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Several Chances of Thunderstorms, but this is 2018!

Good Sunday bloggers,

Well we had another night where large clusters of thunderstorms missed our area. They have been tracking from eastern Colorado to eastern Oklahoma, reducing drought conditions in those locations. We may see a few showers and thunderstorms today, but our best chance is later tonight.

Let’s go through our latest thinking.

Early Sunday morning we were tracking two waves of energy. One was located in northeast Oklahoma and this will bring clouds and perhaps a few showers and thunderstorms this morning to our area. The second wave was located in northwest Kansas. This wave will head east in a weakened state and affect our area this afternoon with more clouds and the chance of a few showers and thunderstorms.

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Here is the Storm Prediction Center outlook for today as of 7 AM Sunday. The best chance of widespread severe weather will be in southwest Kansas and the panhandles of Oklahoma and Texas and western Oklahoma. We are on the eastern edge of the slight risk with the timing of our threat, later tonight.

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SUNDAY 4 PM: It will be mostly calm around here with rain in southern Missouri. We may have a few showers and thunderstorms, but the focus for severe thunderstorm development will be in the southwest Plains where a warm and cold front are close together.

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SUNDAY EVENING: The main thunderstorms will be located over southwest Kansas. Damaging winds, large hail and tornadoes will be possible out there. There may be a weaker extension to the east, along I-70, towards our area after 10 PM.

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TONIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT: This is when we have the best chance of thunderstorms as the main area tracks east and northeast. There will be a chance that these thunderstorms cause damaging winds and flash flooding.

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MONDAY MORNING: Rain and thunderstorms will be tracking northeast as they weaken. This still means a likely wet morning rush hour with standing water in places. Showers and thunderstorms may linger until noon.

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MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING: Right now it looks like the best chance of new thunderstorms will be across central and eastern Missouri, but it depends on how things are left after the activity tonight.

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TUESDAY: The morning into the afternoon look dry as it becomes very warm and humid. Then, a new weak front and disturbance move in. Thunderstorms will likely form during the evening from eastern Kansas to northern Missouri. These would head south and have the chance to be severe with damaging winds and flash flooding the main threats.

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Rainfall in most locations, by Wednesday, should be 1″ to 2″ with a few locations seeing 2″-5″. The location of 2″-5″ rainfall amounts is yet to be determined as it is thunderstorm weather and the models do not do well with predicting bulls eyes of rain. Let’s hope your yard or farm receives the rain it needs. If you get missed by Wednesday, it looks hot and dry into the weekend and early next week.

Have a great week.

Jeff Penner

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