with a chance of a few weak showers or thunderstorms this morning.  The chance of measurable rain is 40% mostly along and southeast of I-35.  High:  78°
  • 4 PM to 10 PM:  There is a 30% chance of a severe thunderstorm at any one location. The risk would last for around 30 minutes if thunderstorms form.
  • Friday Night: Partly cloudy with the wind shifting to the west and northwest.  Turning colder and windy conditions continuing.  Low:  45°
  • Saturday:Periods of clouds and colder with a 20% chance of showers. High:  51°
  • Saturday night and Sunday:Cloudy with a few snowflakes or raindrops possible in the morning. The chance of measurable precipitation is just 20%. High:  45°]

Severe Weather Risk:

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This is a rather strong upper level storm as you can see above. For it to snow in KC, we would need that upper low to track south  or just east of KC. If it tracks north or northeast of KC we will not see more than a few rain drops of snowflakes on the back side Saturday night and Sunday.

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day1probotlk_1300_torn

There is a lot to monitor today.  Forecasting the weather in KC is once again quite challenging.  Let’s see how it comes together later today.  Thank you for sharing in this weather experience. Go over to the blog on Weather2020.com to join in the conversation as we track this together.

Have a great day!

Gary

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